Kurdish Map

Military expert Anton Lavrov on the significance of events in northern Syria and the confrontation between Donald Trump and the Democratic Party.

Donald Trump’s decision to leave the Syrian Kurds to their fate caused a storm of resentment in the State Department and the Pentagon. In addition to the usual criticism in these situations, discontent has erupted in other channels. The New York Times leaked a very critical internal memo from respected diplomat William Roebuck concerning the policy of the Trump administration. Roebuck is currently the deputy special envoy to the Global Coalition to Defeat ISIS. (The organization is banned in Russia.) For several years, Roebuck worked with the Kurds in Syria, helping to create their armed forces and their own government. In a document addressed to an inner circle of senior colleagues, Roebuck allowed himself to be more frank than he would in public.

Don’t forget that The New York Times regularly attacked Trump even before he assumed the presidency. It was this respected publication with its “sources” that actually accused the president of conspiring with Russia to rig the 2016 election. During the two years of investigation, Special Counsel Robert Mueller did not produce any evidence, but this didn’t bother anyone. At the end of October, the same newspaper was among several publications that simultaneously released reports concerning the content of Trump’s negotiations with Volodymyr Zelenskiy, which then served as the reason to initiate an impeachment inquiry. In this context, the next leaked report, now bearing the name of this respected diplomat, doesn’t look like a mere coincidence.

In a memorandum that wasn’t originally intended for publication, Roebuck explicitly states that pro-Turkish militants committed war crimes and ethnic cleansing during Operation Peace Spring. It is no secret that there are many radical Islamists among their ranks that are not much different from the Islamic State or the Nusra Front (organizations banned in Russia). The killings of civilians were filmed during the very first days of the operation, which greatly damaged the image of the Turkish military, especially among the Americans. According to Roebuck, the short Turkish operation cost the lives of more than 200 civilians and forced more than 100,000 people to leave their homes in the border regions.

Roebuck believes that the United States didn’t do enough to prevent the Turkish operation, but acknowledges that it would be difficult to prevent, even with tougher U.S. policy. After months of careful preparation, Recep Tayyip Erdogan was ready to give the order for the offensive, despite the threat of sanctions or the strengthening of joint U.S.-Kurdish patrols. Maintaining a presence would help the U.S. save face, but not save the Kurds from defeat.

The sudden withdrawal of U.S. troops at a critical moment led to a loss of face, and blew up the defenders’ plans. This undermined morale, and led to a quick defeat. Therefore, Turkish and Russian armored cars weren’t the only ones being pelted with stones in the Kurdish territories. The first of these orders to withdraw went to American convoys in Qamishli, leaving Syria for Iraq at the height of Turkish bombing and shelling. Last month, U.S. television amazed viewers with shots of stones and rotten tomatoes flying at armored vehicles sporting the stars and stripes. Such an attack from recently loyal and reliable allies was especially disturbing.

As the author of the memo sadly notes, Trump’s statement that the U.S. is now exclusively interested in oil in Syria perfectly fits popular conspiracy theories in the Middle East. Many here since the time of “Desert Storm” are sure that all U.S. intervention in the region is due to a desire to control hydrocarbon reserves. Now, arguing with this opinion will be much more difficult. It must be especially insulting to American diplomatic efforts that the oil reserves in Syria are very small. They don’t stand up in comparison to those in Iraq or Iran. Even after production is fully replenished, there should be enough to financially support Kurdish autonomy. Nevertheless, Roebuck considers the decision to maintain a military presence in Syria, even under such an excuse, to be correct.

The U.S. military returned to Syria after just a couple of weeks after it withdrew, demonstrating how inconsistent and impulsive Trump is. This was even temporarily encouraging to the Kurds, who had suspended negotiations with the government. But the returning American forces completely avoided participation in events in the north of the country. The Americans did not help defend the Kurdish cities from the pro-Turkish Islamists’ offensive, and the Americans do not protect them now. During the difficult days, it’s not the American allies who are standing by the Kurds, but government detachments and the Russian military police.

The influence of the United States also decreased because not all of the troops returned to Syria. Instead of 1,500-2,000 American troops and several hundred European allies, fewer than 1,000 now remain in Syria. It may seem that the reduction is not that big. In addition, they are noticeably “heavier.” For the first time, powerful Bradley infantry fighting vehicles are included in the detachment, which even considered Abrams tanks for protecting the oil fields.

But the American group only monitors a few oil fields in the sparsely populated desert instead of hundreds of kilometers along the border with Turkey and northern Syria. This is a very small spot on the map of the country. Along with territorial control, the U.S. political influence on the situation has decreased. As Roebuck admits, it will be more difficult now for the U.S. to justify its participation in the political process to determine the postwar future of Syria and use it as a base for combating terrorism in the region.

A message from an authoritative source about the major military and political failures in the Middle East, for which the president is responsible, is a very serious blow to Trump’s already simplistic strategy. While it’s hard to guess how the impeachment story will end, no doubt the Kurdish map printed in the pages of an influential American newspaper will become a powerful factor in the political battles of Washington.