The Solution ‘In Extremis’

Published in El País
(Spain) on 9 June 2019
by Editorial (link to originallink to original)
Translated from by Matthew Gittings. Edited by Arielle Eirienne.
Trump forces Mexico into an agreement under the threat of more tariffs.

The global trade war initiated by Donald Trump reached an unprecedented level of intensity with the announcement that as of tomorrow, the United States would impose a 5% tax on all imports from Mexico. That figure would gradually increase to 25% over the next few months “until the Illegal Immigration problem is remedied,” the leader announced via his preferred diplomatic medium, Twitter. The Mexican administration immediately sent a large group of officials to Washington, headed by Secretary of State Marcelo Ebrard, to try to defuse the biggest crisis between the two countries in many years. After many hours at the negotiating table, yesterday at the break of dawn, an agreement was reached: Mexico will reinforce measures to control migration in exchange for having the tax lifted.

It is widely believed that resorting to tariffs and other trade barriers is generally a bad way to resolve commercial disputes between countries. But to apply these measures to an issue as complex and sensitive as illegal immigration, which has nothing to do with trade, and to force a change of policy in another country, is an irrational move conceivable only in the Trump universe.

The Mexican government was surprised as much by the announcement itself as by the peremptory delivery of the terms. However, the root cause of this issue is nothing new – the problem that both countries face in managing the flow of hundreds of thousands of Central American immigrants heading north, fleeing the misery and violence from decades of abandonment that corrupt, inefficient governments have done nothing but aggravate.

Paradoxically, however, this has been one of the issues the Mexican administration has been anticipating. In the barely six months in which he has held the position, Ebrard has designed his own ambitious Marshall Plan for Central America, aimed at attracting investment to the region, encouraging economic growth and job creation, and attacking the underlying causes of the migratory exodus. Despite an initial surge, and the official welcoming discourse of President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador, Mexican authorities have clamped down hard. Deportations of Central American immigrants have tripled since Ebrard took up the role.

If they had taken effect, taxes on Mexican imports would have threatened both economies and, in turn, had global repercussions. Trump's reelection campaign is lined up for this month. There is great fear, on both sides of the border, that this has been the first act of the campaign.


Solución ‘in extremis’

Trump fuerza un acuerdo con México bajo la amenaza de más aranceles

La guerra global de tarifas en la que se ha embarcado el presidente Donald Trump registró un nuevo récord de insensatez con el anuncio de que a partir de mañana EE UU impondría una tasa del 5% a todas las importaciones de México. Esta cifra aumentaría hasta un 25% en pocos meses si “el problema de la inmigración ilegal no se remedia”, según amenazó el mandatario en Twitter, su herramienta diplomática favorita. La Administración mexicana envió de forma inmediata a Washington a un nutrido grupo de funcionarios, encabezado por el canciller, Marcelo Ebrard, para tratar de desactivar la mayor crisis entre ambos países en muchos años. En la madrugada de ayer y tras largas horas negociación se alcanzó un compromiso: México reforzará los controles migratorios a cambio de que la tasa no entre en vigor.

Está ampliamente establecido que recurrir a aranceles y otras barreras al comercio suele ser, por lo general, una pésima idea para resolver los diferendos mercantiles entre países. Pero utilizarlos en una cuestión tan compleja y sensible como la inmigración ilegal, que nada tiene que ver con el comercio, para forzar un cambio de política en otro país es una irracionalidad que solo resulta imaginable en el universo Trump.

El Gobierno mexicano se vio sorprendido tanto por el anuncio como por lo perentorio de los plazos. Pero no por el fondo del asunto: el problema que supone tanto para EE UU como para el propio México la gestión del flujo de centenares de miles de emigrantes centroamericanos rumbo al norte, huyendo de la miseria y la violencia que décadas de abandono y Gobiernos corruptos e ineficaces no han hecho más que exacerbar.

Pero, paradójicamente, este ha sido uno de los campos en los que la Administración mexicana ha sabido anticiparse. En los escasos seis meses que lleva en el cargo, el canciller Ebrard ha diseñado un ambicioso Plan Marshall para Centroamérica con la intención de atraer inversiones a la región, favorecer el crecimiento económico y la creación de empleos, y atacar así las causas subyacentes al éxodo migratorio. Pese a algún bandazo inicial y también pese al discurso oficial de bienvenida del presidente López Obrador, las autoridades mexicanas han endurecido los controles: las deportaciones de inmigrantes centroamericanos se han triplicado desde que tomó posesión, hace seis meses.

Si hubieran entrado en vigor, las tasas a las importaciones mexicanas habrían amenazado a ambas economías y, por contagio, al mundo entero. Trump tiene previsto lanzar este mes su campaña para la reelección. No pocos temen, a ambos lados de la frontera, que este haya sido el primer acto de dicha campaña.
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