Will There Be Life after Trump?

Published in Folha de São Paulo
(Brazil) on 22 July 2018
by Clóvis Rossi (link to originallink to original)
Translated from by Alessandra Guetti. Edited by Arielle Eirienne.
What will survive of his madness?

Donald Trump has received the most devastating criticism that any person, especially a president, could ever receive. He deserves it.

But just when one thinks there is nothing else bad to say about him, Foreign Policy magazine’s website presents an interview with Radoslaw Sikorski, Poland’s former foreign minister.

The journalist asks, “Do you think Trump is just ignorant of that history [pre-World War II], or do you think this was an expression of actual hostility to the notion of alliances in general?

Sikorski answered, “If I were to comment on his ignorance, I wouldn’t know where to begin.”
Therefore, it was not by chance that Martin Wolf, the chief economics commentator at the Financial Times, stamped the label “ignoramus” on Trump.

After the display of such dismal character, one might wonder: are he and his internal and external policy interventions here to stay, or will the next U.S. president (given the questionable hypothesis that the U.S. will survive Trump) undo each one of them?

As for the president, the answer will depend on November’s midterm elections. If the Democrats regain the majority in both houses of Congress, it is possible that impeachment proceedings will take place, even more so now that Michael Cohen, President Trump’s long-time attorney, has leaked that he secretly recorded a conversation he had with Trump two months before the presidential election, in which the two discussed payments made to a former Playboy model who said she had an affair with Trump.

If the Republicans threatened to remove Bill Clinton from office for having an affair with a White House intern, isn’t there reason enough for impeachment in a similar situation with a Playboy model?

In my opinion, neither situation is reason for impeachment. But the hypocritical puritanism among a portion of American legislators says something else.

However, if there is no impeachment, Trump's defeat in a bid for re-election may come in two years. If he survives a new election, it is going to be every man for himself.

But if he is defeated, will his initiatives remain? This is the topic of Janan Ganesh’s column, Ganesh being one of the many good commentators for the Financial Times. He believes that some of Trump’s initiatives in domestic policy (tax policy, hostility toward immigrants and protectionism) will survive because they have public support.

I am not sure about the protectionism piece, judging from a recent study by the Pew Research Center, which found that nearly half (49 percent) of those surveyed think that rising tariffs for U.S. import partners will be bad for the country. Only 40 percent believes they are good.

Regarding the two topics that have stirred up emotional reactions this past week (the fight with NATO, the affection for Russia), it is reasonable to expect that a new president, either Republican or Democrat, would undo Trump’s initiatives. After all, nowadays, 72 percent of Americans have an unfavorable opinion of Russia. And conversely, only 23 percent are critical of NATO.

Either way, the world must not stand around waiting for the disorder that Trump is encouraging. There have been some moves and attempts to address the situation here and there. It is too bad that Brazil is adrift in the middle of the storm, without a real president and with a lack of presidential contenders that think beyond the alliances (or in a very specific case, beyond getting out of prison).


Haverá vida depois de Trump?

O que sobreviverá de suas maluquices?

Donald Trump já recebeu os mais demolidores qualificativos que qualquer pessoa, mais ainda um presidente, poderia conquistar. Merece.

Mas, quando você pensa que não há mais nada a dizer de ruim sobre ele, eis que o site da revista Foreign Policy saca do coldre entrevista com Radoslaw Sikorski, ex-ministro polonês de Defesa e de Relações Exteriores.

Pergunta o jornalista: "Você acha que Trump é apenas ignorante daquela história [pré-Segunda Guerra] ou acha que é hostil à noção de alianças em geral?".

Resposta de Sikorski: "Se eu fosse comentar sobre sua ignorância, não saberia por onde começar".

Não foi à toa, portanto, que o principal colunista do Financial Times, Martin Wolf, carimbou em Trump o rótulo de "ignoramus".

Feita essa sintética apresentação de tão nefasto personagem, cabe perguntar: ele e suas intervenções em políticas internas e externas vieram para ficar ou o próximo presidente americano (na discutível hipótese de que os Estados Unidos sobrevivam a Trump) vai desfazê-las uma por uma?

Quanto ao presidente em si, a resposta vai depender muito da eleição legislativa de novembro. Se os democratas recuperarem a maioria nas duas Casas do Congresso, é possível que avance um processo de impeachment.

Ainda mais agora que Michael Cohen, seu advogado de muito tempo, deixou vazar que gravou secretamente uma conversa com Trump, dois meses antes da eleição presidencial, em que os dois discutiram pagamentos para uma ex-modelo da Playboy que dizia ter tido um caso com Trump.

Se os republicanos ameaçaram afastar Bill Clinton por um caso com uma estagiária da Casa Branca, também não é motivo para impeachment situação semelhante com modelo da Playboy?

Na minha opinião, nenhum dos casos é para impeachment. Mas o puritanismo hipócrita de uma parte dos legisladores americanos diz outra coisa.

Se, no entanto, não vier o impeachment, pode vir, em dois anos, a derrota de Trump na tentativa de se reeleger. Se sobreviver a uma nova eleição, salve-se quem puder.

Mas, se for derrotado, suas iniciativas permanecerão? É o tema de coluna de Janan Ganesh, um dos muitos bons colunistas do Financial Times.

Ele acha que algumas de suas iniciativas em política interna sobreviverão (política fiscal, hostilidade aos imigrantes eprotecionismo), por terem apoio da opinião pública.

Não estou tão certo no capítulo protecionismo, a julgar por pesquisa recente do Centro Pew: praticamente a metade (49%) dos consultados acha que o aumento de tarifas para importações de parceiros dos EUA seria ruim para o país. Só 40% acham bom.

Já nos dois temas que provocaram sensação na última semana (a briga com a Otan e o carinho com a Rússia), é razoável esperar que um novo presidente, republicano ou democrata, reverta as iniciativas de Trump. Afinal, hoje são 72% os americanos que têm opinião desfavorável sobre a Rússia. E, inversamente, só 23% são críticos da Otan.

De qualquer forma, o mundo não pode ficar esperando inerme a desarrumação que Trump está promovendo. Já há mexidas, incipientes, aqui e ali. Pena que o Brasil seja um barco solto na tempestade, sem um presidente de fato e sem candidatos que pensem além das alianças a fazer (ou, em um caso específico, além de sair da prisão).
This post appeared on the front page as a direct link to the original article with the above link .

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