US Election: Cognitive Ability, ‘Peaceful’ Violence and ‘SMAGA’

Published in Veja
(Brazil) on 29 July 2020
by Vilma Gryzinski (link to originallink to original)
Translated from by Keith Atchison. Edited by Daniel Rosen.
The terms of this tumultuous moment define a contest in which Joe Biden seems to have everything going for him, except all of his mental faculties.

Do you know what SMAGA is? It stands for "Secret Make America Great Again." That is, the silent or secret army that, like in 2016, didn’t show up in the polls, but pulled the levers on Election Day for Donald Trump.

Only 96 days remain until the Nov. 3 election, with COVID-19 blowing up and both candidates’ teams trying to exploit all their adversary’s weaknesses.

The acronym SMAGA and the idea behind it are comical, but they reflect the high anxiety ongoing in the Trump campaign — which recently swapped in a new campaign manager.

With polls consistently showing a 4%-12% advantage for Biden, the Trump campaign’s attempt to discredit the polls reeks of desperation. If the polls were in favor of Trump, of course they would be touted as the truth.

Without the roaring pre-COVID-19 economy, and with 150,000 deaths from the disease, it’s as if Trump has entered into the election campaign with both arms tied behind his back.

Except for the near unanimous support of Republican politicians, of their own will or under pressure from their grassroots supporters, Trump, much like he was in 2016, is faced with three decisive months of campaigning against everything and against everyone. And considering the many self-sabotaging explosions in Twitter and at live events, he is at times even against himself.

As for Biden, his battle is against the sentiment that that the election is in the bag.

Everyone knows that in 2016, Trump defeated Hillary Clinton by edging her out in battleground states by just 80,000 votes, giving him the Electoral College victory despite receiving fewer votes in the overall popular vote.

Now, everyone knows that up to the last minute, Clinton was considered the clear favorite to win, with a victory speech and cabinet appointments ready in her pantsuit pocket.

Could the same polls that were wrong in 2016 be right in 2020?

Many Republicans allege that the sampling used in current polls is skewed to include more loyal Democratic voters to the exclusion of a reasonably large group of undecided voters. This refers to the “SMAGA group,” the voters who feel excluded and looked down on by the elite because they like Trump.

The certainty of Biden’s victory is so strong that he is giving himself the luxury of picking a vice presidential running mate who is more “political” and less “electoral,” as a way to win over the far left — like a Black woman aligned with the radicalism of the current protests — effectively dispensing with the idea of using a vice presidential pick to moderate the ticket.

Biden played this moderating role himself when Barack Obama tapped him to be the vice presidential candidate: a centrist senator capable of appealing to Democrats who harbored suspicions of a candidate who could go on to become the first Black president as well as the most left.

Well, Biden is not Obama. He does not have the charisma, the brilliance and the novelty of the ex-president. Not to mention, Obama was 47 years old during his first presidential election. Biden is 77.

An ex-manager of Bernie Sanders' campaign, Nina Turner, recently made a scatological comparison for what Biden represents to the socialist senator’s supporters, a comparison which is currently setting fire to the street and strongly supporting “peaceful violence” — another popular expression being used to mock journalists and politicians who always speak of peaceful protests despite acts of mob aggression. “It’s like saying to somebody, ‘You have a bowl of shit in front of you, and all you’ve got to do is eat half of it instead of the whole thing,” Turner said.

Age and the constant verbal slip-ups from Biden, who has introduced his sister as his wife and who said that 100 million Americans had died of COVID-19, initially raised the topic of “cognitive ability” with respect to the presidential contest.

Although Trump at 74 is no spring chicken, he boasts of having full command of his mental faculties. And he has challenged Biden to present a medical exam proving the same.

Ideally, the campaign managers would keep Biden locked in the basement where he’s been isolating, communicating only through interviews with sympathetic journalists willing to boost his standings rather than entering a real clash.

As this is impossible, the candidate will need to put himself out there more. And the first debate is already scheduled: Aug. 24* in Cleveland, Ohio.

The debates could bring out the best — and also the worst — of each candidate.

In one of the more memorable moments in presidential debate history, Ronald Reagan, then 73, said in 1984 to his Democratic opponent Walter Mondale, “I will not make age an issue of this campaign. I am not going to exploit, for political purposes, my opponent's youth and inexperience.”

Everyone laughed, including Mondale, who was decisively beaten when the final votes were tallied.

Biden’s team should be prepared with dozens of responses just as good as Reagan’s when it comes to the topic of age.

He’ll just need to be sure to remember them.

*Translator’s note: The first debate is scheduled for Sept. 29.


TITLE: Eleição EUA: capacidade cognitiva, violência pacífica, SMAGA
LEADER: Estes são alguns termos do momento tumultuado de uma disputa em que Joe Biden parece estar com tudo, menos a plena capacidade mental

BODY:
Sabem o que é SMAGA? Secret Make America Great Again. Ou seja, o exército silencioso ou secreto que, como em 2016, não abriu o voto nas pesquisas, mas saiu de casa para cravar o nome de Donald Trump.

Faltam 96 dias para a eleição de 3 de novembro, com o coronavírus bombando e as equipes dos dois candidatos tentando explorar todos os defeitos do adversário.

O acrônimo SMAGA e a ideia por trás dele são divertidos, mas refletem a alta ansiedade vivida na campanha de Trump, que trocou recentemente de diretor.

Diante das pesquisas que constantemente dão uma vantagem de 4 a 12 pontos para Joe Biden, apelar para a descrença nesses levantamentos é um indício de sufoco. Se as pesquisas fossem a favor de Trump, claro, estariam sendo propagadas como a voz da verdade.

Sem a economia pujante da era pré-coronavírus, e com 150 mil mortes na conta da doença, é como se Trump estivesse entrando na disputa com os dois braços amarrados.

Excetuando-se o apoio quase unânime dos políticos republicados, de boa vontade ou sob pressão das bases, Trump chega aos três meses decisivos da campanha como em 2016: contra tudo e contra todos, muitas vezes até contra ele mesmo, se forem incluídas na conta as frequentes explosões de autossabotagem, ao vivo ou pelo Twitter.
Do lado de Biden, a batalha é contra o clima de “já ganhou”.

Todos sabem que Trump tratorou Hillary Clinton em 2016 por causa de apenas 80 mil votos que “viraram” os estados-chave e lhe deram a vitória no Colégio Eleitoral, embora ela tivesse a maioria na votação direta.

E todos sabem que, até o último minuto, Hillary era dada como vencedora incontestável, com discurso da vitória e ministér prontinhos no bolso do blazer.

As pesquisas que erraram em 2016 podem estar certas em 2020?

Muitos republicanos alegam que a amostragem das pesquisas atuais tende muito a consultar eleitores fieis do Partido Democrata, ignorando a razoável parcela de indecisos. Ou a turma do SMAGA, os eleitores que se sentem excluídos por gostarem de Trump e desprezados pelas elites.
A certeza da vitória de Biden é tanta que ele está se dando ao luxo de escolher uma candidata a vice-presidente mais “política” e menos “eleitoral”, no sentido que conquiste a ala mais à esquerda – tipo uma política negra alinhada com o radicalismo da atual onda de protestos – e dispense o papel de contrapeso.

O próprio Biden exerceu este papel quando Barack Obama foi candidato pela primeira vez: um senador centrista capaz de apelar aos democratas que desconfiavam das intenções daquele que viria a ser o primeiro presidente negro e também o mais à esquerda.

Bem, Joe Biden não é Barack Obama. Não tem o carisma, o brilho e o gosto de novidade do ex-presidente. Sem contar que Obama tinha 47 anos e Biden está com 77.


Uma ex-diretora da campanha de Bernie Sanders fez uma comparação escatológica entre o que Joe Biden representa para o eleitorado do senador socialista que hoje está botando fogo nas ruas ou apoiando fortemente a “violência pacífica” – outro termo do momento para ironizar jornalistas e políticos que constantemente falam em protestos pacíficos enquanto atos de agressão em massa são cometidos.

“É como se alguém dissesse ‘Você tem um prato de m**** na sua frente e não precisa comer tudo, só a metade’”, comparou Nina Turner.

“A coisa continua a ser m****”.

A idade e as constantes derrapadas verbais de Biden, que já apresentou a irmã como se fosse sua mulher e falou que 100 milhões de americanos tinha morrido de Covid-19, introduziram na campanha presidencial a expressão capacidade cognitiva.

Embora Trump não seja nenhum garotão – 74 anos -, jacta-se de ter pleno comando de suas habilidades mentais. E desafia Biden a apresentar um exame médico comprovando o mesmo.
Idealmente, os chefes de campanha manteriam Biden trancado no porão onde passou o isolamento, comunicando-se apenas através de entrevistas a jornalistas mais do que dispostos a fazer o papel de escada do que um embate real.

Como é impossível, o candidato terá que se expor mais. E o primeiro debate já está marcado: 24 de agosto, em Cleveland, Ohio.

Os debates podem trazer o melhor – e também o pior – de cada candidato.

Num dos momentos memoráveis da história dos debates presidenciais, Ronald Reagan, então com 73 anos, disse em 1984 ao adversário democrata, Walter Mondale: “Não vou explorar, por motivos políticos, a idade e a inexperiência de meu oponente”.

Todo mundo deu risada, inclusive Mondale, posteriormente massacrado nas urnas.

A equipe de Joe Biden deve ter preparado dezenas de respostas tão boas quanto essa quando o assunto é idade.

Só falta ele se lembrar delas.
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