Concerns over Turmoil around the US Supreme Court

Published in Nihon Keizai Shimbun (Nikkei)
(Japan) on 27 September 2020
by (link to originallink to original)
Translated from by Eric Stimson. Edited by Helaine Schweitzer.
President Donald Trump has nominated conservative federal appellate judge Amy Coney Barrett to the Supreme Court. The majority Republican Party’s strategy is to complete the confirmation process in the Senate quickly, while the opposition Democrats insist on waiting until after the presidential election in November. The concern is that this will get entangled in the outcome of the election and create deep turmoil within American society.

This nomination follows the death of liberal Supreme Court Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg. If Barrett, who opposes abortion, is confirmed, the Supreme Court would be made up of six conservatives and three liberals, tilting it rightward.

There are two problems with the Trump administration’s response. When a vacancy opened up on the Supreme Court in 2016, the Republicans refused to conduct confirmation hearings for the judge nominated by then-President Barack Obama, claiming that the winner of the presidential election should decide. The Republican’s current response must be regarded as applying a double standard.

Another problem is that by prioritizing the need to have a majority of conservatives on the Court, Trump suggests that he will not recognize the results of the presidential election if he loses and will launch a legal battle instead. Election Day is over a month away, but he has already said, “I think [the election] will end up in the Supreme Court.”

In this year’s presidential election, many supporters of the Democrats are expected to vote by mail out of fear of spreading new COVID-19 infections at the polling place. In that case, Trump will block the counting of mail-in ballots and unilaterally declare victory. Democrats fear a scenario where, even if they sue to demand an investigation of the voting, the Supreme Court would reject it.

It is not right for the president, who is the head of state, to repeatedly make statements that throw the fairness of the election into doubt in America, which prides itself on being an advanced democracy. Some even imagine that if Barrett is confirmed before Election Day and protests by anti-Trump forces turn violent, there will not even be anything like an election.

If the superpower experiences a power vacuum, China or others may move to take advantage of the opportunity. We cannot overlook this situation as merely a story that is happening in a foreign country.


トランプ米大統領が連邦最高裁の判事に保守派のバレット控訴裁判事を指名した。与党の共和党は上院での承認手続きを早期に終える方針だが、野党の民主党は11月の大統領選後に先送りすべきだと主張する。選挙の行方と絡まり、米社会を大きな混乱に陥れないかが心配である。

この指名は、リベラル派のギンズバーグ判事の死去に伴うものだ。人工妊娠中絶などに反対するバレット氏が就任すれば、最高裁の構成は保守派6人対リベラル派3人となり、右傾化する。

トランプ政権の対応には問題がふたつある。共和党は2016年に最高裁に空席が生じた際、「大統領選の勝者が決めるべきだ」として、当時のオバマ大統領が指名した判事の承認を拒んだ。今回の対応は、ダブルスタンダードといわざるをえない。

もうひとつは、トランプ氏が最高裁で保守派が優位になることを前提にして、大統領選で負けても認めず、法廷闘争に持ち込む構えをみせていることだ。投票日まで1カ月以上あるが、いまから「(選挙の)結果は最高裁で争われることになる」と語る。

今年の大統領選では、新型コロナウイルスの感染拡大を懸念し、民主党の支持者の多くが郵便での投票を選ぶ見通しだ。そこでトランプ氏は郵便分の開票を妨げて一方的に勝利を宣言する。民主党が票の点検などを求めて訴訟を起こしても最高裁が却下するのではないかというのが、民主党が懸念するシナリオだ。

民主政治の先進国であると誇ってきた米国で、国家元首である大統領が選挙の公正さを疑わせるような発言を繰り返すのはまともではない。バレット氏が投票日前に就任すると、トランプ氏を批判する勢力の抗議行動が暴動に発展し、選挙どころではなくなる事態を想定する向きもある。

超大国に権力の空白が生まれれば、中国などがその隙につけいる動きに出るかもしれない。外国の話と看過できない事態である。
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