American Democrats and Missed Opportunities

Published in al-Bayan
(U.A.E.) on 1 January 2020
by Dr. Manar El-Shorbagy (link to originallink to original)
Translated from by Evan Rosson. Edited by Helaine Schweitzer.
A few weeks before the first popular vote in the American presidential election, the Democratic Party seems to be in an unenviable position that could lead to Donald Trump’s election to a second term. Unless there is a drastic change of public opinion, a close observer of what is happening in America will be surrounded by endless media coverage of the Trump impeachment, which is overshadowing all other issues. Washington politics have become completely absorbed by that one subject, which many outside the capital are paying far less attention to, based on the fact that public opinion polls do not show any meaningful change in the percentage of Americans who support impeachment or who agree with removing Trump from office.

In fact, a quick look at Americans’ top priorities clearly shows the opportunities that the opposition Democratic Party is wasting. In a survey recently conducted by Pew, an American think tank, it became clear that the top priority for the majority of Americans is health care, regardless of their age, party affiliations, ethnicity or race.

The concern about health care is immediately followed by the issue of addiction. In a question about the issues that represent problems facing the country, more than two-thirds of those surveyed said health care is the No. 1 most dangerous problem. The same percentage said the same thing about addiction.

The percentage does not vary much between the young and old, Republicans and Democrats or white respondents, African Americans and Latinos. Following health care, other issues considered in the ranking varied in priority among different demographic categories.

The fact is, health care is one of those issues that has remained a priority among voters for the past three decades. It still occupies first or second place at least following the state of the economy.

Currently, the economic state of white constituents is specifically better than ever, from their perspective. In an aggregate of public opinion polls, the economy was not a priority for the majority, which still comprises white constituents in American society.

Addiction has become a major issue in recent years because of prescription painkillers, which have become among the most important factors in addiction and a leading cause of death.

Statistics indicate that more than 10 million Americans as young as 12 were exposed to painkiller addiction last year alone. Various cases have been brought in American courts to hold major drug companies responsible for this crisis, having promoted these pills and failed to disclose the danger.

When health care is a priority, politics traditionally favors the Democrats. That is because during the 20th and 21st centuries, the real moves to extend health care coverage only occurred only during Democratic administrations. For example, during Democratic President Lyndon Johnson’s term in the mid-1960s, a law established two of the most important American health care programs: Medicare and Medicaid.

Medicare is still among the most popular programs, so much so that there are demands and recommendations to extend its coverage to all Americans. It is a federal program that citizens pay into while working and collect from in retirement for life in the form of federal payments. As a result, it has become a considerable part of the federal budget.

In addition to Social Security, which became law during Democratic President Franklin Roosevelt’s presidency, Medicare has remained one of the most important sources of Democratic popularity and was responsible for repeated Democratic congressional victories for 40 years.

Despite the attempt by Democratic President Bill Clinton to pass new legislation on health care that included most Americans, the effort failed because Republicans were determined to deny the Democratic Party any new opportunity to extend its popularity for future decades. That failure led to Republican victory in both houses of Congress for the first time in 40 years.

No health care legislation was passed during the Republican administration of George W. Bush. Barack Obama succeeded in getting passed limited health care legislation, which was known as the Affordable Care Act and became known as “Obamacare.” However, health care has not received much attention in the current Democratic House of Representatives, where impeaching Trump is the top priority for a large number of its members. This represents a glaring oversight, considering the priorities of voters.

It is also remarkable that most issues that voters pay attention to traditionally fall in the Democratic column. Being able to pay off college loans was a priority for 53% of Americans, while climate change was a priority for half of those surveyed.

So, if there are not drastic changes in public opinion, the Democrats’ limited response to all of these priorities may discourage Democrats from voting, and Republicans could decide in favor of Trump and his party.

In fact, a quick look at Americans’ top priorities clearly shows the opportunities that the opposition Democratic Party is wasting. In a survey recently conducted by Pew, an American think tank, it became clear that the top priority for the majority of Americans is health care, regardless of their age, party affiliations, ethnicity or race.

The concern about health care is immediately followed by the issue of addiction. In a question about the issues that represent a problem facing the country, more than two-thirds of those surveyed said health care is the No. 1 most dangerous problem. The same percentage said the same thing about addiction.

The percentage does not vary much between the young and old, Republicans and Democrats, or white respondents, African Americans, and Latinos. Following health care and addition, other issues considered in the ranking varied in priority among different demographic categories.

The fact is, health care is one of those issues that has remained a priority among voters for the past three decades. It still occupies first or second place at least following the state of the economy.

Currently, the economic state of white constituents is specifically better than ever, from their perspective. In an aggregate of public opinion polls, the economy was not a priority for the majority, which still comprises white constituents in American society.

Addiction has become a major issue in recent years because of prescription painkillers, which have become among the most important factors in addiction and a leading cause of death.

Statistics indicate that more than 10 million Americans as young as 12 were exposed to painkiller addiction last year alone. Various cases have been brought in American courts to hold major drug companies responsible for this crisis having promoted these pills and failing to disclose the danger.

When health care is a priority, it traditionally favors the Democrats. That is because during the 20th and 21st centuries, the real moves to extend health care coverage only occurred only during Democratic administrations. For example, duringDemocratic President Lyndon Johnson’s term in the mid-1960s, a law established two of the most important American health care programs: Medicare and Medicaid.

Medicare is still among the most popular programs, so much so that there are demands and recommendations to extend its coverage for all Americans. It is a federal program that citizens pay into while working and collect from in retirement for life in the form of federal payments. As a result, it has become a considerable part of the federal budget.

In addition to Social Security, which became law during Democratic President Franklin Roosevelt’s presidency, Medicare has remained one of the most important sources of Democratic popularity, and is responsible for repeated Democratic congressional victories for 40 years.

Despite the attempt by Democratic President Bill Clinton to pass new legislation on health care that included most Americans, the effort failed because Republicans were determined to deny the Democratic Party any new opportunity to extend its popularity for future decades. That failure led to Republican victory in both houses of Congress for the first time in 40 years.

No health care legislation was passed during the Republican administration of George W. Bush. Barack Obama succeeded in getting limited health care legislation passed, which was known as the Affordable Care Act and became known as “Obamacare.” However, health care has not received much attention in the current Democratic House of Representatives, where impeaching Trump is the top priority for a large number of its members. This represents a glaring oversight, considering the priorities of voters.

It is also remarkable that most issues which voters pay attention to traditionally fall in the Democratic column. Being able to pay off college loans was a priority for 53% of Americans, while climate change was a priority for half of those surveyed.

So, if there are not drastic changes in public opinion, the Democrats’ limited response to all of these priorities may discourage Democrats from voting, and Republicans could decide in favor of Trump and his party.


قبل أسابيع قليلة من أول اقتراع عام في الانتخابات الرئاسية الأمريكية، يبدو الحزب الديمقراطي في وضع لا يحسد عليه، قد يؤدي لإعادة انتخاب ترامب لفترة ثانية، ما لم تحدث تحولات جذرية في الرأي العام، فلا يمكن لمتابع عن كثب لما يجري الآن في أمريكا إلا أن يجد نفسه محاطاً بتغطية إعلامية لا نهائية لقضية عزل ترامب، التي تتوارى معها كل القضايا الأخرى لحد التلاشي، فالساحة السياسية في واشنطن صارت مستوعبة تماماً في تلك القضية الواحدة البعيدة عن اهتمام الكثيرين خارج العاصمة، إذ لا تشير استطلاعات الرأي العام لأي تحول يذكر في نسبة الأمريكيين الذين يدعمون إجراءات العزل أو يوافقون على إزاحة الرئيس من موقعه.

بل إن نظرة سريعة لأولويات القضايا لدى الأمريكيين، تشير بوضوح للفرص التي يضيعها الحزب الديمقراطي، الحزب المنافس للرئيس، ففي استطلاع أجرته مؤخراً مؤسسة بيو الأمريكية، تبين أن القضية ذات الأولوية القصوى لدى أغلبية الأمريكيين، على اختلاف أعمارهم وانتماءاتهم الحزبية والإثنية والعرقية هي قضية الرعاية الصحية.

تليها مباشرة قضية الإدمان، ففي سؤال عن القضايا التي تمثل «مشكلة تواجه البلاد»، قال أكثر من ثلثي المستطلعة آراؤهم إن الرعاية الصحية هي المشكلة الأولى والأخطر، والنسبة نفسها قالت الشيء نفسه بخصوص الإدمان.

ولم تختلف تلك النسبة كثيراً بين الشباب وكبار السن ولا بين الجمهوريين والديمقراطيين، بل وبين من السود والبيض وذوي الأصول اللاتينية. وقد جاء في الترتيب التالي لتلك القضيتين قضايا أخرى تباينت أولوياتها بين تلك القطاعات المختلفة.

والحقيقة أن قضية الرعاية الصحية من القضايا التي لم تغب مطلقاً عن أولويات الناخبين طوال العقود الثلاثة الماضية، وهي ظلت تحتل المرتبة الأولى أو الثانية على الأكثر، حين تكون القضية الأولى هي أحوال الاقتصاد.

ولأن الحالة الاقتصادية لدى البيض تحديداً قد صارت، من وجهة نظرهم، أفضل عن ذي قبل، فإن الاقتصاد في إجمالي حسابات الرأي العام لم يحتل أولوية لدى «الأغلبية»، كون الأغلبية الأمريكية لا تزال للبيض بالمجتمع الأمريكي.

أما قضية الإدمان، فقد صارت قضية كبرى في الأعوام الأخيرة بسبب العقاقير المسكنة للألم، التي صارت توصف للمرضى وصارت من أهم عوامل الإدمان، بل وأسباب الوفاة.

وتقول الإحصاءات إن أكثر من 10 ملايين أمريكي من سن 12 عاماً قد تعرضوا لذلك الإدمان خلال العام الماضي وحده. وقد رفعت قضايا مختلفة لدى المحاكم الأمريكية تتهم شركات الأدوية الكبرى بالمسؤولية عن تلك الكارثة كونها تروج لتلك العقاقير ولا تفصح عن أضرارها.

وحين تكون قضية الرعاية الصحية على قمة الأولويات فإن ذلك يصب، تقليدياً، في مصلحة الديمقراطيين، لأن أي تحول حقيقي في مد مظلة التأمين الصحي لم يحدث إلا في عهد رؤساء ديمقراطيين طوال القرن العشرين والحادي والعشرين، فقد صدر مثلاً في عهد الرئيس الديمقراطي ليندون جونسون، في منتصف ستينيات القرن العشرين، قانون أنشأ اثنين من أهم برامج الرعاية الصحية، هما برنامج الرعاية الصحية للمسنين، وبرنامج الرعاية الصحية للفقراء وذوي الاحتياجات الخاصة.

والأول لا يزال من أكثر البرامج شعبية حتى إن هناك مطالب ومقترحات لمد خدماته لتشمل كل الأمريكيين، فهو برنامج فيدرالي يدفع تكلفته المواطن طوال فترة عمله ويحصل على المحصلة عند تقاعده وحتى مماته عن طريق الأموال الفيدرالية حتى صار جزءاً معتبراً من الميزانية الفيدرالية.

وقد ظل هذا التشريع لجانب قانون الضمان الاجتماعي، الذي صدر في عهد الديمقراطي روزفلت، من أهم مصادر شعبية الديمقراطيين المسؤولة عن فوزهم المتكرر بانتخابات الكونجرس على مدار أربعين عاماً.

ورغم سعي الديمقراطي كلينتون لإصدار تشريع جديد للرعاية الصحية يشمل أغلب الأمريكيين، إلا أنه فشل بسبب إصرار الجمهوريين على حرمان حزبه من تشريع جديد، يمنحهم فرصة جديدة لشعبية تمتد عقوداً إضافية وكان ذلك الفشل هو المسؤول عن فوز الجمهوريين لأول مرة منذ أربعين عاماً في انتخابات الكونجرس بمجلسيه.

ولم تمر أية تشريعات للرعاية الصحية طوال تولي الجمهوري بوش الابن إلي أن نجح أوباما في تمرير تشريع محدود، صار معروفاً باسم «أوباما كير»، لكن الرعاية الصحية لم تحظ باهتمام كبير لدى مجلس النواب الديمقراطي الحالي، الذي كانت قضية عزل ترامب على قمة أولويات عدد كبير من أعضائه، الأمر الذي يمثل غياباً واضحاً لأولويات الناخبين.

اللافت أيضاً أن أغلب القضايا التي تحظى باهتمام الناخبين صبت هي الأخرى تقليدياً في خانة الديمقراطيين، فقد حظيت قضية «القدرة على دفع نفقات التعليم الجامعي» بأولوية لدى 53% من الأمريكيين، بينما كانت قضية المناخ أولوية لدى نصف المستطلعة آراؤهم.

ومن هنا، فإذا لم تحدث تحولات جذرية لدى الرأي العام، فإن استجابة الديمقراطيين المحدودة لتلك الأولويات كلها، من شأنها أن تؤدي لعزوف الناخب الديمقراطي عن التصويت، فيحسم الناخبون الجمهوريون النتيجة لصالح ترامب وحزبه.
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