US-South Korea Talks: Is Everyone on the Same Page about ‘the North’?

Published in Nishinippon Shimbun
(Japan) on 2 July 2017
by (link to originallink to original)
Translated from by Chris Hennessy. Edited by Matthew Boyer.
United States President Donald Trump and South Korean President Moon Jae-in met for the first time in Washington, D.C. Both leaders, eyeing North Korea and its continued development of nuclear weapons and missile technology, confirmed plans to strengthen the U.S.-South Korea alliance. President Moon had previously indicated a departure from the U.S.-South Korea position over the handling of North Korea after his inauguration.

From the start, Moon, who is a president with an innovative bent, took a position of financial ease toward North Korea, and was in favor of working toward denuclearization through negotiation. During the South Korean presidential election, there was criticism of the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense missile system in South Korea, the installation of which was determined by the U.S. during the administration of the previous president Park Geun-hye. For this reason, animosity toward Moon has grown within the Trump administration.

During his visit to the U.S., Moon worked toward allaying U.S. distrust through such measures as announcing that South Korea would not scrap the THAAD installation.

There were efforts to rebuild trust in the talks by complimenting Trump, telling him that if were able to resolve the nuclear issue, he would be considered an elite president. During talks, the two leaders made an effort toward agreement for now.

However, even though they agreed to a framework for action, it is still too early to say the abyss between both sides has been bridged. This is because the two countries are still far apart in their approach to denuclearization.

Moon believes that beginning talks is possible if North Korea freezes its nuclear and missile testing. This is viewed as a two-step solution with the freeze being the entry point for negotiations and denuclearization being the exit.

On the other hand, Trump is skeptical about starting negotiations using this two-step solution. He is planning to immediately strengthen pressure on North Korea by encouraging Chinese sanctions and by dangling the possibility of military action.

As long as these differences persist, the response from countries affected by North Korea will fall short, and the efforts to exert pressure will go nowhere.

Through these talks, plans have been put into place for the U.S. and South Korea, along with Japan, to have a top-level dialogue when they meet at the Group of 20 summit in Germany at the beginning of this month.* At this juncture, the U.S., Japan and South Korea must align their strategies, and once they decide on the best role-sharing scheme for the three nations, they must piece together a process for working toward the denuclearization of North Korea.

*Editor’s note: This article was written prior to the Group of 20 summit in Hamburg on July 7 and July 8, but the editors believe its perspective is still relevant.


米韓首脳会談 「対北」足並みそろったか

米国のトランプ大統領と韓国の文在寅(ムンジェイン)大統領がワシントンで初の首脳会談を行った。両首脳は核・ミサイル開発を続ける北朝鮮をにらみ、米韓の同盟関係を強化する方針を確認した。

 北朝鮮への対応を巡っては、文大統領の就任以降、米韓の足並みの乱れが指摘されてきた。

 革新系の大統領である文氏は、もともと北朝鮮に融和的なスタンスで、対話による非核化に積極的だ。大統領選では、米国が朴槿恵(パククネ)前政権時代に韓国へ配備を決めた「高高度防衛ミサイル(THAAD)」に批判的だった経緯もある。このため、トランプ政権は文氏への警戒感を強めていた。

 文氏は訪米中、THAAD配備撤回はしないと表明するなど、米国側の不信解消に努めた。「核問題を解決できれば偉大な大統領になれる」とトランプ氏を持ち上げ、首脳間の信頼構築も図った。会談では両首脳がひとまず、結束をアピールしてみせた格好だ。

 ただ、大枠では合意したものの、両国の溝が埋まったと判断するのはまだ早い。核放棄に向けたアプローチについて、両首脳の姿勢には大きな差異があるからだ。

 文氏は北朝鮮が核やミサイル実験を凍結すれば対話の開始は可能との考え方だ。凍結が交渉の入り口で、核放棄が出口という2段階の解決策を想定している。

 一方トランプ氏は、凍結段階での交渉開始に否定的だ。軍事行動の可能性をちらつかせ、中国に制裁履行を促すなど、当面は北朝鮮への徹底的な圧力強化を図る。

 こうした食い違いを残したままでは、関係国の北朝鮮への対応にほころびが生じ、圧力の効果も上がらないだろう。

 今回の会談では今月上旬にドイツで開かれる20カ国・地域(G20)首脳会合に合わせて、米韓に日本を加えた3カ国の首脳会談を実施することも決まった。こうした場で、日米韓が戦略を擦り合わせ、3カ国の適切な役割分担によって、北朝鮮の非核化に向けたプロセスを組み立てる必要がある。
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