The US and China Trade War

Published in Miyanichi
(Japan) on 25 July 2018
by (link to originallink to original)
Translated from by Deborah Chapin. Edited by Helaine Schweitzer  .
Drawing back from a dangerous situation.

The United States, the world’s No. 1 economic superpower, has imposed tariffs on China, the world’s second-largest economic superpower. China has opposed the tariffs, and both countries have turned blatantly hostile toward each other, breaking into a full-blown trade war. The U.S. and China’s collective gross domestic product is 40 percent of the world’s total. When both countries that should be leaders in developing the world’s economy face each other with self-protectionist trade policies, then it is a dangerous situation, because neither country will budge an inch.

An impact study is needed in Japan as well. The U.S. is already imposing steel and aluminum tariffs on countries in the European Union and in Canada. Additionally, increased tariffs on automobiles and automobile parts are being considered. With large-scale employment in the automobile manufacturing and production fields, imposition of tariffs there would be on a different level than those imposed on steel and aluminum. A chain of retribution is starting to spread among the countries involved. There are fears that these U.S. tariffs will encourage these kinds of actions elsewhere and that the world’s economy will be further cast into disarray.

Because the international community believes that blocking the economy with self-protectionism invites war, it has consistently promoted free trade in the postwar society. However, that foundation is being greatly shaken. It is a situation that should be exceedingly concerning.

I cannot help but say that there is slim hope in the present situation, but efforts to draw back from this dangerous situation must not be abandoned. I would like both countries, the U.S. and China, to seek compromise and lower their raised fists. The international community must also hold its ground and continue to persuade both countries to reach agreement.

At the same time, it is also necessary to quickly find a response that focuses on reality, because, although the tariffs are between the U.S. and China, other countries are involved. In Japan’s case, automobile factories are developed all over the world. The parts and raw materials supply chain and the destinations for the completed products cover a wide area. The Japanese government should examine the developing effect on the industry separately and consider necessary measures to counter the impact.

In order to influence the U.S., the international community has not only used existing principles of free trade but has also set up the framework to profit through trade agreements. It would be disadvantageous for the U.S. not to join the Trans-Pacific Partnership, the 11 countries that are aiming to enter into an agreement they can put into effect. However, President Donald Trump invoked security policy and ramped up his well-used technique of acting bilaterally, instead of reforming his actions.

It does not look like this situation will change in the future. Trump’s priority is to focus on the short term, to show the country that he stands for reducing the trade deficit and improving and creating domestic jobs before the midterm elections in November. The midterm goal would be opposing China, which is making a formidable appearance on military and economic fronts. In order to achieve these goals, Trump has chosen to use self-protectionist means such as imposing the sanction of tariffs and restrictions on investment.

As long as Trump considers the World Trade Organization unnecessary, there is a chance that the U.S. will not return to a place of international cooperation. We must not concede to the U.S., which continues to deal in ways that deviate from the rules of free trade, but the urgent issue is improving the way the WTO functions, as it has been unable to respond to the current situation.



◆「危険な状態」から引き返せ◆
 世界1位の経済大国である米国が2位の中国に制裁関税を発動し中国も対抗、互いに敵意をむき出しにした本格的な「貿易戦争」に突入した。米中の国内総生産(GDP)は合わせて世界の4割。世界経済の健全な発展を主導すべき立場の両国が、保護主義的な通商政策を突き合わせ、一歩も引かない危険な状態だ。
日本も影響調査必要
 米国は既に鉄鋼、アルミニウムを対象に欧州連合(EU)、カナダなどに向けて制裁関税を実施。さらに、自動車や同部品についても関税引き上げを検討中だ。自動車は雇用や生産の規模が大きく、発動されればその影響は鉄鋼などの比ではない。関係国間では報復の連鎖が広がり始めている。今回の米中による制裁関税はこうした動きに拍車を掛け、世界経済をさらに混乱に陥れる恐れがある。
 保護主義による経済のブロック化が戦争を招いたとの反省から国際社会は戦後一貫して自由貿易を推進してきたが、その基盤が大きく揺らいでいる。極めて憂慮すべき事態だ。
 現状では望みは薄いと言わざるを得ないが、危険な状態から引き返す努力は放棄してはならない。米中両国には歩み寄りの余地を探り、振り上げた拳を下ろすよう求めたい。国際社会も両国に踏みとどまるよう説得を続けなければならない。
 それと同時に、現実を見据えた対応も進める必要がある。米中間の制裁関税ではあるが、他国も無関係ではいられないからだ。日本の場合、自動車などの製造工場が世界各地に展開し、部品や原材料の供給経路や完成商品の納入先は多岐にわたる。日本政府は産業別に影響の進度を調査し、必要に応じた対策を検討すべきだろう。
対応できないWTO
 国際社会が米国を説得するために、これまで用いてきたのは自由貿易が掲げる理念だけではない。貿易協定による実利も打ち出してきた。11カ国が合意、発効を目指している環太平洋連携協定(TPP)は、加入しなければ米国に不利益になる枠組みだ。だが、トランプ大統領は安全保障政策も絡め、2国間の取引を多用する手法を改めず逆に強化してきた。この構図は今後も変わりそうにない。
 トランプ氏が優先しているのは短期的には、11月の中間選挙に向けて貿易赤字の解消、国内雇用の維持・創出に取り組んでいる姿を国民に見せることだ。中長期的には軍事、経済面での台頭著しい中国への対抗だろう。これらの目的を達成するために選択したのが、制裁関税や投資制限などの保護主義的な手段だ。
 トランプ氏が世界貿易機関(WTO)を「頼むに足らず」とみている限り、米国は国際協調の場には戻ってこない可能性もある。自由貿易のルールを逸脱した対応を続ける米国に譲歩してはならないが、現状に対応できなくなっているWTOの機能強化は喫緊の課題だ。
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