The US and Russia Should Converse without Stirring Conflict

Published in Nikkei
(Japan) on 18 April 2018
by (link to originallink to original)
Translated from by . Edited by Helaine Schweitzer.
The tension between the U.S. and Russia continues to rise. Spurred by the future of the Syrian Civil War, this conflict is quite capable of destabilizing the rest of the international world. Both parties should make more of an effort to control their antagonism toward one another.

The U.S., along with the U.K. and France, launched a series of airstrikes on Syrian facilities said to be tied to chemical weapons. Vladimir Surkov, a Russian presidential aide who supports the Bashar Assad administration, stated in an article that “Russia’s romance with the West is over,” and warned that Russia “is bracing for a new era of geopolitical loneliness.”

There are signs that this is happening. From Russia’s annexation of Crimea, to “Russiagate,” in which Russia is suspected of intervening in the U.S. presidential election, to the country’s attempted assassination of a former Russian spy in the U.K., there have been incidents that invite mutual distrust from both sides.

There is a great fear the U.S. and Russia will use the air strikes as incentive to confront each other with military might. Not only would this extend the Syrian Civil War, but this would also impact the security of Europe and Russia’s neighboring countries in Asia, which include Japan. Both sides should create opportunities to talk with one another while it’s not too late.

It’s understood, though, that both the U.S. and Russia face circumstances from which they cannot back down. With his gaze set on the fall midterm elections, it’s difficult for President Donald Trump to make any concessions. As Russia’s economy stagnates, President Vladimir Putin tends to take political measures that make enemies of other countries while maintaining unity in his own.

However, it seems that with respect to the Syrian airstrikes, the U.S., U.K. and French militaries concluded that inflicting damage on local Russian forces would be unnecessary. And as of late, though the Russian military wanted to counterattack with its own weapons, it has not made a move, according to the Russian government. It seems it has avoided direct conflict. Both sides are waiting to see what the other will do before the situation grows more critical.

In two months, Russia will be hosting the FIFA World Cup. A large number of spectators and reporters from outside the country will no doubt be visiting. Sports must not be colored by politics. President Putin should work to avoid stirring conflict, and fulfill his responsibility as the host country.

In May, Prime Minister Shinzo Abe is scheduled to visit Russia and attend a conference with President Putin. In order to keep Russia from descending into isolation, this dialogue between Japan and Russia is growing increasingly important.


米ロは対立あおらず対話を

 米国とロシアとの緊張が高まりつつある。きっかけとなったシリア内戦の先行きのみならず、国際情勢全般の不安定化につながりかねない。双方はさらなる対立を自制すべきだ。

 米国が英国、フランスとともにシリアの化学兵器関連施設に空爆を実施した。アサド政権の後ろ盾であるロシアのスルコフ大統領補佐官は論文で「西側とのロマンスは終わった」と指摘し「地政学上の孤独という新たな時代に備えている」と警告している。

 伏線はあった。ロシアによるクリミア併合、米大統領選への介入が指摘される「ロシアゲート」疑惑、英国でのロシア元スパイの暗殺未遂事件など互いの不信感は募っていた。

 空爆をきっかけに米ロが軍事面での対立に発展することが懸念される。シリア内戦の泥沼化に拍車をかけ、欧州やロシアの隣国日本を含むアジアの安全保障にも影響を与える。双方は早期に対話の機会を設けるべきだ。

 米ロとも引くに引けない事情があるのはわかる。トランプ大統領は秋の中間選挙をにらみ譲歩しにくい。プーチン大統領も経済に停滞感が漂うなか、国外に敵を作り求心力を維持する政治手法に傾斜しがちだ。

 ただ、シリア空爆の際、米英仏軍は現地のロシア軍に被害が及ばないように配慮したもようだ。最新兵器で迎撃するとの見方があったロシア軍も動かなかったとロシア政府は発表した。直接衝突を避けたとみられる。事態が抜き差しならなくなる前でお互いが出方をうかがっている。

 ロシアは2カ月後にサッカーワールドカップを開催する。外国から多くの観客と取材陣が訪れるはずだ。スポーツに政治色を帯びさせてはならない。プーチン大統領は対立をあおらず、主催国としての責任を果たすべきだ。

 安倍晋三首相は5月に訪ロし、日ロ首脳会談に臨む予定だ。ロシアを孤立させないためにも、日ロ対話の重要性は増している。
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