The Longest 90 Miles in the Western Hemisphere

Published in El País
(Spain) on 25 November 2017
by Jan Martínez Ahrens (link to originallink to original)
Translated from by Lena Greenberg. Edited by Helaine Schweitzer.
Trump has satisfied his anti-Castro supporters with his Cuba policy, though he hasn’t returned to Cold War-era relations. Now the future depends on the transition within Cuba itself.

It takes several generations to cross certain spaces. Such is the case of the 90 miles that separate Cuba from the United States. It’s a highly complicated area, and one in which the current White House has undone much of the progress made during the last third of Barack Obama’s administration.

Under the Donald Trump presidency, the thawing of relations has come to an end, trade relations have worsened, the military has been purged, and tourism has been hindered. The blow has been significant, but not definitive. Washington, despite its rhetoric, has kept its embassy in Havana and has made sure to restore the “wet foot, dry foot” policy that allowed Cubans to enter the United States without a visa.

The result has been the creation of a delicate balance: Trump has satisfied his anti-Castro supporters, though he hasn’t returned to Cold War-era relations. “For 50 years it was impossible to have a dialogue; now, though it’s very weak, the dialogue survives. We’re not in the pre-Obama situation, but rather a new normal has been established,” explains Gustavo Arnavat, of the Center for Strategic and International Studies.

“Trump has kept his promise and now he can leave it at that. The problem now comes from the unwillingness to rebuild,” says Michael Shifter, president of the Inter-American Dialogue think tank. It’s an obvious challenge. After 10 months in office, Trump has pruned relations with Cuba to the point that only a stunted trunk remains. Hardly anyone expects it to come to life again in the short term. That will take time, and above all, it is contingent upon there being no new crises sparked by uncertainties on the island.

The main threat to renewed development of relations comes from the strange acoustic attacks, the culprit of which still hasn’t been found.* The most developed hypothesis is that the attacks are part of an operation led by factions opposed to the opening-up of diplomatic relations, as Ben Rhodes, former presidential adviser and one of the architects of the thaw in Cuba-U.S. relations, explained to El País. In this way, faced with the approaching transition on the island, the factions would be carrying out a new wave of attacks, which would lead to American retaliation, and the regime would respond by hardening its stance. The delicate balance would be damaged and the radicals would win.

The second threat lies with North Korea. Cuban rhetoric in favor of Pyongyang is pure dynamite. Kim Jong Un’s tyrannical regime, determined to develop a threatening nuclear and ballistic weapons program, has become Washington’s No. 1 enemy. The pressure increases every day, and at any moment, the White House might take the fiery speeches coming from Havana as a hostile act and impose a punishment.

The final breaking point is the tension between reformists and those resistant to change. Raúl Castro has announced that he will step down next Feb. 24. One of the favorites to succeed him is the vice-president, Miguel Díaz-Canel. Born after the revolution, there was a time when he was considered a reformer. But this label was thrown into doubt after the Seventh Congress of the Cuban Communist Party in April 2016, during which Fidel Castro set the anti-reform movement in motion with Díaz-Canel’s support.

“The tension is there, and Trump’s rhetoric has given new strength to the hardcore sector. It’s necessary for the U.S. to make gestures that reduce tension and help the reformists in the transition,” historian Rafael Rojas says.

Trump, at the moment, is unwilling to toss any lifelines. In his June speech in Little Havana, he established the legalization of political parties as a necessary condition for the lifting of restrictions. Cuba is far from doing this, and the extremists in the regime are preparing to break bridges rather than build them. The distance between the two countries may grow again.

*Editor’s note: The acoustic attacks refer to recent incidents affecting at least 21 U.S. diplomats in Cuba, causing them to fall ill after hearing mysterious sounds.


Los 150 kilómetros más largos de América
Trump ha contentado a sus bases anticastristas con su política hacia Cuba, aunque sin volver a la edad de hielo. El futuro ahora depende de la propia transición interior

Hay espacios que requieren generaciones para ser atravesados. Los 150 kilómetros que separan Cuba de Estados Unidos son uno de ellos. Un trayecto de alta complejidad donde la Casa Blanca ha desandado este año buena parte de lo avanzado en el último tercio del mandato de Barack Obama.


Con el presidente Donald Trump se han puesto fin al deshielo, recrudecido las relaciones comerciales, purgado al conglomerado militar y dificultado el turismo. El golpe ha sido considerable. Pero no definitivo. Washington, pese a su retórica, ha mantenido su Embajada en La Habana y se ha cuidado mucho de restablecer la política de pies secos, pies mojados que permitía entrar sin visado a los cubanos en EEUU.

El resultado ha sido la generación de un cuadrante donde Trump ha contentado a sus bases anticastristas, aunque sin volver a la edad del hielo. “Durante 50 años fue imposible mantener un diálogo; ahora, aunque muy debilitado, sobrevive. No estamos en la situación anterior a Obama, sino que se ha instaurado una nueva normalidad”, explica Gustavo Arnavat, del Centro de Estudios Estratégicos e Internacionales.

“Trump ha cumplido con su promesa y ya lo puede dejar así. El problema surge ahora de la falta de voluntad para volver a edificar”, detalla Michael Shifter, presidente del think tank Diálogo Interamericano. Es una dificultad evidente. Tras diez meses en el poder, Trump ha podado la relación con Cuba hasta dejar un tronco raquítico. Casi nadie espera que en el corto plazo reverdezca. Eso requerirá tiempo y, sobre todo, que ninguno de los factores de incertidumbre que se ciernen sobre la isla abra una nueva crisis.

El primer elemento de riesgo son los extraños ataques sónicos. La agresión todavía no tiene culpable. La hipótesis más avanzada, según explicó a este periódico el antiguo asesor presidencial y forjador del deshielo, Ben Rhodes, es que se trate de una operación dirigida por sectores recalcitrantes con la apertura. En esta línea, una nueva oleada de ataques, ante la transición que se avecina en la isla, daría paso a represalias estadounidenses y, en respuesta, a un endurecimiento del régimen. El precario equilibrio quedaría dañado y los radicales habrían ganado.

El segundo peligro radica en Corea del Norte. Los discursos cubanos a favor de Pyongyang son pura dinamita. El tiránico régimen de Kim Jong-un, empeñado en un amenazante programa nuclear y balístico, se ha vuelto el enemigo número uno de Washington. Cada día que pasa la presión es mayor y en cualquier momento la Casa Blanca puede tomarse las soflamas habaneras como un gesto hostil y activar un castigo.

El último punto de quiebra es el pulso mismo entre inmovilistas y reformistas. Raúl Castro ha anunciado que el próximo 24 de febrero dejará el poder. Uno de los favoritos a sucederle es el vicepresidente, Miguel Díaz-Canel. Nacido después de la revolución, hubo un tiempo en que se le consideró un reformista. Una etiqueta que se puso en duda en el VII Congreso del Partido Comunista de Cuba, celebrado en abril de 2016, en el que Fidel puso en marcha la contrarreforma con el apoyo de Díaz-Canel.

“El pulso está en el aire y la retórica de Trump ha dado nuevas fuerzas a los intransigentes. Es necesario que EEUU haga gestos que aflojen la tensión y ayuden al sector reformista en la transición”, indica el historiador Rafael Rojas.

Trump, de momento, no está dispuesto a lanzar ningún balón de oxígeno. En su discurso de junio en la Pequeña Habana, estableció la legalización de los partidos como una condición necesaria para levantar las restricciones. Cuba está lejos de hacerlo y los radicales del régimen se aprestan a romper puentes. La distancia entre ambos países puede crecer otra vez.
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