G-20 and North Korea: What Should We Do about This Stalemate?

Published in Nishi Nippon Shimbun
(Japan) on 12 July 2017
by (link to originallink to original)
Translated from by Fatuma Muhamed. Edited by Christine Murrison.
Leaders of the Group of 20 held their summit meeting in Hamburg from July 7-8, amid growing worldwide tension that North Korea is ready to launch intercontinental ballistic missiles.

Leaders from Japan, the United States, South Korea, China, Russia and other participating nations held several separate talks concurrent with the summits. Japan and the U.S. used the series of summit meetings as an opportunity to come up with strategies to strengthen the pressure on North Korea, putting their heads together with the leaders of other involved nations.

But in fact, there was clear discord among the G-20 nations, and they could not create a unified response to the issue. Rather, their anti-North Korea countermeasures were at an obvious stalemate.

The biggest reason for this is that there is a gap that has not been bridged. On one side is the “pressuring faction” that insists on putting the most pressure possible on North Korea. On the other side is the “discussion faction,” which stresses the importance of talks in order to ease tensions.

Japan's Prime Minister Shinzo Abe and the United States’ President Donald Trump, who advocate pressuring North Korea, met for separate talks with China's Xi Jinping and Russia's President Vladimir Putin, who want to address the issue through dialogue. Abe and Trump had hoped for an agreement to clamp down on North Korea, but did not get a favorable response.

Initially, Trump sought to make China strengthen sanctions against North Korea and to withdraw concessions. This was ineffective and worsened China's dissatisfaction.

On the other hand, China and Russia proposed that the United States and South Korea stop large-scale military exercises in exchange for the cessation of North Korea's nuclear development.

In order to solve the problem of nuclear missiles in North Korea, denuclearization must be the final goal. It is essential that Japan, the United States, South Korea, China and Russia cooperate to run through possible scenarios: at what stage should we open a dialogue? How should negotiations proceed? And what sort of crisis management should we establish in case of an accidental discharge?

Though it is easy to blame China or Russia for the current stalemate, that will not solve anything. If we look at the Trump administration's unclear diplomacy in Asia, it seems like now is the time for Japan to play a part in creating these scenarios and coordinating between nations.


 北朝鮮が大陸間弾道ミサイル(ICBM)の発射実験に踏み切り国際社会の緊張が高まるさなか、先週末ドイツで20カ国・地域(G20)首脳会合が開かれた。

 会合に並行し、日本、米国、韓国、中国、ロシアなど参加国首脳による個別会談が数多く行われた。日米両政府はG20会合や一連の首脳会談を契機に、関係国がスクラムを組んで北朝鮮への圧力を強化する戦略を思い描いていた。

 だが実際には各国の足並みの乱れが目立ち、一致した対応を打ち出すことはできなかった。むしろ、対北朝鮮政策の手詰まりを際立たせた格好だ。

 最大の原因は、北朝鮮に最大限の圧力をかけるべきだと主張する「圧力派」と、当面の緊張緩和に向けて対話を重視する「対話派」の溝が埋まらないことである。

 「圧力派」である日本の安倍晋三首相と米国のトランプ大統領は連携し、「対話派」の中国の習近平国家主席やロシアのプーチン大統領に、個別会談で北朝鮮への締め付け強化を求めたが、芳しい回答は得られなかったようだ。

 トランプ氏は当初、北朝鮮に対する制裁を中国に強化させ、北朝鮮の譲歩を引き出そうと企てた。その効果は上がっておらず、中国に不満を募らせている。

 一方、中国とロシアは、北朝鮮の核・ミサイル開発停止と引き換えに、米韓による大規模軍事演習の停止を提案した。米国のアジアでの軍事的存在感を弱めようとの思惑が透けて見える。

 北朝鮮の核・ミサイル問題解決のためには、非核化を最終目標に据え、どの段階で対話を開始し、どう交渉を進めるか、さらに暴発に備えてどんな危機管理をしておくか‐などについて日米韓と中ロがシナリオを共有し、着実に実行することが不可欠である。

 現在の手詰まりの責任を中国やロシアに帰するのは容易だが、それでは何も解決しない。トランプ政権のアジア外交の陣容も定まらない現状を鑑みれば、日本がシナリオ作りや関係国の調整に役割を果たすべき時ではなかろうか。
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