US-North Korea Summit Hints Complete Denuclearization Is Possible

Published in The Kyunghyang Shinmun
(South Korea) on April 19 2018
by Editorial (link to originallink to original)
Translated from by Myung Jeon. Edited by Margaret Dalzell.
“North Korea is indicating its willingness to move forward on complete denuclearization without the conditions that Washington cannot accept, including the withdrawal of U.S. forces from the southern half of the Korean Peninsula,” South Korean President Moon Jae-In said during a lunch meeting with top executives from news outlets in South Korea on April 19, 2018, after indicating, “all the North demands is the end of hostile policies against it and security guarantees.”

“I think it would not be too difficult in inter-Korean and U.S.-North Korean summits to reach a framework agreement on denuclearization, a peace regime on the peninsula, the normalization of the relations between Washington and Pyongyang, and economic aid to North Korea,” President Moon commented, hinting that the three countries have found some common ground in the discussion about possible denuclearization and security guarantees.

This is not the first time that North Korean leader Kim Jong Un mentioned relinquishing its nuclear weapons program. He has publicly raised the issue of denuclearization multiple times, only to be greeted with a wave of skepticism. Suspicion has grown in America and among conservatives in South Korea that the reclusive regime would try to settle for a freeze or nonproliferation, claiming that North Korea is a nuclear power. Given the recalcitrant regime’s absolute dependence on its nuclear weapons, it would be difficult to believe Pyongyang’s sincerity about curbing its nuclear program.

The difference in how the U.S. and North Korea understand denuclearization has been another sticking point. While Washington calls for the "complete, verifiable and irreversible dismantlement" of the North’s nuclear weapons program, Pyongyang has pushed for “phased, synchronized steps” toward denuclearization. It was widely predicted that it would be uncertain whether the most isolated regime would accept a U.S. plan to complete denuclearization within a short span of time, perhaps a year. However, if what Moon delivered represent Pyongyang’s true intentions, concerns about denuclearization, for the most part, are likely to be resolved.

There is another positive signal: Pyongyang has not raised its demand for the withdrawal of U.S. forces from South Korea. The North has long claimed that its nuclear weapons program has been developed against hostile policies of its Western adversary, pinpointing American military presence across the border as being at the center of them. For the U.S., however, its presence in the South means more than that: It is tied to Washington’s strategic interests in checking China. Therefore, it is unlikely that the condition requiring that American troops be withdrawn from the southern part of the Korean Peninsula, if it is put on the table even after denuclearization, will be accepted by Washington. In this regard, the North’s change of heart on the American military presence in the South serves as a sort of demonstration of the Kim regime’s sincerity regarding denuclearization. Accordingly, the prospects for the success of inter-Korean and U.S.-North Korea summits look hopeful.

Nevertheless, it is important to understand that North Korea’s sudden diplomatic outreach is a prelude to potential challenges. The past is littered with inter-Korean and U.S.-North Korea deals that were struck with difficulty and eventually fell through as problems arose over the course of their implementation. The U.S. and the North need to find a balance between the costs and benefits involved in achieving their respective goals of denuclearization and security guarantees. It will also be necessary to hammer out and coordinate realistic details. The two adversaries should not let this rare opportunity to realize denuclearization and to establish peace in the Korean Peninsula go to waste.


[사설]완전한 비핵화 가능성 보이는 북·미 정상회담

문재인 대통령은 19일 “북한이 완전한 비핵화 의지를 표명하고 있으며 주한미군 철수라든지 미국이 받아들일 수 없는 그런 조건을 제시하지도 않는다”고 밝혔다. 문 대통령은 이날 언론사 사장단 오찬간담회에서 “북한은 대북 적대시정책의 종식, 그다음에 자신에 대한 안전보장, 그것을 말할 뿐”이라며 이같이 말했다. 문 대통령은 또 “저는 남북 및 북·미 정상회담에서 비핵화나 평화체제, 북·미관계 정상화, 북한의 경제 발전 지원 등에 대해 큰 틀의 원론적인 합의는 크게 어려울 것 같지 않다고 생각한다”고 전망했다. 남·북·미가 비핵화와 북 체제보장에 접점을 찾았다는 얘기다.

지금까지 김정은 북한 국무위원장이 여러 차례 공개적으로 비핵화를 거론했지만 회의적인 반응이 끊이지 않았다. 미국과 보수층을 중심으로 북한이 핵보유국 지위를 주장하면서 핵동결이나 핵확산 금지를 제시하는 선에서 협상하려 할 것이라는 의심이 제기됐다. 북한의 절대적인 핵 의존성을 고려할 때 핵포기의 진정성을 믿기 어려웠기 때문일 것이다.

북한과 미국의 비핵화 방안에 대한 인식 차도 관건이었다. 미국은 ‘완전하고 검증가능하며 돌이킬 수 없는 폐기’(CVID)를 의미하는 비핵화를 원하지만 북한은 ‘동시적·단계적 비핵화’를 주장해왔기 때문이다. 비핵화 소요 시간도 1년 안팎의 단기간으로 잡고 있는 미국의 복안을 북한이 수용할지 미지수라는 관측이 많았다. 하지만 문 대통령의 전언대로라면 비핵화를 둘러싼 이런 우려들은 상당 부분 해소될 것으로 보인다.

북한이 주한미군 철수를 거론하지 않는 것도 긍정적인 신호다. 북한은 미국의 대북 적대시 정책을 핵개발의 명분으로 삼아왔고, 그 핵심으로 주한미군을 지목했다. 그러나 미국에는 북한뿐 아니라 중국 견제라는 포기할 수 없는 전략적 이해가 걸려 있다. 따라서 비핵화가 이뤄진다해도 주한미군 철수 요구를 수용할 가능성은 희박하다. 이런 점에서 북한의 주한미군에 대한 입장 변화는 비핵화 의지의 진정성을 보여주는 것이라고 할 수 있다. 그만큼 남북 및 북·미 정상회담의 성공 가능성이 높아지는 분위기다.

하지만 이제부터가 더 중요하다. 과거에도 남북 및 북·미 간에는 어렵게 합의해놓고 이행과정에서 문제가 불거지면서 합의 자체가 틀어진 경우가 허다했다. 북한과 미국이 비핵화와 체제보장이라는 목표를 달성하기 위해서는 비용과 대가의 균형을 잘 잡아야 한다. 현실적인 세부 방안들을 마련하고 긴밀히 조율하는 작업도 긴요하다. 비핵화와 한반도 평화 구축을 위한 소중한 기회를 놓쳐서는 안된다.
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