Quarrel with China May Bury Trump’s Dreams

Calling U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo a politician whom we shouldn't waste time with is nothing new, to be sure. One cannot count the number of journalists and politicians who have spoken about him like this.

It is another matter altogether, though, when a diplomat does this (and not just any diplomat, but the official spokesman for the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the People's Republic of China), thereby violating all conceivable and inconceivable traditions of Eastern diplomacy, especially those of China, where the language is rich in complex forms of politeness.

Nevertheless, Zhao Lijian said what he said, and he's unlikely to be fired for violating etiquette with personal attacks against the chief American diplomat. His retort is atypical for a person of such rank or nationality (both of which imply a sense of being self-possessed), but this situation does have a logical explanation. In fact, there are two of them: one banal and one a conspiracy theory.

Let’s start with the banal. The reason for the quarrel between the two powers remains the same: Hong Kong, and the United States’ belief that the Chinese government has violated Hong Kong's autonomy.

“With the ink barely dry on the repressive National Security Law, local authorities — in an Orwellian move — have now established a central government national security office, started removing books critical of the CCP from library shelves, banned political slogans, and are now requiring schools to enforce censorship,” Pompeo stated. Hearing these words, Zhao Lijiang lost his temper.

The correspondents of Vzglyad have already written about the conflict surrounding Hong Kong and the costs for each affected party (the U.S., China and Hong Kong itself). One can only add that Beijing has behaved predictably until now, imposing limitations on autonomy at any economic cost, if only to cut off the roots of separatist tendencies.

The operation is proceeding painfully, but now, it seems it is not as difficult as it could be. The streets of the city-state are no longer exploding with millions attending rallies. However, this does not make the question any less painful when it is one of categorical intransigence by officials in Beijing. This is an issue of the territorial integrity of China, to the extent it is currently in doubt.

This is its own kind of national trauma, very reminiscent of that of Russia. The Xinhai Revolution led to the emergence of a government for the Chinese people (not for the Qing Dynasty and not for the great powers). However, the overthrow of the Qing empire cost China great territorial losses — almost all of the national outskirts seceded or attempted to secede. The civil war and Japanese occupation complicated the situation even further, and subsequently, the Communist Party of China gradually returned lost ground to the country, similar to what occurred in the Soviet Union under Joseph Stalin.

Mongolia and Tuva were lost by the Chinese, most likely irrevocably, but the process of returning land continues — with Taiwan next in line. And Beijing will not tolerate a single uprising from Taiwan, or any of the regions that have already been returned if they try to stand between the Chinese government and the problem province. This is a red line, a taboo, a desire for boorishness — call it what you want. This is what Pompeo encountered.

Similarly, the Kremlin categorically refuses to discuss any issues related to Crimea. The topic is closed and discussion is impossible, period. Indeed, this does not necessitate being rude to Americans. But it should be borne in mind that the secretary of state rarely calls Crimea to memory, while China, Hong Kong and Uyghuristan are the main focus of Pompeo’s diplomacy, sharing in the “sinophobia” of the Trump administration.

So we proceed to the second explanation, the conspiracy theory, according to which Lijian calmly and intentionally stooped to criticize, and surely will again, that it is some kind of attempt to influence the outcome of the American presidential election.

For China, this is a fundamentally important enterprise. In terms of China’s economic and geopolitical interests, Trump is the worst president since Eisenhower, because from his standpoint, China threatens America’s global dominance by stealing jobs from his supporters.

Quite another matter altogether is his Democratic rival, Joe Biden. Biden has been well known in Beijing for years and is very respected and greatly loved. At the very least, he is said to be on friendly terms with a few members of the Chinese elite as a result of the time he spent on the Senate Committee on Foreign Relations.

It is not surprising that under Barack Obama (who, rumor has it, was not considered a serious politician by the Chinese elite), it was Biden who was responsible for Chinese affairs and attained much success. Rumor-mongers, including Trump, are even confident that the ties between the former vice president and the Celestial Empire are corrupt.

In general, President Trump is bad for China. He is a storm that can only be waited out, while Biden is not just good — he’s wonderful. It doesn’t get any better than him.

But for Beijing to publicly support Biden would be to drown him. A much more effective strategy is to just try to ignore Trump.

Brush off his claims. Make fun of his attacks. Insult his diplomatic representatives — you are nobody, and we have no time to waste on you.

This will inevitably reach American voters, who will not be offended on behalf of their leader, but will instead see that Trump simply has nothing he can use to challenge China. Demonstrative neglect is not something you can afford in a relationship with the president of a truly great country.

This is the same man, by the way, who promised to “make America great again.”

Of course, there is a risk that Trump will get angry and still manage to mess things up in six months, but probably not. Some of Trump’s patriotic electorate may be disappointed in their president and — no, not vote for Biden — but stay at home on Election Day.

This is especially important given that, four years ago, Trump brought many to the polls who had previously voted. The current dissatisfaction of this group of voters deprives the incumbent president of a significant trump card. That will very possibly be the deciding factor.

No one knows at the moment whether Trump can be reelected for a second term. But in any case, it will depend on only a few states. In some of those states, the Republican and Democrat candidates will be neck and neck, so the loss of just a few thousand votes could be fatal for the incumbent president.

In the future, it is unlikely that anyone will be able to justifiably point to the contempt of the spokesman for China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs as the cause of Trump’s defeat. Yet we will not be able to rule it out.