Coronavirus and the American Election

Until now, circumstances seemed favorable for U.S. President Donald Trump in his battle for a second presidential term.

Donald Trump emerged unscathed from charges that Russia helped him in his last presidential battle against Hillary Clinton, just as he emerged unscathed from an attempt to remove him on the basis of the Ukraine issue.

Despite foreign problems and confrontations, he was able to achieve good economic outcomes, satisfy the rich with tax cuts, and please poor and low income Americans with a recovery that added a large number of new jobs and significantly decreased unemployment.

In terms of party, Trump was able to unify his Republican Party behind him, the newcomer in the last election. That became clear when Republicans rallied around him in the Senate, where their majority acted as a bulwark that prevented conviction and ended the impeachment trial in the president’s favor.

In contrast, the Democratic Party seems very divided as it tries to settle on a nominee to challenge Trump.

The primary elections are a bitter struggle between the two wings of the party. The party leadership’s choice, Barack Obama’s former vice president, Joe Biden, seems to lack the support expected from within the party. In contrast, the rise of the of the nominee representing the left wing of the party, Bernie Sanders, is unwelcome by party leaders because, in their minds, he cannot win the vote of “moderates” inside and outside the party, a vote needed to defeat Trump.

Despite the late entrance of billionaire Michael Bloomberg into the arena in an effort to challenge Sanders’ rise, Bloomberg’s candidacy may have the opposite effect, rallying more support behind Sanders in a contest that transforms the presidential election into a battle between billionaires, not between politicians!*

From afar, circumstances seem set for Trump to win an easy victory. However, the picture from up close is different. It is true that Trump’s popularity now at is its highest since he took office. Nevertheless, his popularity is far from decisive. It is still early. There are more than eight months before the election during which much could happen domestically and internationally, especially with a personality like Trump whose decisions are difficult to predict.

The latest Trump turbulence has arrived with the coronavirus outbreak. It seems that Trump suspects coronavirus could be an important factor in the election battle. Just last week, Trump had little interest in coronavirus. If he had imposed restrictions on travel to China, he would have done so for trade reasons. However, interest has increased recently, and Trump has requested more than $1 billion in additional funding from Congress to confront the virus. Trump also announced that he is prepared to request additional funding if necessary. Subsequently, Trump began tweeting and boasting that his policies have very much limited the spread of coronavirus in the United States until now.

That was not a spontaneous act. Rather, it was a response to an attack on the health policies of the Trump administration, an administration which has disregarded the danger of the coronavirus, according to Democrats, and only took serious action after the World Health Organization announced that no country is safe from the epidemic.** Just as the epidemic has started to subside in China, however, it has begun a phase of massive expansion all over the world. It has also become clear that finding an effective treatment will take months. The coronavirus was then discovered in the United States. The case had no links to China or countries where the virus has appeared, which is the most dangerous sign for America and the world.

Trump wading into the battle against coronavirus could represent his confidence that America’s enormous capabilities can match the virus if it ravages the country.

It could be proof of the seriousness with which the administration is confronting all possibilities. That would certainly be welcome news because, if the coronavirus becomes a pandemic as many fear, it will be a decisive factor in the course of the election. Perhaps that effect would be even greater if Sanders wins the nomination battle in the Democratic Party.**

Since assuming the presidency, Trump has waged war against the health care law that former President Obama put in place. Trump considers it a waste of public money and a threat to the interests of private insurance companies, and has promised a better health care system, which he has yet to present. There is no doubt that coronavirus increases the importance of this fundamental issue for American citizens, making health care a crucial factor in the upcoming election battle.

Trump realizes that Sanders’ advance within the Democratic Party pushes the issue of health care coverage to the forefront. He understands that the indicators have, until now, ensured that the Democrats will succeed in regaining the support among minorities that they lost in the last presidential election. Trump also recognizes the importance of a coronavirus pandemic ravaging America in the midst of the election while three-fourths of Americans do not have health insurance, especially if the challenger has promised free health care for the coming years and the American people are asking, “Why is the greatest nation unable to provide its citizens the same care as other countries less interested in 'greatness' and more concerned with its people?!”

The entrance of coronavirus into the U.S. election will probably be the decisive factor in who rules the greatest nation.

*Editor’s note: Michael Bloomberg ended his campaign for president on March 4.

**Editor’s note: The World Health Organization declared COVID-19 or the coronavirus to be a pandemic on March 11.