US Sanctions on Russia Kill 2 Birds with 1 Stone

Published in Huanqiu
(China) on
by (link to originallink to original)
Translated from by Fiona McAllister. Edited by Piotr Narel.
The U.S. House of Representatives has voted to sanction Russia due to suspected interference in the 2016 U.S. election as well as the crisis in Ukraine. The bill imposes economic sanctions against select Russian persons and entities, and the expanded list of sanctioned targets includes a special category of European energy companies which work in collaboration with Russian energy companies. An unusual stipulation in the bill also requires Trump to first obtain the approval of Congress in order to relax these sanctions.

The U.S. is killing two birds with one stone through these sanctions. By targeting Russia’s energy companies, military, banks and important businesses, Russia’s comprehensive strength is weakened. The move also hurts European Union energy businesses, meaning that there is an open road ahead for U.S. energy imports into Europe. The intent of the U.S. strategy here is very clear.

EU businesses are suffering under the U.S.-imposed sanctions. Five big players in the European energy market for the Nord Stream 2 project* will bear the brunt of these sanctions, including Germany’s Eon, Holland’s Shell Oil, France’s Engie, Italy’s Eni Group and Austria’s Oil and Gas Group.

Russia announced the building of the Nord Stream 2 in 2015. The pipeline will run between Russia and Germany along the bottom of the Baltic Sea, parallel to the first Nord Stream pipeline. Once built, it will be able to transport 55 billion cubic meters (approximately 14.5 trillion gallons) of natural gas. The project is estimated to cost 9.5 billion euros (approximately $11.1 billion), and five European energy companies have already promised to supply almost half of that figure, 4.5 billion euros (approximately $382.5 billion), in a long-term loan. U.S. sanctions will disrupt the Nord Stream 2 project and U.S. gas will replace Russian gas to meet the European market demand.

The unilateral action of the U.S. is damaging European energy security and creating great resentment in Europe. Germany, Austria, France, etc. have issued protests, saying that the action introduced a “new and very negative quality in European-American relations” which is “unacceptable.” European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker issued a statement demanding that the U.S. give “public or written reassurance,” that European interests will not be implicated in these sanctions. If the U.S. chooses to ignore the EU’s interests, the EU will take legal action to prevent new sanctions from obtaining approval or enforcement within the EU and will raise an appeal with the World Trade Organization and others.

Responding to Europe’s concerns, the U.S. added that Trump would coordinate with Europe when implementing the sanctions to the bill. However, it is certain that no matter how Trump coordinates with European countries, there is something that cannot change – the fact that both sides will need to go through careful deliberations and reach a solid consensus.

These U.S. sanctions on Russia have hurt trans-Atlantic understanding. Taking Europe’s interests into account, the U.S. has, in the past, excluded Russian natural gas and crude oil exports from sanctions. But in making gains from science and technology, the U.S. is already the world’s largest energy producer and urgently needs to export its energy. Considering the new “America first” policy, it can only be expected that the aforementioned common understanding will be abandoned.

Besides, Nord Stream 2 is a controversial project in Europe. Poland, the Baltic States, Ukraine and others have intensely opposed the project, believing that it will cause Ukraine, Slovakia and Poland to lose several billion euros in income, as well as weaken the price and position of European energy in relation to Russian energy. There are disagreements on this within Europe; using Poland and others to contain the EU’s countermeasures gives the U.S. the opportunity to increase its exports of energy to the EU. The first shipment of U.S. natural gas arrived in Poland a few days ago, beginning a new phase of cooperation between the U.S. and Poland, and possibly even the whole of Eastern and Central Europe.

What is even more significant, though, is the shared objective of the Republican and Democratic Parties, which has been strangling the Nord Stream 2 project. Last August, the former U.S. vice president explicitly declared U.S. opposition to Nord Stream 2, believing that it will make Europe more dependent on Russian energy. This suggests that the U.S. has wanted to break the Russian dominance over the European energy market, allowing the U.S. to export its own energy to Europe.

It has been reported that besides Nord Stream 2, U.S. sanctions on Russia are focused on another eight or more Russian-EU projects. Because of this, it is not difficult to see that, going through the U.S.’ toolbox of sanctions, this strategy is not just a tool to create a foreign affairs battle but also a weapon to create U.S. jobs and increase exports.

Because the new U.S. bill on Russian sanctions received overwhelming support from both the House of Representatives and the Senate, there is no suspense regarding whether or not the bill will become law. Now that both sides have made their positions clear, the battle in favor of and against sanctions has commenced. The results will be hard to predict but will certainly increase the current discord between the U.S. and Europe.

The author is a Huanqiu web commentator and former ambassador.

*Editor's note: Nord Stream 2 is an expansion to an offshore, natural gas pipeline, which runs from Vyborg, Russia, to Greifswald, Germany.



吴正龙:美国对俄罗斯新制裁一石二鸟
 
美国参众两院以俄罗斯涉嫌干涉美国2016年总统选举和乌克兰危机等为由,通过法案,追加对俄相关个人和实体的经济制裁,同时扩大制裁对象,将与俄能源合作的欧洲能源企业也纳入裁制范畴。罕见的是,法案还规定特朗普若要放松对俄制裁,须先获得国会批准。
  美国此轮对俄制裁一石二鸟,既打击俄能源、军工、银行等重要行业,削弱俄综合实力,又牺牲欧洲利益,为美国能源产品进入欧洲市场铺平道路,战略意图十分明显。
  遭受美国制裁的欧洲公司,首当其冲的将是与俄罗斯在“北溪2号”项目上有合作的5家欧洲能源巨头:德国意昂能源集团、壳牌石油、法国能源、奥地利石油天然气集团和意大利埃尼集团。
  2015年,俄宣布建设从俄罗斯到德国通过波罗的海海底的“北溪2号”,与之前的北溪管道平行。“北溪2号”建成后每年将再增加550亿立方米天然气的输送能力。该项目估计需要资金95亿欧元。5家欧洲能源公司已承诺提供一半47.5亿欧元的长期贷款。美国制裁将搅黄“北溪2号”项目,从而为美国天然气部分取代俄罗斯,进入欧洲提供“市场需求”。
  美国单边行动危害欧洲的能源安全,引发欧洲强烈不满。德国、奥地利和法国等发出抗议,称“这在美国和欧洲的关系中引入了非常消极的新元素”,对俄制裁“违反国际法”,“不可接受”。此外,欧盟委员会主席容克发表声明,要求美国提供“公开或书面保证”,确保欧盟利益在制裁中不受牵连;如果美国无视欧盟利益一意孤行,欧盟将使用法律手段防止新制裁在欧盟内部“获得认可或得到强制执行”;“向世界贸易组织提出申诉”等等。
  为回应欧洲国家的关切,美国在法案中加了一个“尾巴”,即特朗普总统“在执行制裁时要与欧洲盟国进行协调”。然而,可以肯定的是,不管特朗普如何与欧洲国家展开协调,但都改变不了针对欧洲国家的内容。这些内容是两党经过深思熟虑、高度契合的共识。
  美国此轮对俄制裁打破了微妙的跨大西洋共识。美国因顾及欧洲国家的利益,以往均将对俄天然气和原油管道出口排除在制裁范围之外。得益于科技进步,美国现已成为世界第一大能源生产国,急需为其能源产品出口寻找出路。在“美国优先”原则之下,上述共识被美国抛弃是顺理成章的事。
  再者,“北溪2号”在欧洲是一个有争议的项目。波兰、波罗的海三国和乌克兰等国强烈反对该项目,认为不仅会令乌克兰、斯洛伐克和波兰等国失去数十亿欧元的过境收入,还会削弱欧盟在与俄能源贸易中的定价地位。欧盟内部在这个问题上的分歧,为美国加大对欧洲能源产品出口,利用波兰等国家牵制欧盟出台反制措施,提供可乘之机。日前,第一艘装载美国液化天然气的运输船抵达波兰港口,开启了美国与波兰乃至整个中东欧国家能源合作的新时期。
  更重要的是,扼杀“北溪2号”项目是美国共和与民主两党的共同目标。去年8月,美国前副总统拜登明确表态反对“北溪2号”,认为“北溪2号”将使欧洲更加依赖俄罗斯的能源,其背后的潜台词是,要打破俄在欧洲能源市场的垄断地位,为美国能源产品出口欧洲提供市场准入。
  据报道,除“北溪2号”外,美国此轮对俄制裁还将涉及约8个与欧洲有关的项目。由此不难看出,经过美国的“创新”,制裁在美国工具箱中,已不仅仅是外交斗争的工具,也已成为创造就业、增加出口的利器。
  由于美国对俄新制裁法案在两院获得压倒性支持,法案成为法律几无悬念。现在,双方已摆开架势,制裁与反制裁争斗的大幕业已拉开。结果难以逆料,但有一点是肯定的,这场争斗将使本已不和的美欧关系更加困难重重。(作者是前驻外大使、环球网特约评论员)
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