Climate Millenarians

Published in El Mundo
(Spain) on 28 September 2019
by Jose Ignacio Torreblanca (link to originallink to original)
Translated from by Matthew Gittings. Edited by Margaret McIntyre.
This climate war will be both deep and long-lasting and the distribution of costs is going to be as difficult as it is unbalanced.

I was more frightened by the words of Maisa Rojas, a scientist with the group of experts on climate change (the IPCC), than those of Greta Thunberg. Thunberg speaks from her personal emotions, and from her childhood, the present and the future as a victim of climate change. Rojas, a climatologist, speaks from the position of science and reason about the irreversible acidification of the oceans and its consequences. I don't know how climate change personally affects the Chilean Dr. Rojas. Maybe she spent her entire childhood sailing with her grandfather; hence her love for the oceans. Or maybe she doesn't even know how to swim, and for her, the sea is nothing more than a chemical formula to be studied scientifically. I’ve no idea. I’m not criticizing Thunberg. However, I fear that her overexposure to the media will do her more harm than climate change itself. Given our attention-deficit levels, I would have preferred those three minutes of global viral stardom to have gone to Dr. Rojas to ensure that the public understands why the acidification of the oceans is so severe.

One does not know whether to retreat or rebel when faced with the inevitable need to abandon every cause if emotions cannot be added to the reasoning. In fact, let’s focus on the contradiction. So far, this column has not been about climate change but about the emotions that Thunberg arouses and, strangely for me, I have written it in the first person. This is a sign of the times: feelings amplified via social networks and the hidden reason struggling to emerge from behind that noise.

Climate change is going to be profoundly unfair in its consequences, as the poorest will suffer first and worst. It will also be tremendously difficult to control. From a scientific point of view, it is correct to call it change. But from a political point of view, the right thing to do is to describe it as a war. It will have geopolitical consequences, because it will pit countries against each other, but also political consequences, because it will further divide and polarize our societies. This climate conflict is going to be both deep and lasting and the sharing of costs is going to be as difficult as it is unbalanced. We are going to need a lot of sharp science, but also a lot of sharp politics. But, given what we have seen in New York this week, we will have to be as vigilant against climate change as we are against the millenarians who, in the wake of Thunberg, will stir up the idea of global warming as a moral punishment for a society that is corrupt by shouting, "Penance! Repent! Climate sinners! The world is coming to an end!" And so on.


Milenaristas climáticos

Ese conflicto climático va a ser tan profundo como duradero y el reparto de los costes va a ser tan difícil como asimétrico

Me han asustado más las palabras de Maisa Rojas, científica del grupo de expertos sobre el cambio climático (IPCC), que las de Greta Thunberg. Thunberg habla desde sus emociones personales, de su infancia, presente y futuro como víctima del cambio climático. Rojas, climatóloga, habla desde la ciencia y la razón sobre la irreversibilidad de la acidificación de los océanos y sus consecuencias. Desconozco cómo afecta personalmente el cambio climático a la Doctora Rojas, chilena. A lo mejor pasó toda su infancia navegando con su abuelo: de ahí su amor por los océanos. O a lo mejor ni sabe nadar y para ella el mar no es más que una fórmula química objeto de estudio científico. Ni idea. No critico a Thunderg. Más bien temo que su sobreexposición mediática le haga más daño que el propio cambio climático. Pero dado el déficit de atención que padecemos, hubiera preferido que esos tres minutos de gloria viral mundial hubieran sido para que la Doctora Rojas hiciera entender a la opinión pública por qué la acidificación de los océanos es tan grave.

Uno no sabe si resignarse o rebelarse antes esa necesidad ineludible de que toda causa esté huérfana si a las razones no podemos sumarle las emociones. De hecho, fíjense en la contradicción: hasta aquí esta columna no trata del cambio climático sino de las emociones que despierta Greta Thunberg y escribo, raro en mí, en primera persona. Es el signo de los tiempos: la emoción amplificada por las redes sociales y la razón oculta pugnando por emerger detrás de ese ruido.

El cambio climático va a ser profundamente injusto en sus consecuencias, pues los más pobres lo sufrirán antes y más acusadamente, y tremendamente complicado de gobernar. Desde el punto de vista científico es correcto llamarlo cambio. Pero desde el punto de vista político lo correcto es describirlo como un conflicto. Tendrá consecuencias geopolíticas, porque enfrentará a unos países con otros, pero también políticas, porque dividirá y polarizará aún más a nuestras sociedades. Ese conflicto climático va a ser tan profundo como duradero y el reparto de los costes va a ser tan difícil como asimétrico. Vamos a necesitar mucha buena ciencia, pero también mucha buena política. Pero, visto lo visto en Nueva York esta semana, tan prevenidos vamos a tener que estar contra el cambio climático como contra los milenaristas que, en la estela de Greta Thunberg, agitarán la idea del calentamiento global como castigo moral a una sociedad corrupta al grito de Penitenciagite. Arrepentíos, pecadores climáticos. El mundo se acaba. Y así.
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