Excessive US Arms Sales Pose Danger for Taiwan

Published in Huanqiu
(China) on 9 July 2019
by (link to originallink to original)
Translated from by Liza Roberts. Edited by Laurence Bouvard.
The United States Department of Defense said on Monday, July 8, that the U.S. has approved a total of about $2.2 billion in new arms sales to Taiwan. This sale includes 108 M1A2T Abrams tanks and 250 Stinger portable air defense missiles. The U.S. media reported that this arms sale was implemented in the face of the ongoing trade war between China and the United States.

This is the fourth time that the Trump administration has sold arms to Taiwan in just over two years. Compared to previous U.S. military sales to Taiwan, $2.2 billion is not an unprecedented amount, but it is the largest of the Trump administration’s first three arms sales to Taiwan. The U.S. government's arms sales to Taiwan have gradually increased over the course of this year.

U.S. arms sales to Taiwan were heavily restricted by the 1982 August 17 Communique, which stipulated that the United States must gradually reduce sales to Taiwan before finally ceasing altogether. However, the United States later turned its back on this commitment. The George W. Bush administration and subsequent administrations have conducted regular, large-scale arms sales to Taiwan, stimulating turbulence in Sino-U.S. relations.

It now appears that the responsibility for solving the problem of arms sales to Taiwan lies with the mainland for two reasons. First, the mainland's military is becoming more and more powerful, which has led to Taiwan's newly purchased weapons holding less significance. There is no way Taiwan will be able to maintain cross-strait military balance through the purchasing of these weapons. Second, the strengthening of the mainland's military has increased its ability to suppress external arms sales to Taiwan. In the past, France and the Netherlands both sold weapons to Taiwan; now, only the United States is left.

The U.S. has several goals in selling weapons to Taiwan: to make money, maintain the influence of the United States on Taiwan, and contain China. Washington has very clearly shown that these military sales are not intended to support the maintenance of the military balance on both sides of the strait, but this is still the rhetoric used in its Taiwan Relations Act. The focus of U.S. policy has shifted from "defending Taiwan's security" to playing other games with China.

For the Taiwan authorities, keeping the U.S. involved is essential to maintaining the existing cross-strait policy. They are aware that the People's Liberation Army retains an overwhelming advantage over the Taiwanese military. If Taiwan decided to fight for liberation from China, it would be easier for the PLA than the peaceful liberation of Beiping.* The purchase of U.S. armaments has lost its physical significance, but what Taipei wants is to take advantage of the psychological effect; by spending a large chunk of its military budget on U.S. weapons, Taiwan pays protection fees.

U.S. arms sales to Taiwan have been a long-term problem for Sino-U.S. relations, but for the reasons outlined above, this conflict has gradually declined, because the mainland now has more control over the situation in the Taiwan Strait. Though China has always exercised restraint, it has the ability to change the rules of the game.

It is nearly impossible to overstate the relationship between the U.S. and Taiwan, but once it is stretched too far, there will definitely be a price to pay. Let’s take a look at an extreme hypothetical: One day, the United States and Taiwan could make such a large military sale that the mainland does not accept it, and the mainland announces that if that equipment is sent to the island, the PLA will destroy it. What will happen then?

It can be assumed that the Taiwanese authorities would be the first to surrender, because if China and the United States come to blows in the Taiwan Strait, that conflict would pose an unbearable burden for Taiwan. Therefore, in order to avoid such a crisis, the Taiwan authorities would take the first steps to ease the tense situation.

In order to guarantee Taiwan’s safety, it must manage cross-strait relations and avoid a military confrontation with the mainland. As long as the Taiwanese authorities do not pursue independence, conflict can easily be avoided. However, once steps toward Taiwanese independence are taken, it is useless to claim Taiwan is only rejecting mainland martial law. The mainland has always adhered to the policy of peaceful reunification, and Taiwanese authorities should not force the mainland to abandon this policy.

The road that the Democratic Progressive Party is currently on leads only to trouble, lacking strategy and a clear understanding of the overall situation. The DPP broke with history, so they now only have a vague understanding of the law and of the rise and fall of their society. Hopefully, they will not take the final step toward a massive mistake that will eventually ruin them.

*Editor's note: Beiping is a former name of Beijing, which means "Northern Capital". The city was called Beiping from 1368 to 1403 and from 1928 to 1949, when the Chinese capital was at Nanjing. From 1937 to 1945, the city under Japanese occupation served as the capital of a puppet regime and was renamed Beijing but most Chinese histories use the name Beiping for the city during that time period.


美国国防部星期一说,美国已经批准总值大约22亿美元的对台新军售案,具体项目包括对台出售108辆M1A2T艾布拉姆斯坦克和250枚毒刺便携式防空导弹。美国媒体在报道这一军售时普遍提到,它是在中美贸易战仍在进行的大背景中出台实施的。

  这是特朗普政府两年多时间里的第四次对台军售,与以往历届政府的对台军售相比,22亿美元的军售总额说大不大、说小不小,但与特朗普政府的前三次对台军售相比,这一额度则是最大的。这届美国政府的对台军售有逐渐升级的趋势。

  美国对台军售曾受到1982年《八一七公报》的强有力限制,该公报规定美国逐渐减少对台军售,直至最终解决。但美国后来背弃了这项承诺,老布什政府和之后的美国政府都有大规模和较大规模对台军售,它们与中美关系的跌宕起伏形成了相互刺激。

  现在看来,解决对台军售问题要依靠大陆自身的变量。一是大陆军事力量越来越强大,使得台湾新购武器实际上丧失军事意义,台湾的那点军费使其不可能通过购买武器维持两岸军事平衡。二是大陆国力的增强使得我们有更多手段压制外部的对台军售,过去法国、荷兰等都有对台军售,现在只剩下美国。

  美国对台军售有几重目的:赚钱,以此维系美国的对台影响,打军售牌牵制中国大陆。华盛顿非常清楚,军售对维系两岸军事平衡早已毫无意义,但这仍是其对应“与台湾关系法”堂而皇之的说辞,美方的政策焦点早已从“保卫台湾安全”转到了与中国博弈的其他方向。

  对台湾当局来说,拉住美国是其维系现有两岸政策的基础。他们更清楚,解放军已经建立起对台军的压倒性优势,今天如果下决心解放台湾,比当年解放北平还要容易。增购美国军备已经失去了物理意义,但台北要的是心理效应,要的是以此宣示台美关系的紧密,把台湾军费割一大块给美国军火商,形同向美国磕头,交保护费。

  美国对台军售成为中美关系的一项长期麻烦,但由于上述原因,这项麻烦的烈度实际是逐渐弱化的。大陆拥有了对台海局势更多的主导权,我们一直保持克制,但实际上有了拍案而起断然改变台海地区游戏规则的能力,我们没有使用它,但它会潜移默化地发生作用。

  美台是不能玩过头的,一旦玩过头,肯定要付出代价。我们不妨做一个大胆的假设:如果有一天美台之间做出大陆决不接受的军售,大陆宣布如果那些装备上岛,我们将坚决摧毁它们,届时将会发生什么?

  我们绝对相信,届时率先退缩的会是台湾当局。因为如果中国大陆和美国都能经历得起一场台海冲突的话,那场冲突将是台湾的不可承受之重。所以为了不将自己逼入那样的极端,台湾当局首先要悠着点。

  台湾的安全在于处理好两岸关系,从根本上避免走向与大陆的军事对抗。只要台当局不朝着“台独”的方向瞎折腾,它是完全可以做到的。而一旦朝着“台独”方向铤而走险,搞“以武拒统”,无论它抱谁的粗腿,都没有用。大陆一直坚持和平统一政策,台湾当局最该做的就是不要逼大陆放弃这一政策。

  民进党街头闹事出身,相信在市井折腾的那一套,缺大局观、战略观。他们割断历史,因此对社稷兴亡的规律也认知模糊。希望他们不犯最终断送自己的颠覆性错误,必须在此指出,他们离那种错误只剩一步之遥。
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