North Korea’s Missile Flight

Published in Kahoku Shimpo
(Japan) on 30 August 2017
by (link to originallink to original)
Translated from by Deborah Chapin. Edited by Margaret Dalzell.
Early in the morning, North Korea fired a ballistic missile. It flew over Hokkaido’s Erimo Cape before dropping into the sea about 1,180 kilometers from the cape.

It has been said that this is the fifth time North Korea has launched a missile through Japan’s airspace. In the past when a man-made satellite was launched, there was no prior warning either. This was utterly vile and inexcusably reckless.

There was no report of falling objects or damage to any ships. However, the missile was a new type, the “Mars 12,” which has the ability to fly a distance of about 2,700 kilometers. This could pass over the entire nation of Japan, and it is said that it has the power to make a surprise attack anywhere at any time on the U.S. military bases in Japan.

Prime Minister Shinzo Abe displayed a sense of urgency, saying that there has yet to be a more deeply serious threat, which will considerably harm the peace and safety of the area.

It is natural that Japan cooperates with the United States and South Korea, as well as requests that the U.N. Security Council hold an emergency meeting to strengthen the pressure on North Korea to abandon its development of missiles. I would like to see a discussion addressing ways to strengthen these coordinating efforts, including the subject of China’s oil embargo.

Because of the current situation, there are more talks within Japan of strengthening security. Preparation is vital. At the same time, it is necessary to carefully consider why a missile was fired into Japan’s airspace at this point.

North Korea has been fixated on nuclear missile development, in order to aim a direct hit at the United States and hinder its ability to attack. Improving the system to this end has been North Korea’s ultimate goal. As a step in the plan to compel the United States to cease political countermeasures and pressure aimed at it, North Korea declared in early August that it would have four missiles ready to fire into the sea surrounding the U.S. territory of Guam.

However, there are those who think that North Korea sensed that the risk of inviting retaliation from the United States was too great and took aim at Japan, an ally, instead, in order to raise tensions and show the United States that it will not back down. That way, the results of its efforts could be shown to the citizens of North Korea as well.

If the purpose of the missile launches is to make the United States change its policy, then I would like for excessive reactions to be avoided. It is important for discussions about preparations to take place with a calm analysis of the information and situation.

I do not want President Donald Trump to lose his composure. Perhaps North Korea’s threats were a blatant response to Trump’s remarks about bringing “fire and fury.” Aggressive conduct by the American leader, whether by conventional force or nuclear power, can cause paranoia in the enemy and lead to an accidental confrontation. It would be best to be cautious about this.

Keeping in mind, after the Security Council imposed a new and complete prohibition on North Korean coal exports, a 100,000-people protest took place in Pyongyang. It can be said that a mass display of domestic unity can be seen as a sign of a leader’s sense of impending danger. I would like to see the international community fulfill their obligations, including, of course, China and Russia.



北朝鮮がきのう早朝、弾道ミサイル1発を発射。北海道襟裳岬の上空を通過し、襟裳岬の東約1180キロの太平洋上に落下した。
 北朝鮮のミサイルが日本上空を飛び越えたのは5回目という。人工衛星打ち上げと称し過去にはあった事前通告もなかった。この上もなく悪質で、許し難い暴挙である。
 ミサイル落下物は確認されず、船舶にも被害がなかったのは何よりだ。だが、発射されたのは新型中距離弾道ミサイル「火星12」とみられ、約2700キロという飛行距離は日本全土に届く計算で、在日米軍基地を含め日本ならばいつでも、どこでも奇襲が可能な能力を示したといえる。
 「これまでにない深刻かつ重大な脅威で、地域の平和と安全を著しく損なう」と、安倍晋三首相が危機感をあらわにしたのは理解できる。
 北朝鮮の核・ミサイル開発放棄に向けた国際社会による圧力強化のため、日本が米韓と連携し、国連安全保障理事会の緊急会合開催を求めたのは当然のことだ。中国による石油禁輸を含め、包囲網の強化策を議論してもらいたい。
 今回の事態を受け日本国内では「備え」を強化するための議論が高まるとみられる。
 備えは重要だ。同時に、なぜ、この時期に日本上空に向けミサイルを発射したのか、慎重に分析する必要がある。
 北朝鮮が核・ミサイル開発にこだわるのは、米本土を直撃する核弾頭搭載ミサイルを持つことで、米国による攻撃を抑止し、体制の維持につなげるのが究極の目的だ。
 今月上旬に4発の火星12を米領グアム沖海上に撃ち込む案を検討していると表明したのも、その一環といえ、米国に「敵視政策」や圧力路線の撤回を迫るためだ。
 だが、実行すれば米国の反撃を招くリスクが大きいため見送り、代わりに日本上空を狙い同盟国・日本をけん制し地域の緊張を高めることで、一歩も引かない姿勢を米国に示したのではないか。国内に対しても一定の成果は強調できた。そんな見方もある。
 発射の目的が米国に政策転換を迫るためだとしたら、過度の反応は避けたい。備えの強化を巡る議論は、情報・情勢の冷静な分析の上に立って行われる必要があろう。
 トランプ米大統領にも冷静さを失ってもらいたくない。今月上旬、北朝鮮が「炎と怒り」に直面するかもと露骨な脅しをかけた。通常戦力でも核戦力でも圧倒的な米国の指導者による好戦的言動は、相手に疑心暗鬼を生み暴発を招きかねない。心してほしい。
 留意すべきは、北朝鮮石炭の輸出全面禁止を含む新たな安保理制裁決議を受け、平壌で10万人規模の抗議集会があったことである。大量動員による内部結束の誇示は指導部の危機感の表れと言え、決議が大打撃となる証しだ。中ロは無論、国際社会は決議の履行に徹底して取り組みたい。
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