House of Trump
Published in Le Devoir
(Canada) on 23 January 2019
by Frédérick Gagnon and Rafael Jacob (link to
original)
Donald Trump isn’t Frank Underwood, and his presidency is not completely like the television series “House of Cards.” But as Jan. 20 marked his second anniversary in the White House, it’s not an exaggeration to say that he and the famous character played by Kevin Spacey have at least one thing in common: their ruthless pragmatism. In the documentary “Get Me Roger Stone,” one of the advisers in Trump’s 2016 campaign, Roger Stone, perfectly sums up the motto that seems to have guided the president and his team from the beginning: “We must win at any cost and by any means, without breaking the law.”*
While Special Counsel Robert Mueller continues his investigation into the involvement of Russia in America’s 2016 election, Trump could have more and more difficulty convincing him that he hasn’t crossed that line.
In order to get his hands on the White House, he effectively had to ask his lawyer, Michael Cohen, to buy the silence of adult actress Stormy Daniels in relation to his extramarital affairs and to pay a firm to manipulate polling results about Americans’ views of him. Some days ago, another one of Trump’s lawyers, former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani, seemed to imply that it’s not impossible that members of Trump’s campaign team colluded with Russia, contrary to what the White House has been saying from the beginning.
These revelations don’t seem to bother Trump’s supporters. As a matter of fact, his popularity rating has remained practically unchanged for the past 24 months: His approval rating has never dropped below 37 percent or risen above 46 percent. Trump is perhaps correct – fundamentally – in saying that he will never lose the loyalty of those that support him – even if he were to “stand in the middle of 5th Avenue and shoot somebody.”
Ruthless Pragmatism
It is therefore not surprising to see him start the third year of his presidency with the same ruthless pragmatism that has served him so well up until now. He refuses, for example, to forgo financing of the American-Mexican wall, which so pleases his base, even if that means paralyzing the federal government for several weeks.
Since the beginning of January, the changing of the guard in the House of Representatives, however, has modified the dynamic in Washington and could mark a turning point in the “House of Trump” saga. With their new majority, the Democrats defy the president every day; they recently threatened him with canceling the State of the Union address, which he’s scheduled to deliver at the end of January. The Democrats have also invited Cohen to testify before Congress on Feb. 7, with public hearings perhaps as well attended as those of Supreme Court Justice Brett Kavanaugh some weeks ago, and which could be an annoyance for Trump.
The last two years are therefore at risk of being tainted by confrontations and quarrels of an intensity rarely seen in recent American political history. There exist certain issues on which the Democrats and Trump could agree, among which is a massive infrastructure plan promised by the latter during the 2016 election. However, in this era of extreme partisan polarization, the Democrats are tired of seeing Congress bestow victory on the opposing party’s president.
They already have their eyes on the next election. Many aspiring Democratic presidential candidates have already jumped into the 2020 arena – while four years ago, Hillary Clinton waited until the middle of the summer to kick off her campaign. Trump, who never really stopped campaigning after 2016, will himself multiply his rallies over the next few weeks in order to personally attack the Democrats who dare confront him. The “House of Trump” series will end in 2021 (if the Democrats beat Trump in the 2020 presidential election) or in 2025 (if Trump is re-elected and finishes his second term), unless Mueller’s report, which should be released shortly, persuades Republicans in Congress that it would be political suicide not to support the president’s removal.
*Editor’s note: This quotation, accurately translated, could not be verified.
While Special Counsel Robert Mueller continues his investigation into the involvement of Russia in America’s 2016 election, Trump could have more and more difficulty convincing him that he hasn’t crossed that line.
In order to get his hands on the White House, he effectively had to ask his lawyer, Michael Cohen, to buy the silence of adult actress Stormy Daniels in relation to his extramarital affairs and to pay a firm to manipulate polling results about Americans’ views of him. Some days ago, another one of Trump’s lawyers, former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani, seemed to imply that it’s not impossible that members of Trump’s campaign team colluded with Russia, contrary to what the White House has been saying from the beginning.
These revelations don’t seem to bother Trump’s supporters. As a matter of fact, his popularity rating has remained practically unchanged for the past 24 months: His approval rating has never dropped below 37 percent or risen above 46 percent. Trump is perhaps correct – fundamentally – in saying that he will never lose the loyalty of those that support him – even if he were to “stand in the middle of 5th Avenue and shoot somebody.”
Ruthless Pragmatism
It is therefore not surprising to see him start the third year of his presidency with the same ruthless pragmatism that has served him so well up until now. He refuses, for example, to forgo financing of the American-Mexican wall, which so pleases his base, even if that means paralyzing the federal government for several weeks.
Since the beginning of January, the changing of the guard in the House of Representatives, however, has modified the dynamic in Washington and could mark a turning point in the “House of Trump” saga. With their new majority, the Democrats defy the president every day; they recently threatened him with canceling the State of the Union address, which he’s scheduled to deliver at the end of January. The Democrats have also invited Cohen to testify before Congress on Feb. 7, with public hearings perhaps as well attended as those of Supreme Court Justice Brett Kavanaugh some weeks ago, and which could be an annoyance for Trump.
The last two years are therefore at risk of being tainted by confrontations and quarrels of an intensity rarely seen in recent American political history. There exist certain issues on which the Democrats and Trump could agree, among which is a massive infrastructure plan promised by the latter during the 2016 election. However, in this era of extreme partisan polarization, the Democrats are tired of seeing Congress bestow victory on the opposing party’s president.
They already have their eyes on the next election. Many aspiring Democratic presidential candidates have already jumped into the 2020 arena – while four years ago, Hillary Clinton waited until the middle of the summer to kick off her campaign. Trump, who never really stopped campaigning after 2016, will himself multiply his rallies over the next few weeks in order to personally attack the Democrats who dare confront him. The “House of Trump” series will end in 2021 (if the Democrats beat Trump in the 2020 presidential election) or in 2025 (if Trump is re-elected and finishes his second term), unless Mueller’s report, which should be released shortly, persuades Republicans in Congress that it would be political suicide not to support the president’s removal.
*Editor’s note: This quotation, accurately translated, could not be verified.
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