The Positive Developments for Israel Are Likely To End Under a Biden Administration

An analysis of the positions that Joe Biden and his people announced during the election and afterward shows that it is possible the positive developments for the State of Israel which occurred in the last few years will end. A Democratic administration is likely to decrease pressure on Iran on its path to a new nuclear agreement. From past experience, we learned that the Democrats and the Europeans handle negotiations as “give first, and after that, try to receive.” So we see that Biden might not assign great importance to the strategic pact between Israel and the moderate Arab countries. He may believe the pact is an obstacle to dialogue with Iran.

The United States under Biden will not offer to be a link between Israel and the United Arab Emirates, Sudan or Bahrain. The U.S. will not support the existing agreement by doing such things as selling aircraft to the Emirates or removing Sudan from the list of countries that support terror, etc. Although a strategic pact against Iran would supply the Americans with great arms deals for their weapons manufacturers, the Democratic Party does not necessarily value this enough. Since the pressure on Iran is declining and the creation of alliances with the moderate Arab countries is also slowing down, Congress' policy of “first get along with the Palestinians and then we will support you with the moderate Arab countries” will resurface.

The Biden administration is expected to make it difficult for Israel regarding the implementation of the law for the Jewish residents of Area C and the Jordan Valley. The Palestinian issue will once again be a bone in the throat of the overall peace process in the Middle East. Likewise, the new administration will not accept the obvious fact that, due to the terrorist threat, it cannot demilitarize the area. It will return to the position that two lookout posts on two mountain tops in Yehuda and Shomron are enough to ensure Israel’s safety.

Another danger may develop on the northern front against Iran. When the Americans start negotiating with Iran, the Americans are liable to pressure Israel to stop attacks on Syria. If that happens, it will damage Israel’s security interests at the highest level. Another more long-term issue is that Europe is becoming Islamicized, and the number of Muslims in America and Canada is growing. A connection with the more moderate Sunni Arab countries could have created a bridge to these populations, and could have moderated the polarization between us and the Western world which is becoming Islamicized. The destruction of this connection could cause Israel much meaningful strategic difficulty in Europe and in the United States within 10 years.

In light of all this, I suggest that the prime minister continue to pursue progress in the following areas. First, he should assert pressure and call for political understanding in the halls of power such that the Americans will continue to pressure Iran and support the strategic pact with the moderate Arab countries. You could give U.S. government agencies true power to nullify or violate the Iranian aspect of current treaties. Second, the prime minister should strengthen the direct agreements between Israel and the moderate Arab countries. Third, he should validate the Israeli law regarding the residents of Area C and the Jordan Valley as soon as possible.

To the Israeli government, and most of the people who are with you: Don’t shy away from change, and work decisively to secure the existence of the state of Israel!

The author is a brigadier general in the reserves and a member of the nongovernmental organization, Guardians of Israel.