Why America’s ‘Human Rights Card’ Won’t Work: the New US-China Cold War over Hong Kong

The U.S. and Europe are intensifying their criticism of China as a country not respecting human rights in the wake of the Hong Kong issue.

However, this human rights card hasn't gained the support of many countries, and has almost no effect in isolating China.

Developing countries, the majority of countries in the world, are showing signs of distrust and caution toward advanced countries' ideas of human rights and freedom.

The U.S. and China may be kicking off a new cold war with Hong Kong in the middle, but there is a high likelihood that this will be a grueling war with no winner.

How Effective Is the Human Rights Card?

On May 29, the American government announced it would repeal special treatment of Hong Kong. This is being seen as sanctions against China’s national security law that threatens Hong Kong’s high level of autonomy.

In addition, the U.S. has expressed concerns with the U.K., Canada and Australia, and is also supposedly considering canceling visas for Chinese students.

Since President Donald Trump took office in 2017, he has jumped into a trade war with China; a recent war of words over the origin of COVID-19 has also escalated. Under these circumstances, the U.S. has shuffled its “human rights deck” over the crackdown on Muslims in the Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region, and it’s possible that the U.S. is also using the Hong Kong situation as a diplomatic tool to project an image of China as a country which threatens freedoms and human rights.

Nevertheless, during the standoff that could be considered a new cold war between the U.S. and China, there are doubts as to whether the U.S. can effectively use human rights as a shield to ward off China.

This isn’t just because economic relations with China are of vital importance to the U.S.; even if China is seen as the “enemy of freedom,” this doesn’t particularly create any big issues with the vast majority of other countries around the globe.

Developing Countries Quietly Watching

More than anything, we need to first acknowledge this: it is only advanced nations which do not hesitate to meddle in the internal affairs of other countries, and this is not limited to China's affairs. Moreover, advanced countries are overwhelmingly a minority, and do not even make up one-sixth of United Nation member states.

In stark contrast, developing nations, which form the overwhelming majority of countries in the world, generally don’t comment about the domestic affairs of other countries. There are only a few nations such as Russia that enthusiastically support China, but most developing countries don’t even try to touch on the Hong Kong issue, regardless of whether or not they are democratic.

Conjecture about China’s Economic Presence Alone Cannot Fully Explain This

For example, look at India. Although many issues still remain, India has conducted elections since its independence, and lately has clearly been at conflict with China. Nonetheless, its media rarely cover the problems in Hong Kong, and India’s government has almost never criticized China over it.

Developing nations have a strong tendency to go out of their way to avoid involvement with the domestic affairs of other countries, and this is not limited to the Hong Kong issue. In other words, noninterference takes precedence for developing nations.

Because of this, while it’s easy for other developed nations to take notice of America’s human rights card, there is little momentum among developing nations to align with it. We can’t really say that China will be in international isolation over the Hong Kong issue.

Caution with Respect to Human Rights and Freedom

There are a few reasons why countries outside of the West might take this position.

First, most developing nations have a colonial past, which the colonizers conducted under the pretext of “civilizing” them. Therefore, developing nations are extremely wary of advanced countries interfering, with their lofty ideas of human rights and freedom.

Secondly, since many developing countries have dictatorial governments and human rights issues, they especially value a policy of noninterference.

Thirdly, they are wary of the politicization of human rights and freedom.

Advanced nations tend to overlook human rights issues when they occur in connection with developing nations that they have strong ties to; this essentially creates a clear double standard. This is demonstrated by America’s usual silence over India and Saudi Arabia’s human rights issues.

Bosses don’t gain the trust of those around them if they overlook mistakes committed by subordinates they like, while harshly shouting abuse at those with whom they don’t have a good relationship.

The Difference with the Tiananmen Square Massacre

We can even see this attitude from developing countries during the Tiananmen Square Massacre in 1989.

In truth, while many advanced countries criticized and imposed sanctions against China, most developing nations did not even comment, and some even said thy understood China’s predicament, although some of these statements were not voiced very loudly. In this way, China was able to escape international isolation.

Furthermore, in 1989, China was not only receiving aid from advanced nations, but 80% of its trade was also dependent on them. However, China’s situation today is vastly different. China is receiving almost no aid, and trade with advanced nations has dropped to about 60%.

Put differently, China has consciously increased relations with developing countries since the Tiananmen Square massacre. This has been part of a strategy to maintain its international stature.

On another front, many developing nations are less dependent on advanced nations than they were at the time of the Tiananmen Square massacre. This can be viewed as a further factor in reducing the number of countries gathering under the human rights banners of advanced nations.

Advanced nations have a strong tendency to downplay the roles of developing nations in shaping international public opinion. However, the majority of members in international organizations like the U.N. are developing countries, which means, if advanced countries cannot get the support of developing nations, such advanced countries will be unable to preserve their power.

If this is the case, even if Trump can play the human rights card to the American public and other developed nations, this won’t isolate China, and at best, will show an actual lack of diplomatic achievement.

A War of Attrition with No Winner

On the other hand, it will be difficult for China to gather support from other countries over the Hong Kong issue.

There is increasing dissatisfaction with Chinese enterprises in developing nations as well; this tendency is strong with low-income groups. Even in Africa, which has long been China’s international foothold until now, racism against Chinese people has been surfacing due to the spread of COVID-19.

Under these conditions, it’s risky for governments in developing nations to proactively support China. That’s why it’s no wonder some countries are even demanding gratitude for putting themselves at risk for China.

That said, countries choosing to do so are limited, and most are instead decidedly waiting to see how this plays out.

In this way, the U.S. and China may both keep up the fireworks while neither is able to attract many supporters. This also means that the people of Hong Kong will get left behind.