Underestimating him, as in the 2016 election, does nothing but benefit Donald Trump
Two weeks before the United States’ presidential election, Donald Trump has started speaking publicly about the prospect of being defeated on Nov. 3. During a rally in Georgia — a crucial state — on Friday night, the president asked his die-hard supporters: “Could you imagine if I lose? My whole life, what am I going to do? I’m going to say, ‘I lost to the worst candidate in the history of politics.’ I’m not going to feel so good. Maybe I’ll have to leave the country. I don’t know.”
As far as is known, spontaneous bursts of honesty are not among the many side effects suffered by those infected with COVID-19. And certainly, Trump has not lost the extraordinary political instincts that distinguish him. He knows perfectly well that the best thing that could happen to him in the final stretch of the campaign is being underestimated again, as in 2016. After a constant dosage of Trumpism for five years, it is clear that the populist leader thrives whenever he feels cornered and whenever he is not taken seriously. That is what his underdog strategy is all about, and he is reviving it in order to secure four more years in the White House and once more disprove every prediction against him.
Trump may be many things, but he is not irrelevant. In essence, he has little, if anything, to do with the American right, with conservatism, the libertarian Tea Party, Barry Goldwater or Ronald Reagan. Nor is he the last defender of the West or a bastion of traditional values. Trump mainly belongs to Trump. That is to say, a compulsive liar who has managed to make himself comfortable among issues that are as real as they are painful. His political career is built on settling the score with the U.S. elites and the frustration of social sectors like white blue-collar workers.
That is why it is striking to see that there are those who insist on echoing Steve Bannon’s fallacies about Trumpism as the unavoidable and revolutionary culmination of a crucial cycle in American history. Bannon is a crook, not Nostradamus.
Lo mejor para Trump
Subestimarle como en las elecciones del 2016 no hace más que beneficiar a Donald Trump
A dos semanas de las presidenciales de Estados Unidos, Donald Trump ha empezado a hablar en público sobre la posibilidad de ser derrotado el 3 de noviembre. Durante un mitin en la decisiva Georgia, el presidente preguntó el viernes por la noche a sus incondicionales: «¿Se imaginan si pierdo? Toda mi vida, ¿qué voy a hacer? Voy a decir: ‘Perdí contra el peor candidato de la historia de la política’. No me voy a sentir nada bien. Tal vez tenga que dejar el país. No lo sé».
Que se sepa, entre los muchos efectos colaterales que sufren los contagiados por Covid-19, no figuran espontáneos arranques de sinceridad. Y por supuesto, Trump no ha perdido su extraordinario olfato político que le caracteriza. Sabe perfectamente que lo mejor que le puede ocurrir en la recta final de la campaña es volver a ser subestimado como en 2016. Tras cinco años de trumpismo en vena, queda claro que el líder populista se crece cuando se siente acorralado y no se le toma en serio. En eso consiste la estrategia de «underdog» que ha resucitado para lograr otros cuatro años en la Casa Blanca y desacreditar otra vez todos los pronósticos en su contra.
Trump puede ser muchas cosas pero no es irrelevante. En esencia, poco o nada tiene nada que ver con la derecha americana, ni el conservadurismo, ni el libertario Tea Party, ni con Barry Goldwater o Ronald Reagan. Tampoco es el último defensor de Occidente ni un baluarte de valores tradicionales. Trump fundamentalmente es de Trump. Es decir, un mentiroso compulsivo que ha sabido apalancarse en problemas tan reales como dolorosos. Su carrera política se cimienta en un ajuste de cuentas contra las élites de EE.UU. y la frustración de sectores sociales como la clase trabajadora blanca.
Por eso, llama la atención todos los que insisten en repetir las falacias propagadas por Steve Bannon sobre el trumpismo como una inevitable y revolucionaria culminación de un ciclo decisivo en la historia americana. Bannon es un estafador no es Nostradamus.
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It wouldn’t have cost Trump anything to show a clear intent to deter in a strategically crucial moment; it wouldn’t even have undermined his efforts in Ukraine.