Donald Trump's international policies, if he has any or if they can be called policies, are diametrically opposed to Theodore Roosevelt's, who was famous for "speaking softly and carrying a big stick."
Trump himself is a threat because of the chaos of his presidency, his unpredictability, his narcissism, his reactionary policies, his corruption and his copious lies. But his threats, especially regarding the military, are not dangerous because in the end they are empty. He talks but never acts. The United States' enemies know it, and its friends and allies suffer as a result of it.
The White House's careful reaction to the attack against Saudi Arabia, which halved its oil production capacity, is the latest episode of the United States' increasing disengagement from global security. The president shouts, insults and intimidates his enemies, but then he has no problem sitting with them and trying to reach a deal, if possible about trade.
The ongoing crisis between Iran and Saudi Arabia ends a 75-year period of history in which Washington guaranteed Saudi Arabia's security, and [Saudi Arabia] provided Washington with the oil it needed for its economy to function. Now, the United States is closing the umbrellas of protection it opened during this long phase so its allies around the world would be protected − the Korean Peninsula, Afghanistan, Europe or the Middle East − and instead, the country is determined to reach agreements that benefit its trade and its industry.
Trump boasts, but he does not want war. Should he have to use his troops outside of his territory, his ideal is that it is for payment. Trump's international mercantilism has led him to filter out of his ranks practical diplomats, military men worried about deterrence and hawks like John Bolton, willing to declare war every day. Only his secretary of state, Mike Pompeo, [remains], Mike "yes sir."
Trump dreams of a meeting at the summit with Iranian President Hassan Rouhani, where he can demonstrate his talent for making deals after doing everything to reach the current level of escalation of the drone war. Benjamin Netanyahu's electoral weakness and Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman's decline allow it.
Always strong with the weak and weak with the strong. He barks, but he does not bite.
La política internacional de Donald Trump, si acaso la tiene o si puede llamarse política a lo que hace, está en las antípodas de Theodore Roosevelt, el presidente célebre porque acompañaba sus amables palabras con la muy convincente exhibición de “un gran bastón”.
Trump es una amenaza en sí mismo, por el caos de su presidencia, su imprevisibilidad, su narcisismo, sus políticas reaccionarias, su corrupción y sus mentiras torrenciales. Pero sus amenazas, sobre todo las militares, no son peligrosas, porque luego no producen efectos. Habla alto, pero luego no actúa. Lo saben los enemigos de Estados Unidos y lo sufren sus amigos y aliados.
La prudente reacción de la Casa Blanca al ataque sufrido por Arabia Saudí, que ha reducido a la mitad su capacidad de producción petrolífera, es el último episodio del progresivo desentendimiento estadounidense de la seguridad mundial. El presidente vocifera, insulta y acoquina a sus enemigos, pero luego no tiene inconveniente en sentarse con ellos e intentar algún acuerdo, a ser posible comercial.
La crisis abierta entre Irán y Arabia Saudí clausura un periodo histórico de 75 años en el que Washington garantizaba la seguridad del país árabe y este proporcionaba el petróleo necesario para el funcionamiento de su economía. Ahora, Estados Unidos está cerrando los paraguas de protección que había abierto durante esta larga etapa para que se guarecieran sus aliados de todo el mundo —en la península de Corea, en Afganistán, en Europa o en Oriente Próximo— y se dedica en cambio a obtener acuerdos que beneficien su comercio y su industria.
El trumpismo gallea, pero no quiere guerra. En caso de que tenga que utilizar sus tropas fuera del territorio nacional, su ideal es que sea previo pago del importe. El mercantilismo internacional de Trump le ha llevado a depurar sus filas de diplomáticos realistas, de militares preocupados por la capacidad disuasiva y de halcones como John Bolton dispuestos a declarar la guerra cada día. Solo cuenta su secretario de Estado Mike Pompeo, Mike sí señor.
Trump sueña en un encuentro en la cumbre con el presidente iraní Hassan Rouhani, donde demuestre su talento en la obtención de acuerdos, después de haberlo hecho todo para que se llegara a la actual escalada de la guerra de los drones. Se lo permiten la debilidad electoral de Netanyahu y el desprestigio de Mohamed bin Salman.
Siempre fuerte con los débiles y débil con los fuertes. Ladra, pero no muerde.
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It wouldn’t have cost Trump anything to show a clear intent to deter in a strategically crucial moment; it wouldn’t even have undermined his efforts in Ukraine.
It wouldn’t have cost Trump anything to show a clear intent to deter in a strategically crucial moment; it wouldn’t even have undermined his efforts in Ukraine.
Thanks to the Department of War, it would not be that difficult for Trump to nab the Peace Prize. In today’s world, peace is not a state, but a performance.