Formal Diplomatic Talks Matter to Standoff between US and North Korea

Published in Seoul Shinmun
(South Korea) on 1 Oct 2017
by Editorial (link to originallink to original)
Translated from by Myung Jeon. Edited by Rachel Pott.
U.S. Secretary of State Rex W. Tillerson said, “We have lines of communications to Pyongyang … We have a couple, three channels open to Pyongyang.” His remarks confirm that both Washington and Pyongyang are gauging, through a diplomatic back channel, whether their counterpart is willing to open up dialogue. This is the first time that a top U.S. official has held out the possibility of talks between the two countries since President Donald Trump took office in January 2017. Mr. Tillerson’s comments are notable because they come after his meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping and other top officials: His words might be the result of some sort of U.S. diplomatic engagement with North Korea.

The back-channel communications between the adversaries are known to have been established in New York, where the United Nations is headquartered, and in other cities around the world. Since they are used for informal talks, these back channels are less than the proper line through which to directly address North Korea’s nuclear and missile program.

Meanwhile, Tillerson’s statement was followed in quick succession by that of State Department spokesperson Heather Nauert. "Despite assurances that the United States is not interested in promoting the collapse of the current regime, pursuing regime change, accelerating reunification of the peninsula or mobilizing forces north of the DMZ, North Korean officials have shown no indication that they are interested in or are ready for talks regarding denuclearization." It is questionable whether the Trump administration is capable of providing this level of detail without having high-level talks with North Korea.

U.S.-North Korean talks on North Korea’s nuclear missile program date back to the Clinton administration, or 1993, when the recalcitrant regime conducted its first successful missile test and withdrew from the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons. Since then, the two countries have sent their top officials to Washington and Pyongyang. In 1993, Jimmy Carter visited the North Korean capital to negotiate with Kim Il Sung, the founding leader of the country. Under George W. Bush, who took the firmest stand against Kim’s regime among previous U.S. presidents and referred to the rogue nation as an “axis of evil,” U.S. Special Envoy Jack Pritchard met with Li Hyong Chol, North Korea’s permanent representative to the United Nations in June 2001, six months after Mr. Bush’s inauguration. During the Obama administration, U.S. special representative for North Korea policy, Stephen W. Bosworth, went to Pyongyang as an envoy and met with North Korea's then Vice Foreign Minister Kang Sok Ju.

Today, under the Trump administration, the adversaries are engaged in an aggressive war of nerves over starting up talks. Recent belligerent exchanges of personal insults and threats of war between Mr. Trump and Kim Jong Un – with the president warning that the U.S. would “totally destroy” North Korea if necessary in a speech to the United Nations General Assembly, and Kim saying that he was considering the “highest level of hard-line countermeasure in history” – are a lot like a game of chicken, where the two sides try to see who will initiate dialogue. All in all, Washington and Pyongyang are failing to find a way out of this impasse, as their claims are in adamant opposition to each other, with the U.S. saying denuclearization first, and North Korea countering with no nuclear disarmament without dialogue.

Oct. 10, 2017, is the 72nd anniversary of the founding of the North Korea's ruling Workers’ Party of Korea. Unless the two nations reach a point of agreement on opening up dialogue, it is highly likely that Kim Jong Un will continue to conduct provocative acts. The isolated regime should abandon its brinkmanship, which is driving up tensions around the world, as further engagement in the deadly game will only court U.S. military action, not talks. The Trump administration should also recognize the contradiction in its policy on denuclearization as a precondition for talks – this barrier for U.S.-North Korean talks abets North Korea's advancement toward full intercontinental ballistic missile nuclear capability. To resolve the crisis on the Korean Peninsula and North Korea’s nuclear missile program, both Washington and Pyongyang are left with no option but to have formal diplomatic talks and communicate with sincerity.


북·미, 소통 격 높여 진정성 있는 대화를

北, 벼랑끝 전술은 화만 불러들여… 美, 조건 낮추고 고위급 내보내야

렉스 틸러슨 미국 국무장관이 “북한과 소통 라인을 가지고 있으며 2~3개 정도의 채널을 열어 두고 있다”고 밝혔다. 양쪽이 막후 채널을 통해 대화 의사를 타진하고 있음을 확인한 발언이다. 미 정부 고위관계자가 북·미 대화 채널 가동을 밝힌 것은 지난 1월 도널드 트럼프 정부 출범 이후 처음이다. 특히 틸러슨 장관의 언급은 시진핑 중국 국가주석 등과 회담한 뒤 나온 것으로, 미·중의 소통 결과일 수 있다는 점에서 주목된다.

북·미의 막후 채널은 유엔본부가 있는 뉴욕 등지에서 가동되고 있는 것으로 알려져 있다. 다만, 이들 채널은 연락 업무 정도의 채널로 현안인 북한 핵·미사일을 정면으로 다루기에는 적절하다고 볼 수 없다. 헤더 노어트 미 국무부 대변인이 틸러슨 발언 직후 “미국은 (북한) 정권 붕괴 촉진, 체제 변화 추구, 한반도 통일 가속화, 비무장지대(DMZ) 이북의 군사력 동원에 관심이 없다고 말하고 있는데도 불구하고 북한 당국자들은 그들이 비핵화 대화에 관심이 있다거나 준비가 돼 있다는 어떠한 것도 보여 주지 않았다”고 말했다. 고위급 대화를 가져보지도 않고 이런 논평을 할 수 있는지 의문이다.

북·미는 빌 클린턴 행정부 시절인 1994년 1차 북핵 위기를 전후해 지미 카터 전 대통령이 방북해 김일성 주석과 회담한 것을 비롯해 평양과 워싱턴에 고위급 인사를 보내 대화를 가져왔다. 북한을 ‘악의 축’이라 부르며, 역대 어느 미 대통령보다 강경했던 조지 W 부시 대통령 때도 취임 6개월 만인 2001년 6월 잭 프리처드 특사와 리형철 유엔 주재 북 대표부 대사가 접촉을 가졌다. 버락 오바마 행정부 시절에는 스티븐 보즈워스 대북 정책 특별대표가 대통령 특사 자격으로 평양을 방문해 강석주 외무성 부상 등과 회담한 바 있다.

현재 북·미는 대화 재개와 관련해 고도의 신경전을 벌이고 있다. 유엔총회 때 트럼프 대통령의 ‘북한의 완전 파괴’, 김정은의 ‘사상 초강경 대응 조치’의 강 대 강 말폭탄도 실은 어느 쪽이 먼저 두 팔을 올리고 대화의 손을 내밀 것인지 하는 치킨 게임 성격이 짙다. 하지만 비핵화를 먼저 이뤄야 대화할 수 있다는 미국과, 비핵화를 위해서는 먼저 대화를 가져야 한다는 북한 주장이 맞서 북·미 대화의 입구조차 찾지 못하고 있다.

10일은 북한 노동당 창건 72주년이다. 북·미가 대화 접점을 모색하지 못하는 이상 북한은 도발을 계속할 가능성이 높다. 그러나 북한이 긴장을 최고조로 높이는 벼랑끝 전술을 더 구사하다가는 대화는커녕 미국의 군사옵션을 자초할 공산이 큰 만큼 자제해야 한다. 미국 또한 ‘비핵화가 대화의 조건’이라는 장벽이 오히려 북한의 핵·미사일 완성을 방조하는 모순임을 깨달아야 한다. 한반도 위기를 해소하고 핵·미사일 문제를 해결하고 싶다면 양쪽이 대화의 격을 높여 진정성 있는 소통을 할 수밖에 없다.
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