And Kim Takes Down Trump in Hanoi

Published in El Pais
(Spain) on 3 March 2019
by Francisco G. Basterra (link to originallink to original)
Translated from by Brandee McGee. Edited by Denile Doyle.
The president of the United States is convinced that true power lies in fear.

Donald Trump’s status should worry us and should be submitted to an annual review like the State of the Union address over which he presides. In fact, it should even worry his praetorian guard in Washington, who ensured that the U.S. president would be alone with Kim Jong Un for the shortest amount of time possible during the failed Hanoi summit, out of fear that he would offer dangerous concessions to someone who is now considered a great leader and great friend. But Trump has surprised us again: He left the table abruptly and returned to Washington, unsuccessful.

Trump, who has made intuition, which he believes he possesses to the highest degree, his principal political virtue, went to the capital of Vietnam, the former enemy nation where the U.S. suffered its gravest defeat, with the desire to reach a resounding victory that would provide a way to the Nobel Peace Prize. He needs one to counteract the foreseeable result of Special Counsel Robert Mueller’s investigation, and the black ink spilled in Congress by his former personal attorney [and] convicted criminal; scoundrel against scoundrel.

After legitimizing the most intolerable tyrant left in the world, Trump ingeniously intends to sell Kim a fantastic prosperous future, an economy welcomed in the global system, like Vietnam, a Communist country but with the economic system of China. He failed to negotiate just one small detail: North Korea has to step down as a nuclear state, disabling all its nuclear fuel production installations and ballistic missiles in an immediate and verifiable process, and then Washington would gradually lift the sanctions imposed on the hermit kingdom.

Kim, who behind his apparent crudeness hides astuteness, told him no. The sanctions are to be lifted totally and completely, or he would move only piece by piece. Trump did not have any rabbits in his hat and Kim will not be tricked into abandoning his nuclear power, as it guarantees his regime’s survival. Trump's motto is “I play with people’s sympathies,”* a motto which did not serve him and maybe will be insufficient to save his chaotic presidency.

Trump, who considers himself to be a great negotiator, as he says in his book ,“The Art of the Deal,” has fallen into a trap. His prefabricated image as a deal-making artist has been further weakened, much like his faith in the value of interpersonal diplomacy, which was weakened by inadequate previous preparation. But for the U.S. president, diplomacy is a duel between Wild West cowboys: “It’s leader versus leader, man versus man, me versus Kim,” (Trump’s affirmation in “Fear,” by Bob Woodward). It is the “all by myself” of children.

Trump is convinced that true power lies in fear, the capacity to instill it in an adversary. He also uses it in the trade war with China. And he believes in strategic unpredictability. “I always say we have to be unpredictable.”

These are bad elements that obstruct sensible foreign policy, which provides security in a world that morphs at great speed. The 45th U.S. president may end up demonstrating that his character is his destiny.

*Editor’s note: Although accurately translated, this quote could not be verified.





El estado de Trump debe preocuparnos y debiera ser sometido a una revisión anual como ocurre con el estado de la nación que preside. De hecho, preocupa incluso a su guardia pretoriana en Washington, que ha procurado que el presidente de EE UU estuviera el mínimo tiempo posible a solas con Kim Jong-un, durante la fallida cumbre de Hanói, por temor a que ofreciera concesiones peligrosas al que considera ahora Gran líder y Gran amigo. Pero Trump ha vuelto a asombrar: se levantó abruptamente de la mesa y regresó fracasado a Washington.

Trump, que ha hecho de la intuición, que cree poseer en grado supremo, su principal virtud política, acudió a la capital de Vietnam, antigua nación enemiga donde EE UU sufrió su más grave derrota, con el anhelo de lograr un triunfo resonante que le diera paso al nobel de la Paz. Necesita un as exterior para contrarrestar el previsible resultado de la investigación del fiscal especial Mueller, y la tinta negra vertida contra él en el Congreso por su exabogado personal, Cohen, delincuente convicto, truhan contra truhan.

Tras legitimar al tirano más impresentable que queda en el mundo, Trump pretendía ingenuamente venderle a Kim un fantástico futuro próspero, una economía admitida en el sistema global, a semejanza de Vietnam, país comunista pero con un sistema económico a la china. Faltaba negociar solo un pequeño detalle: Corea del Norte debiera darse de baja como Estado nuclear, inutilizar todas sus instalaciones de producción de combustible nuclear, sus misiles balísticos, en un proceso inmediato y verificable. Y Washington gradualmente levantaría poco a poco las sanciones impuestas contra el reino ermitaño.

Kim, que tras su aparente tosquedad esconde astucia, le ha dicho que no. Las sanciones se retiran total y conjuntamente, o me muevo solo pieza por pieza. Trump no tenía conejos en la chistera y Kim no abandonará con trucos su poder nuclear, que le garantiza la supervivencia de su régimen. “Yo juego con las simpatías de la gente”, el lema de Trump, no le sirvió y puede que no sea suficiente para salvar su caótica presidencia.

Trump, que se considera un gran negociador como cuenta en su libro The art of the deal (El arte del acuerdo), ha pinchado en hueso. Su prefabricada imagen de artista del pacto se viene abajo. También su fe en la bondad de la diplomacia interpersonal, sin preparación previa adecuada. Pero para el presidente de Estados Unidos la diplomacia es un duelo entre pistoleros del Viejo Oeste: “Esto es un combate líder contra líder, hombre contra hombre, yo contra Kim” (afirmación de Trump en Miedo, el libro de Woodward). El "yo solito" de los niños.

Trump es un convencido de que el verdadero poder es el miedo, la capacidad de infundirlo en el adversario. Lo utiliza también en la guerra comercial con China. Y la imprevisibilidad estratégica: “Debemos ser más imprevisibles”. Pésimos elementos para trabar una política exterior sensata que aporte seguridad en un mundo que muta a gran velocidad. El 45º presidente de EE UU puede acabar demostrando que su carácter es el destino.
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