Taiwan Has Become Biggest Fuse between US and China

Published in UDN
(Taiwan) on 14 July 2019
by Sun Yang Ming (link to originallink to original)
Translated from by Jennifer Sampson. Edited by Barbara Finkemeyer.
The U.S. announced new arms sales to Taiwan, also agreeing to a stopover by Taiwan President Tsai Ing-wen in the eastern U.S. The news was met with much protest from Beijing and condemnation from Chinese Communist Party Minister of Foreign Affairs Wang Yi. Additionally, the spokesperson for the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Geng Shuang, announced that China would impose sanctions on American arms companies.

Before steps have even been taken to further address the U.S.-China trade war, the Taiwan factor has been added. At the meeting between Donald Trump and Xi Jinping at the Group of 20 industrial and emerging-market nations summit, Trump promised to “take into account concerns China has regarding the issue of Taiwan,”* complicating the situation even further.

President Trump has always been regarded as a vanguard in opposing China. From calling Tsai, questioning the one-China principle, triggering the U.S.-China trade war and shutting out Huawei’s 5G technology; to Hong Kong anti-extradition protests, approving the marketing license for U.S. sales of submarine technology to Taiwan and continuing the National Defense Authorization Act for years; to selling arms to Taiwan, supporting Taiwan’s diplomatic situation in the South Pacific and Central and South America and agreeing to Tsai’s visit to the U.S. − all have been regarded as symbolic opposition to the Chinese Communist Party.

However, a U.S. insider voiced something different: “Unless Trump intervenes, the U.S. is entirely hostile to Chinese policy.” Observations from the U.S. Congress are similar: “The two people Trump most envies and wants to emulate are Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping.”*

Actually, this touches upon a split within U.S. views of CCP policy. Originally, after the Cold War, a group of academics intended to rethink U.S. global strategy and Chinese policy, but were stifled by the Clinton administration. After George W. Bush took office, a new conservative group sought to comprehensively suppress the CCP, even supporting Taiwan independence to challenge the CCP. However, this was repressed again due to the war on terror. In the Barack Obama years, fighting terrorism remained the major focus; it wasn’t until Trump took office, when fighting terrorism was no longer the priority, that China’s rise became a greater threat to the U.S. But, astonishingly, according to opinion polls, Americans do not regard China as a threat, whether in terms of the economy or national security.

At the same time, because of Trump’s style, the U.S. has created two parallel governments: One is composed of Trump and his small number of trusted followers, and the other is the original Washington establishment. With the opposition to China from the original establishment and the extremely conservative thinking of Trump, the mainstream elites in Washington are now completely anti-China. After Trump came into office, former Assistant Secretary of State for East Asian and Pacific Affairs Kurt Campbell and Ian Easton jointly wrote to criticize U.S. policy toward China since the 1970s, regarding it as a huge failure. As a result of all of this, experts on China from the original mainstream school of thought have been silenced. Thus, we have the previously mentioned theory of “unless Trump intervenes.”

These issues, including that of Taiwan, will eventually cause a full-scale conflict between the U.S. and China. Because of this, 100 China experts from all over the U.S. signed an open letter in The Washington Post, urging Trump to change his policies.

The conflict over Taiwan between the U.S. and the CCP is, in fact, already on the horizon.

* Editor’s note: Although these quotes could not be independently verified, they are accurate translations.



美國宣布新一輪對台軍售,又同意蔡英文過境美東地區,消息傳出,北京大嘩;除中共外長王毅譴責外,其外交部發言人耿爽宣布,將對軍售的美國企業制裁。

在美中貿易戰尚未進一步處理前,又新增台灣變數,且在G20的川習會上,川普承諾「重視中方在台灣問題上的關切」之後;使得情勢更為複雜。

川普總統一向被視為反「中」急先鋒;從川蔡通話開始,到質疑一中原則,到引爆美中貿易戰,到封殺華為5G,再到香港反送中,對台開放潛艦行銷許可,又從連續幾年國防授權法到對台軍售、在南太與中南美支持台灣外交局勢,乃至同意蔡訪美等,無不被視為是與中共全面對抗表徵。

但來自美方了解內情人士,給出完全不同答案:「除非川普介入外,美國對中國政策可說是全面敵對」。另外來自國會的觀察類似:「川普所最羡慕,也極力想模仿的兩個人,一是普亭,一是習近平」。

事實上,這涉及美國內部對中共政策的大分裂。原來,自冷戰結束,有一派學者意圖重新思考美全球戰略與中國政策,後為柯林頓政府壓下。布希上台後,此批新保守派即意圖全面打壓中共,甚至以支持台灣獨立與中共衝突亦在所不惜,後因反恐戰爭遭壓下;歐巴馬年代反恐仍是主要思維;直到川普上台後,反恐不再最優先,而中國崛起對美國挑戰則全面估高。但妙的是,依民調顯示,美國民眾根本不把大陸當成是美國的威脅,不論是經濟或國家安全。

同時因川普風格,美國形成「兩個平行政府」結構。一邊是川普及其少數親信,另一邊則是原先華府建制派;以原先的反中,加上川普的極端保守派思維,現在華府的精英分子主流是全面反中。川普上台後,前亞太助卿坎柏與易思安共同執筆為文,痛批美國自一九七○年代以來的中國政策,認為是大失敗政策。流風所及,已造成原先主流派中國問題專家全面噤聲。所以才會有前面所謂的「除非川普介入外」說法。

包括台灣問題在內的這些議題,遲早會造成美中的全面衝撞;所以才會有日前全美百名中國問題專家,共同聯名在華盛頓郵報上呼籲,要川普改弦更張。

其實,美國在台灣問題上與中共的大衝撞,已出現在可見的地平線上了。
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