US Reliving COVID-19 Nightmare: 3 Glaring Problems

Published in Cankao
(China) on 26 June 2020
by Fan Fan (link to originallink to original)
Translated from by Thomas Tang. Edited by Daniel Rosen.
Is the U.S. reliving its coronavirus nightmare?

According to data from Johns Hopkins University, as this is being written, the U.S. has had 39,911 new confirmed coronavirus cases in the past 24 hours, and for four consecutive days, more than 30,000 new infections were confirmed each day.

It has been 3 1/2 months since the U.S. declared a state of emergency due to the pandemic, during the height of which, the number of daily infections was only about 39,000, but even now, there is a rapid rate of increase. No wonder many are feeling that America is experiencing a nightmarish déjà vu.

An op-ed in The New York Times on June 24 also shared this concern when it said that the country seemed to have found itself back in March, when the outbreak began. At the time, the lockdown had just started, face masks were out of stock everywhere and the death count was skyrocketing.

Currently, there are two crucial risk factors worth noting for the U.S.

First, a new epicenter may emerge. At the beginning of the outbreak, New York and New Jersey became the first such epicenters, with their combined cases accounting for more than 23% of the entire country. Now, however, these two states have adopted relatively stricter control measures, and the number of new cases has started to drop. On the other hand, the situation in states that had not experienced as much initial impact, such as Texas, Florida and California, are suddenly deteriorating. Recently, the three more populous states are seeing daily infection rates exceeding 5,000, which account for around half of all new U.S. cases in the same time frame.

Second, the real number may be higher. Since the start of the coronavirus pandemic, there has been major suspicion and controversy regarding the presumed number of real cases due to insufficient testing and lack of official data. On June 25, Robert Redfield, director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, delivered a scoop, saying that the U.S. may have only diagnosed 10% of the population infected with the coronavirus. Thus, according to his estimates, more than 23 million people nationwide may have already been infected.

The enormous yet undiagnosed infected population is indeed worrying and presents its own hidden risks. However, along with the soaring case numbers, this constitutes only the tip of the iceberg. Under the surface, there are three big, glaring problems that have been bending the curve and affecting the public's perception of the pandemic

1. An Incompetent Government.

The Trump administration has been criticized for downplaying the threat of the outbreak, ignoring the dearth of sufficient testing and emergency supplies, and playing the blame game.

On June 25, the U.S. government scored low marks again for its unsatisfactory performance combating the outbreak. A new report released by the Government Accountability Office, an agency that works for Congress, claims that the American government was clearly underprepared for the pandemic.

The report points out that the Strategic National Stockpile had an inadequate supply of personal protective equipment, ventilators, and other critical medical supplies to meet the needs of states and territories. Viral testing data compiled by the CDC has been incomplete and inconsistent, making it more difficult to track the infection rate and inform decisions on reopening communities. The federal government also issued relief funds hurriedly and chaotically; but because it did not consult death records, $1.4 billion was sent to deceased individuals.

2. A Choice between Rebooting or Not Rebooting

The controversy over rebooting the economy and restoring control measures has been around from the beginning. In mid-April, the Trump administration issued reopening guidelines despite general opposition from health experts. In some cases, states even faked data in order to reopen. Although experts, the media and international organizations issued repeated warnings, all 50 states were in some stage of reopening by late May; at the time, the number of daily new cases exceeded 20,000.

Warnings have accurately predicted that rebooting the economy too early would lead to a resurgence. According to CNN, at least 29 states are experiencing a rebound in cases, including Florida and Texas, which reopened earlier. As a result, these two states, together with Utah and Oregon, have had to press pause on reopening to varying degrees.

3. A Society Torn apart by Injustice.

The death of George Floyd, an African American man, again exposed entrenched racial inequalities in American society, and triggered the largest protests against police violence in the U.S. in decades. The inequalities are also evident during this pandemic: the death rate for patients of African descent is significantly higher than that of other races. This death rate is 2.6 times that of white people and accounts for 27% of the total U.S. death toll. The higher mortality rate of African Americans is closely related to their low economic status and lack of economic security. Alongside racial inequalities, economic inequalities also exist for others – the infection and mortality rates of Latinos, who also hold low economic status, are on average much higher than those of white people.

In this regard, Robert Reich, former U.S. secretary of labor and professor of public policy at the University of California, Berkeley, offered an explanation. The poor account for the largest proportion of deaths in the population, especially African Americans and Hispanics. Most of them are involved in the service industry, which puts them at risk of infection. Many became unemployed as well and due to low income, cannot receive decent medical care. Many also suffer from chronic diseases such as diabetes and heart disease, symptoms of which are likely to worsen after infection.

The coronavirus pandemic is making an unprecedented impact and presenting an unprecedented challenge for countries around the world, especially the U.S., which is at its epicenter. The competency of the country’s government is being repeatedly tested. The Trump administration faces three major trials: How does it optimize the prevention and control of this disease? How does it balance reopening the economy and controlling the disease? And how does it solve the inequalities highlighted by this crisis?


美国新冠疫情重返“噩梦期”了吗?

根据美国约翰斯·霍普金斯大学的数据,截至北京时间6月26日6时30分,美国过去24小时内新增确诊病例39991例,新增确诊病例连续4日逾3万例。

如今,距离美国因疫情宣布全国进入紧急状态已经3个半月了,在疫情最严峻时单日新增病例也不过39000例左右,现在病例数增长还是如此迅猛,难怪很多人会有美国疫情重返“噩梦期”的感觉。

《纽约时报》6月24日的评论也表达出了这种担忧:

这个国家似乎惊觉自己回到了3月——这场新冠大流行的初期。当时,封锁才刚开始,口罩正供不应求,死亡人数正在飙升。

当前,美国疫情有两大风险值得注意:

第一,新的疫情“中心”可能出现。

回顾美国新冠疫情,纽约州、新泽西州最先成为疫情中心,病例数占据全美的23%以上。但如今,两州在采取相对严格的防控措施后,新增病例数开始下降,而之前疫情并不严重的州,比如得克萨斯州、佛罗里达州和加利福尼亚州这三个人口最多的州情况却突然恶化,近几日的单日新增病例几乎都超过5000,占据全美同期新增病例的一半左右。

第二,真实病例或 “更多”。

自美国新冠疫情暴发以来,由于核算检测率不足、官方数据缺乏,关于“真实”感染病例数的猜测和争论此起彼伏。当地时间6月25日,美国疾病控制与预防中心主任罗伯特·雷德菲尔德曝了“猛料”,称美国可能仅确诊了感染新冠病毒人口的10%。根据雷德菲尔德的估计,美国可能实际上有超过2300万人感染新冠肺炎。

庞大而未被发现的病例存在着实让人担忧,这无异于隐藏在大河中的“巨石”。但问题是,美国疫情风险并非只是病例数猛增或者隐藏病例多那么简单。这背后,有三大问题穿插其中,始终影响着美国疫情的走向和民众对疫情防控的观感,尤为显眼。

其一,政府抗疫不力。

淡化疫情威胁、无视检测不足和防疫物资不够、推卸防疫责任等问题,一直是特朗普政府抗疫表现饱受多方诟病之处。

当地时间6月25日,美国政府抗疫表现再次被打了“低分”。国会下属机构政府问责局当天发布最新疫情监督报告,称美国政府在抗疫方面明显“准备不足”。

报告指出,在物资储备上,美国国家战略储备不足以应对各州与地方的个人防护设备、呼吸机和其他重要医疗用品的需求;在数据发布上,美国疾控中心编制的数据“不完整和不一致”,数据缺漏使得追踪感染率、制订重启计划等“难上加难”;在疫情补助上,联邦政府发放救济资金匆忙且混乱,在没有掌握死亡记录的情况下,向大批死者发放了14亿美元的政府救济资金。

其二,重启还是防控?

回顾美国新冠疫情,关于经济重启和疫情防控的矛盾和争论一直存在。特朗普政府早在4月中旬就不顾卫生专家的广泛反对发布了重启经济指南,而部分州甚至为了重启经济篡改疫情数据。尽管面临来自卫生专家、媒体和国际机构的多次提醒,全美50个州还是在5月下旬全部走上复工之路。但那时,美国单日新增病例尚在两万以上。

如今,专家们关于过早重启经济会导致疫情反弹的警告成真了。据美国有线电视新闻网报道,至少有29个州的疫情出现反弹。这些州里就包括较早重启经济的佛罗里达州和得克萨斯州。结果是,现在这些州与犹他州、俄勒冈州等一起,又都不同程度地按下了重启“暂停键”。

其三,“不公”撕裂社会。

非裔美国人乔治·弗洛伊德之死将美国社会中的种族不平等顽疾再次暴露于人前,引发了美国数十年来规模最大的抗议警察暴力的示威活动。这种不平等,在新冠疫情期间也有充分体现:非裔的新冠死亡率严重高于其他人种,是白种人的2.6倍,占美国新冠死亡总数的27%。非裔更高的死亡率与其明显弱势的经济地位、缺乏抗击疫病的经济保障息息相关。这种“种族差异”的背后,也有经济地位的不平等。同样,整体经济地位较为弱势的拉美裔的感染率和死亡率也远高于白人。

对此,美国前劳工部长、加利福尼亚大学伯克利分校公共政策教授罗伯特·赖克解释道:从死亡病例在人口中的占比来看,最高的是贫困阶层,尤其是非裔和拉美裔。他们大多从事服务业,直接面临病毒感染风险,也有不少人失业。由于收入低,他们无法接受像样的医疗服务,许多人患有糖尿病和心脏病等基础疾病,感染后症状容易恶化。

新冠疫情对各国来说,都是历史性的冲击和挑战,对全球疫情的“震中”美国而言,尤其如此。如何优化疫情防控,如何平衡抗疫与经济,如何解决疫情凸显的不平等问题,始终拷问着美国的治理能力,也是特朗普政府必须面对的三大考验。
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