The Planet Can’t Wait for Trump

Published in El País
(Spain) on 2 June 2017
by Juan López de Uralde (link to originallink to original)
Translated from by Caitlin Taylor. Edited by Helaine Schweitzer.
The great paradox is that the president of the U.S. is going to seriously damage the interests of his own country by withdrawing from the climate agreement.

This time the world is not going to wait for the United States. Now, when the impact of climate change is most visible, is not the time to stop. Although Trump wants to withdraw from the Paris Climate Agreement, the international community is going to continue moving forward. This, and nothing else, was the consensus of the summit held in Marrakech shortly after the election of Donald Trump. That meeting was marked by the impact of the election, but in contrast to previous occasions, the unanimous reaction was that the Paris Climate Agreement would have to continue moving forward in order to stop climate change, regardless of who sits in the Oval Office.

The main damage caused by Trump’s decision affects the United States, its companies and energy sector, which could see themselves excluded from a global technological movement that is driving changes to the energy model. Therefore, it’s not by chance that there has been an internal rebellion led on this occasion by American companies, and not by ecological organizations, worried about the impact on their businesses. The great paradox is that Trump, who coined the phrase, “The concept of global warming was created by and for the Chinese in order to make U.S. manufacturing noncompetitive" is going to seriously damage the interests of his own country by withdrawing from the climate agreement.

The United States is the most influential negotiator in climate change summits. Since 1992 in Rio de Janeiro, heads of state from all over the world have agreed on the necessity of facing up to man-made climate change, and the U.S. has been a part of the entire negotiation process. Perhaps it is because of this that the fight against climate change has not been very effective: Over the years Washington has put a lot of sticks in the wheels.

When the Kyoto Protocol was signed in 1997, Al Gore, then vice president and now a significant figure in the fight against climate change, did not achieve its ratification. Nonetheless, in this negotiation, the European Union did play a leading role that made it possible for Kyoto to go ahead. Trump’s withdrawal could mean an opportunity for Europe, which could take back the environmental leadership that it lost with the unsuccessful Copenhagen Summit.

After the failure of Copenhagen, Paris did manage to get the international community to agree on a promise to reduce emissions. The United States’ presence at the agreement was one of the reasons for optimism: For the first time, it seemed to unconditionally join the global pact.

Remember that the United States, for many years, has been the most contaminating country in the world. With an economy based on fossil fuels, only China’s runaway growth, propelled by coal, caused it to lose this dubious honor.

Environmental, economic and social motives are giving rise to changes to the energy model and the progress seems unstoppable. This explains North American companies’ unease at Trump’s decision. The withdrawal from Paris by the U.S. is bad news for the planet, but on this occasion, the international community has said loud and clearly that the change to the model is irreversible. The world is not going to stop so that Trump can get off; but if he wants to do so, inertia will slam into him.


El planeta no puede esperar a Trump

La gran paradoja es que el presidente de EE UU va a dañar gravemente los intereses de su propio país saliendo del acuerdo climático

Esta vez el mundo no va a esperar a Estados Unidos. Cuando más visible es el impacto del cambio climático, no es momento de parar la acción. Aunque Trump quiera bajarse del Acuerdo de París, la comunidad internacional va a seguir adelante. Este, y no otro, fue el consenso en la Cumbre celebrada en Marrakech a los pocos días de la elección de Donald Trump. Aquella reunión estuvo marcada por el impacto que causó esta elección, pero a diferencia de anteriores ocasiones, la reacción unánime fue la de que había que seguir adelante con los Acuerdos de París para frenar el cambio climático, independientemente de quien se sentara en el despacho oval.

El daño principal de la decisión de Trump afecta a los propios Estados Unidos, sus empresas y su sector energético, que pueden verse fuera del movimiento mundial y tecnológico que impulsa el cambio de modelo energético. Por ello no es casual que se haya producido una rebelión interna liderada en esta ocasión por las empresas americanas, y no por organizaciones ecologistas, preocupadas por el impacto en sus negocios. La gran paradoja es que Trump, que acuñó eso de “el cambio climático es un invento chino para perjudicar a América”, va a dañar gravemente los intereses de su propio país saliendo del acuerdo climático.

Estados Unidos es el negociador más influyente en las cumbres del clima. Desde que en 1992 en Río de Janeiro, jefes de Estado del mundo entero se pusieran de acuerdo en la necesidad de hacer frente al cambio climático de origen antropogénico, EE UU ha formado parte en todo el proceso negociador. Quizás por eso la lucha contra el cambio climático no haya sido demasiado efectiva: a lo largo de estos años Washington ha puesto muchos palos en las ruedas.

Cuando en 1997 se firmó el Protocolo de Kioto, el entonces vicepresidente, ahora figura relevante en la lucha por el clima, Al Gore, no consiguió su ratificación. Sin embargo, en aquella negociación, la Unión Europea sí jugó un papel de liderazgo que hizo posible que Kioto saliera adelante. El actual abandono por parte de Trump puede suponer una oportunidad para Europa, que puede recuperar el liderazgo ambiental que perdió en la fallida Cumbre de Copenhague.

Tras el fracaso de Copenhague, París sí consiguió poner de acuerdo a la comunidad internacional en un compromiso de reducción de emisiones. La presencia de Estados Unidos en el acuerdo fue uno de los motivos para el optimismo: por primera vez parecía sumar sin condiciones al pacto global.

Recordemos que Estados Unidos ha sido durante muchos años el país más contaminador del mundo. Con una economía basada en los combustibles fósiles, sólo el desbocado crecimiento de China impulsado por el carbón le hizo perder ese dudoso honor.

Motivos ambientales, pero también económicos y sociales, están propiciando el cambio de modelo energético, y el avance parece imparable. Esto explica el nerviosismo de las empresas norteamericanas por la decisión de Trump. Es una mala noticia para el planeta que EEUU abandone París, pero en esta ocasión la comunidad internacional ha dicho alto y claro que el cambio de modelo es irreversible. El mundo no se va a parar para que Trump se baje; pero si quiere hacerlo, la inercia le hará estamparse.
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