With a Heavy Hand

Published in El Espectador
(Colombia) on 21 November 2017
by Gonzalo Silva Rivas (link to originallink to original)
Translated from by Matthew Gittings. Edited by Tiana Robles.
The period of stable diplomatic relations between the U.S. and Cuba did not last long. The Yankee U-turn from the brief thaw could already be perceived when President Trump demanded Havana accept his demands regarding domestic policy. The refusal 15 days ago by the Cuban regime to negotiate on the right to free self-determination of their issues precipitated the change in U.S. policy toward the island, with the partial leveling of the recent agreements signed by his predecessor.

Trump took the step he declared he would take and reversed some of the administrative directives passed by former President Barack Obama in January 2015. Within the framework of the new policies Trump has established since June, he has drawn up a package of measures that revive sanctions and renew old tensions. The menu includes the prohibition of commercial transactions between U.S. citizens and a large list of companies linked to the Cuban military, intelligence and security services, and the restriction of tourist visits, except those for academic or social support purposes and which are accompanied by an official United States representative.

U.S. companies that had formalized commercial activities before the measure was put in place, as well as tourist trips already contracted for the coming months, were salvaged from the purge and can continue operating to avoid financial injury and loss to investments. Chains such as Hilton and Carson are continuing to negotiate partnerships, and Marriott has signed an agreement for the management of a historic hotel in Havana, thanks to a special license provided by the Obama administration. Also within the exceptions are cruises and direct commercial flights between both countries.

On the list of 180 restricted entities, the hardest hit will be those that have ties to the tourism sector. The principal entity that will be affected is the Grupo de Administración Empresarial, or Business Administration Group – the most powerful economic emporium of the Cuban Armed Forces, consisting of 100 companies that operate in diverse sectors of the economy and produce 65 percent of the island’s income. At the core of its portfolio is the largest hotel group in the country, Gaviota, and the luxury chain Habaguanex, dedicated to cultural and historical accommodations in the old town of Havana, where its 23 hotels remain off-limits to tourists and future commercial activity.

The Gaviota Group is a successful conglomerate of holdings, which drives 70 percent of the retail commerce in dollars and is the engine for tourist activity in Cuba. It has 62 hotels, 33 of which are run by foreign management companies through administration contracts; it offers 26,725 rooms and directs a dozen marinas along the length and breadth of the archipelago. All the hotels, hostels, marinas and travel agencies in the various tourist areas of the island are included in the program of vetoes and sanctions.

The activities of the hotel group are managed by a completely silent official – the influential, and yet unknown General Rodríguez López-Callejas, about whom little is reported in the Cuban press. The only thing known about him is that he acts as the guardian of foreign investors and that he is a protégée of President Raúl Castro, who, since taking office in 2008, has left control of the economy in the hands of the military. Since then, the Grupo de Administración Empresarial has taken off and multiplied its business operations in a financial system which has, for a long time, been based on market laws.

Cutting off bilateral relations, which are now subject to a detailed regulatory process, constitutes a sensitive breaking point for the island of Castro, which cradles the idea of consolidating a tourist boom with the flow from the U.S. Last year saw a 90 percent increase in U.S. nationals compared with 2015, while in the first semester of this year, the increase was around 145 percent from the previous year. The surge had anticipated 760,000 tourists for 2017, way more than the 100,000 received in 2014.

Despite the new charter, the regime has maintained the decision to shake up its limited tourist infrastructure by promoting investment plans that allow it to widen its accommodation capacity for 2020 to more than 85,000 rooms. It will continue to attract the investment of business owners linked to Canada, Germany, the United Kingdom, France and Italy – countries that made up the lion’s share of its 4 million tourists in 2016.

With the return of the politics of action and reaction, Trump has proposed cutting the economic supply line to the communist government and the Cuban military forces in order to weaken their finances, and with a heavy hand on the table, he is taking the temperature of the Cold War. The risk is that a high fever could develop!


La mano dura

La continuidad de unas relaciones diplomáticas estables entre Estados Unidos y Cuba duró escaso tiempo. La voltereta gringa para dar marcha atrás al breve deshielo se percibía desde cuando el presidente Trump —ya posesionado— exigiera a La Habana aceptar sus demandas sobre política interna. La negativa del régimen a negociar el derecho a la libre autodeterminación de sus asuntos precipitó hace 15 días el cambio de la política norteamericana hacia la isla, con el desmonte parcial de los recientes acuerdos suscritos por su antecesor.

Trump dio el paso anunciado y reversó algunas de las directivas administrativas aprobadas por Obama en enero de 2015. Dentro del marco de su nueva política establecida desde junio, expidió un paquete de medidas que revive sanciones y renueva las tensiones del pasado. El menú incluye la prohibición de transacciones comerciales entre ciudadanos de ese país y una larga lista de empresas vinculadas a las fuerzas militares, de inteligencia y de servicios de seguridad cubanos, y la restricción de viajes turísticos, salvo aquellos de carácter académico o apoyo social, siempre y cuando cuenten con la presencia de un vocero oficial de la jurisdicción estadounidense.

Las compañías norteamericanas con actividades comerciales formalizadas antes de la medida, al igual que los viajes de turismo ya contratados para los meses venideros, se salvaron del apretón y podrán seguir operando o continuar su trámite, según sea el caso, con el fin de evitar traumatismos financieros y pérdidas de inversiones. Cadenas como Hilton y Carson avanzan en negociaciones de asociación, y Marriott firmó un acuerdo para la gestión de un histórico hotel de La Habana, gracias a una licencia especial concedida por la administración Obama. Dentro de las excepciones también quedaron los cruceros y los vuelos comerciales directos entre ambos países.

En el listado de 180 entidades restringidas, el golpe más duro lo llevan las que están vinculadas al sector turístico. La principal afectada es el Grupo de Administración Empresarial (GAE), el más poderoso emporio económico de las Fuerzas Armadas de Cuba, conformado por un centenar de empresas que operan en diversos renglones de la economía y reportan el 65% de los ingresos de la isla. La nuez de su portafolio la conforman el grupo hotelero Gaviota, el mayor del país, y la lujosa cadena Habaguanex, dedicada al alojamiento histórico y cultural en La Habana Vieja, donde sus 23 hoteles quedaron vetados para turistas y futuras relaciones comerciales.

El Grupo Gaviota es un exitoso conglomerado de holdings, que mueve el 70% del comercio minorista en dólares y es motor de la actividad turística cubana. Cuenta con 62 hoteles, 33 de ellos manejados por gerencias extranjeras a través de contratos de administración; ofrece 26.725 habitaciones, y dirige una decena de marinas a lo largo y ancho del archipiélago. La totalidad de sus hoteles, hostales, marinas y agencias de viajes en los diversos polos turísticos de la isla quedaron incluidos dentro del programa de vetos y sanciones.

Las actividades del grupo hotelero se manejan bajo un absoluto silencio oficial, en cabeza del influyente pero desconocido general Rodríguez López-Callejas, del que poco o nada se registra en la prensa cubana. De él solo se sabe que funge como el guardián de los inversores extranjeros y que es protegido del presidente Raúl Castro, quien, desde su asunción en 2008, puso en manos de los militares el control de la economía. Desde entonces el GAE tomó altura y multiplicó sus áreas de negocios, operadas de tiempo atrás por un sistema financiero basado en las leyes del mercado.

La desoxigenada gringa a las relaciones bilaterales, que ahora entran en un detallado proceso de regulaciones, constituye un sensible punto de quiebre para la isla de Castro, que acariciaba la idea de consolidar un boom turístico con el flujo estadounidense. El año pasado el incremento de sus nacionales registró un progreso del 90% con respecto a 2015, en tanto que en el primer semestre de este año el aumento rondaba en 145%, comparado con el anterior. El auge preveía expectativas de 760.000 turistas para 2017, muy por encima del techo de los 100.000 obtenido en 2014.

Pese el nuevo movimiento de cartas, el régimen mantiene la decisión de sacudir su limitada infraestructura turística, mediante la promoción de planes de inversión que permitan ampliar su capacidad de alojamiento para 2020, por encima de 85.000 habitaciones. Seguirá atrayendo la inversión de empresarios aliados de Canadá, Alemania, Reino Unido, Francia e Italia, países que nutren la mayor tajada de sus cuatro millones de turistas de 2016.

Con el regreso de la política de acción y reacción, míster Trump se propone cortarle el chorro económico al gobierno comunista y a las fuerzas militares cubanas para debilitar sus finanzas, y con la mano dura sobre la mesa vuelve a medirle la temperatura a la guerra fría. ¡El riesgo puede estar en que se le suba la fiebre!
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