Trump’s Campaign

Published in El Espectador
(Colombia) on 15 April 2019
by Luis Carvajal Basto (link to originallink to original)
Translated from by Brandee McGee. Edited by Helaine Schweitzer.
The tactics he has used with respect to the Colombian government in response to an inefficient war on drugs and illegal immigration can only be explained by domestic politics and the United States’ next presidential election. Donald Trump has sufficiently shown that any argument is worth winning an election that, as it was in 2016, will be very close.

Many were surprised by his criticism of Colombia, historically an important ally of the United States in South America. At the time, those who had no expectation of the harsh language that lay in store thought that the 2016 campaign strategy of returning lost jobs to his country and a return to protectionism would successfully cement his victory in previous elections. After proposing a trade war with China and insisting on constructing the wall, as well as his comings and goings with the North Korean dictator and with his friend Vladimir Putin, Trump provides proof that, in essence, he remains the same: a populist politician whose objective is to maintain power.

No one has instilled as much doubt as President Trump about whether the United States has any true policy with respect to international relations. For example, while Ambassador Kevin Whitaker has objected to Colombia’s Special Jurisdiction for Peace, known as the JEP, Jonathan Cohen, U.S. ambassador to the United Nations, has requested that Colombia sanction this statutory scheme. Does anyone understand this?

A battle for power is raging in the United States, and foreign policy is, naturally, part of that battle.

In that battle, the press and the free press have seen the writing on the wall over time. The consistency of democratic institutions has been put to the test as never before in the land of Washington, Jefferson and, of course, Obama. Finally, nothing is as strange as a president capable of boycotting the Paris climate agreement, as well as questioning NATO, the World Trade Organization and the global trade structure, along with all foreign policy achievements under United States leadership since World War II, then resolving to charge after the historically most solid ally in the region. As we have seen with Kim Jong Un, when it’s convenient for him, Trump can propose going to war and in the next moment, embrace the North Korean leader and invite him to breakfast.

Nobody believes, in reality, that a wall, in the digital era, can contain the legal and illegal flow of trade, or that putting the brakes on immigration can reduce the crime rate, or that the return to protectionism will bring jobs back to a barely educated working class that lost out to automation and other competitors that, in consideration, buy U.S. services. No one, that is, except those same depressed sectors in his country that constitute his electoral base, the same base to which he directs his actions, including this week’s anti-Colombian remarks.

That electoral base continues to represent what has been the foundation of his support, some 43% of the voters. An expert at divisiveness (that's how he won the presidency), he uses the fight against immigration to pin blacks against Hispanics, and, among them, to pin those who are naturalized in the country against their countrymen who are now seeking to enter the United States. He needs those votes if he wants to win in 2020. He maintains the kind of speech that gave him his close and questionable victory.

It pays to consider the fact that, despite our problems and the limited growth of our institutions in Colombia, in contrast to what occurred in the Philippines, it is not possible to resume the use of the herbicide glyphosate without the approval of the Constitutional Court. We know, after so much violence and the damaging influence it has had, that the drug problem is more complex than sensationalist speeches. Fortunately President Ivan Duque is not President Rodrigo Duterte, evidently. In that light, calling Trump's speeches sensationalist is a compliment compared to the criticism of Duterte.

Those who claim to be angrier than others in response to the Colombian government should consider the fact that Trump represents his government, but he hardly represents American society, as we saw during recent U.S. elections, when the party Trump represented lost the majority in the House of Representatives and now faces the rigor of individual counterweights to a political system that tries to protect itself.

The Colombian government did the right thing by not engaging in a dry and pointless discussion with a government that it is not going to convince. Colombia has no vote in U.S. elections.


Sus reclamos al gobierno de Colombia, por cuenta de la ineficiencia en la lucha antidroga y la inmigración ilegal, no tienen otra explicación que la política interna y las próximas elecciones presidenciales en su país. Trump ha demostrado, suficientemente, que cualquier argumento vale para ganar una elección que, como en 2016, será muy ajustada.


Muchos fueron sorprendidos por sus declaraciones contra Colombia, históricamente, un aliado importante de Estados Unidos en el continente. En su momento, pensaron que su estrategia de campaña en 2016, para devolver los empleos perdidos en su país con el retorno al proteccionismo, finalizaría al lograr la victoria en las anteriores elecciones. Luego de proponer la guerra comercial a China; la persistencia en la construcción del muro ; sus ires y veni res con el dictador norcoreano y con su amigo Putin, queda probado que, en esencia, Trump sigue siendo el mismo: un político populista cuyo objetivo es mantenerse en el poder.

Nadie, como el presidente Trump, ha puesto tan en duda que, con relación a la política exterior, Estados Unidos tenga una verdadera política de Estado. Para muestra un botón: mientras el embajador Whitaker promueve las objeciones a la JEP, Jonathan Cohen, embajador de EE. UU ante Naciones Unidas, solicita que Colombia sancione su Ley estatutaria. ¿Alguien entiende?

La que se vive en Estados Unidos es una batalla por el poder y la política exterior es, naturalmente, parte importante de ella.


En esa batalla la prensa y los medios libres atisbaron, con tiempo, las orejas de un lobo. La consistencia de las instituciones democráticas ha sido puesta a prueba como no se recuerda en el país de Washington, Jefferson y, por supuesto, Obama. Finalmente, no es tan raro que un presidente capaz de boicotear el acuerdo de Paris; poner en entredicho a la OTAN; a la OMC, y la estructura del comercio mundial, todos ellos logros de una política exterior construida con el liderazgo de Estados Unidos desde la posguerra, resuelva embestir contra el aliado históricamente más sólido en la región. Como ha ocurrido con Kim Jong Un, en algún momento, si le conviene, lo abrazará o invitará a desayunar, luego de proponerle una guerra.

“Nadie” cree, en realidad, que un muro, en la era digital, pueda contener los flujos legales e ilegales de comercio; o que el freno a la inmigración pueda reducir los índices de criminalidad; o que el retorno al proteccionismo devolverá los empleos a una clase trabajadora escasamente educada que los perdió frente a la automatización y otros competidores que, en contraprestación, compran a Estados Unidos servicios. “Nadie” salvo esos mismos sectores deprimidos de su país que constituyen su base electoral. Y es a ella a quien van dirigidas sus acciones, incluido el discurso anti colombianista esta semana.


Esa base electoral sigue representando, en lo que hasta ahora es su piso, el 43% del electorado. Experto en dividir (así obtuvo la presidencia) su lucha contra la inmigración quiere poner a negros contra hispanos y, entre estos, a quienes están asentados en el país contra sus paisanos que quieren ingresar ahora. Necesita esos votos si quiere ganar en 2020.Mantiene el discurso que le dio la apretada y discutida victoria.

Conviene considerar que, pese a nuestros problemas y escasa maduración institucional, en Colombia, a diferencia de lo que ocurre en Filipinas, no es posible restaurar el uso del glifosato sin el visto bueno de la Corte Constitucional. Sabemos, después de tanta violencia y su nefasta influencia, que el problema de las drogas es más complejo que discursos efectistas. Afortunadamente Duque no es Duterte, evidentemente. Desde ese punto de vista las críticas de Trump pueden considerarse halagos.

Quienes reclaman mayor vehemencia en las respuestas del gobierno colombiano deben considerar que Trump representa a su gobierno pero difícilmente a la sociedad norteamericana, como se pudo observar en las pasadas legislativas en las que el partido que representa perdió la cámara y ahora afronta el rigor de los contrapesos propios de un sistema político que intenta protegerse.

Hizo bien el gobierno colombiano al no entrar en una discusión árida e inútil con un gobierno al que no va a convencer: no vota en sus elecciones.
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