US Election: Will There Be a Winner on Nov. 4?
Published in Milenio
(Mexico) on 4 September 2020
by Carlos Ivan Morrero Arellano (link to
original)
The U.S. presidential election will be an atypical and difficult-to-predict process. The results could have disastrous consequences for the United States and beyond. Before the pandemic, Donald Trump’s chances of being reelected were high, as the Democrats could not find a coherent narrative. Now the outlook is radically different.
In the midst of a serious health crisis and extreme social polarization, Joe Biden is the clear front runner in the polls and is shaping up to be the winner; however, a “silent majority” is also lurking to ensure the Republican candidate’s second term.
Trump has declared that he is not willing to accept defeat. For him, losing would mean going to trial and possibly to jail. He is anticipating voter fraud, presumably by mail-in voting. This is no small issue: 46 states, with 190 million voters, will allow absentee voting. These voters are mainly located in urban, Democratic-leaning areas.
According to the Pew Research Center, around 60 percent of Biden’s voters prefer mail-in voting, compared to 19 percent of Trump’s supporters. Hence, the systemic attack to delegitimize and weaken the postal system.
In addition to that, there is the anticipated post-election conflict in the swing states: Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania. The race is so close in these states that it may not be possible to announce a winner on the night of Nov. 3 or in the following days.
There is a high chance of paralysis and uncertainty in the time leading up to the election. Months of legal and political battles and growing social instability would follow. This is not just a U.S. election; it has global implications. Trump’s threats to not recognize Biden’s victory must not be taken lightly; he is the president of the most powerful country.
Two months away from the election, there are more questions than answers. The country’s democratic institutions are being put to the test in a high-risk election process in which the next president will probably not be quickly or clearly identified.
In the midst of a serious health crisis and extreme social polarization, Joe Biden is the clear front runner in the polls and is shaping up to be the winner; however, a “silent majority” is also lurking to ensure the Republican candidate’s second term.
Trump has declared that he is not willing to accept defeat. For him, losing would mean going to trial and possibly to jail. He is anticipating voter fraud, presumably by mail-in voting. This is no small issue: 46 states, with 190 million voters, will allow absentee voting. These voters are mainly located in urban, Democratic-leaning areas.
According to the Pew Research Center, around 60 percent of Biden’s voters prefer mail-in voting, compared to 19 percent of Trump’s supporters. Hence, the systemic attack to delegitimize and weaken the postal system.
In addition to that, there is the anticipated post-election conflict in the swing states: Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania. The race is so close in these states that it may not be possible to announce a winner on the night of Nov. 3 or in the following days.
There is a high chance of paralysis and uncertainty in the time leading up to the election. Months of legal and political battles and growing social instability would follow. This is not just a U.S. election; it has global implications. Trump’s threats to not recognize Biden’s victory must not be taken lightly; he is the president of the most powerful country.
Two months away from the election, there are more questions than answers. The country’s democratic institutions are being put to the test in a high-risk election process in which the next president will probably not be quickly or clearly identified.
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