Once Biden Takes Office, US-China and Taiwan-China Relations Will Never Go Back

Published in UDN
(Taiwan) on 7 December 2020
by Chun-Shan Chao (link to originallink to original)
Translated from by Jennifer Sampson. Edited by Margaret McIntyre.
Chinese and American think tanks have recently held a series of separate and joint seminars on the trajectory of U.S.-China relations following the 2020 presidential election. Because U.S.-China relations also involve cross-strait relations between Taiwan and China, it is worth paying a great deal of attention to Beijing's response to President-elect Joe Biden’s cross-strait policies after he takes office.

Mao Zedong said, “Regarding strategy, despise the enemy; regarding tactics, respect the enemy.” Regarding strategy, Chinese Communist Party leaders appear to have planned ahead and are emphatic that all they have to do is stick to their own agenda. Tactically speaking, however, the CCP cannot ignore the effect that changes in the international environment will have on their strategy. What is obvious is that the COVID-19 pandemic, plus the U.S. election, have forced CCP leaders to take stock of the situation and tactically adjust.

First, the U.S.-China relationship will not return to what it once was. It won’t go back to being a relationship based on mutual respect, benefit and “win-win cooperation” as during Barack Obama’s time in office, and it certainly won’t return to the constructive strategic partnership of the Bill Clinton era. In the past, China and the U.S. used cooperation to define competition; now, they use competition to define cooperation. Although Biden will be a weak president, he will not abandon the “America First’ ideology. Because he is an advocate of multilateralism, he will replace Donald Trump’s method of going at it alone as a wolf pack to restrain the rise of China.

Second, cross-strait relations will not return to what they once were. They won’t return to the “great exchange, cooperation and development” relationship seen during Ma Ying-jeou’s eight years in office, or even to the cold peace of Chen Shui-bian’s tenure. This is because antagonistic public opinion has increased on both sides of the strait, and authorities communicate with each other. Polling has revealed that the percentage of Taiwanese people who advocate for Taiwan’s independence not only exceeds that of those who want unity, but approaches the percentage of people who advocate for maintaining the status quo indefinitely.

In the face of the previously mentioned changes in U.S.-China and cross-strait relations, the CCP will engage in the simultaneous struggles of containment (of China) versus anti-containment and succession (by Taiwan) versus anti-succession. These two struggles are intertwined, and both concern the CCP regime’s authority to govern. They will also affect Taiwan’s survival and development.

Regarding anti-containment, the CCP will use the economy as an instrument to reward and punish, applying differential treatment with respect to U.S. allies. For example, regarding the recent conflict between the CCP and Australia, Jie Chen, associate professor at the University of Western Australia, said that the CCP is making an example of Australia to warn U.S. allies that if it follows along with U.S. diplomacy, the CCP will retaliate. Additionally, making an example of Australia is a warning to the U.S. The CCP is not weak and can destroy the economies of U.S. allies, which should give the U.S. pause when it strengthens an alliance to contain the CCP.

Regarding anti-succession, the CCP will continue to use both strong-arm tactics and gentler methods with Taiwan: economic benefits, diplomatic pressure and military threats. President Tsai Ing-wen stuck to a policy of neither provoking nor rashly getting too close to China, which has caused cross-strait relations during her first presidential term to remain peaceful and stable. However, after the U.S. election, the relationship has not adapted to the rapid changes both within and beyond Taiwan. At the very least, Taiwan will be unable to extricate itself from the middle of the CCP’s two aforementioned struggles.

The current cross-strait situation is grim. The famous novel “Romance of the Three Kingdoms” begins, “The empire, long divided, must unite; long united, must divide.” If this is how cross-strait relations will eventually play out, then finding a way to build mutually beneficial cooperation should achieve positive results and avoid disaster. In a recent article in The China Review, Zhidong Hao, professor emeritus with the sociology department at the University of Macau, pointed out that if China and Taiwan don’t regard the other as enemies, and as long as the fundamental interests of each side are unharmed, they might return to the principles set forth in the Guidelines for National Unification and the 1992 Consensus of “one China, different interpretations.” They could cooperate to build a cosmopolitan, EU-style Chinese confederation that Hao calls a “confederation-style federation.”

Professor Hao’s theory is worth noticing. As it says in “The Art of War,” “Rely not on the likelihood of the enemy’s not coming, but on our own readiness to receive them.” Taiwan cannot pin its hopes for security on the goodwill of others. We must have the ability, and wisdom, to defuse the crisis in the Taiwan Strait. If the other side of the strait chooses negotiation over confrontation while Taiwan chooses to reject China’s “One Country, Two Systems” principle, Taiwan should ask itself, “Have we already researched and planned countermeasures in case we need them?”

The author is an honorary professor from the Tamkang University Graduate Institute of China Studies.


拜登上台:中美與兩岸都回不去了

最近中美兩方智庫人士,均就美國選後的中美關係走向,分別或共同舉辦了系列的研討會。中美關係牽動兩岸關係,北京如何因應拜登上任後的兩岸政策,值得吾人高度關注。

毛澤東說:「戰略上藐視敵人,戰術上重視敵人。」戰略上,中共領導人看似胸有成竹,強調只要按自己的議程辦事就好;但在戰術上,中共又無法忽視外在環境變化對其戰略布局造成的影響。明顯的是,一場新冠肺炎疫情加上美國大選,迫使中共當局必須審時度勢,做出戰術性的調整。

首先,中美關係是回不去了。不會回到歐巴馬任內「相互尊重、互利共贏的合作夥伴」,更遑論回到柯林頓時期的「建設性的戰略夥伴關係」。中美過去是以合作定義競爭,現在則是以競爭定義合作。拜登雖為弱勢總統,但不會揚棄「美國優先」。只是拜登主張多邊主義,故會以「狼群戰術」替代川普的「單打獨鬥」,目標都是遏制「中國崛起」。

其次,兩岸關係也回不去了。不會回到馬政府執政八年的「大交流、大合作、大發展」,甚至回不到陳水扁執政時期的「冷和平」。這是因為兩岸民意對抗升高,兩岸執政當局不相往來。民調顯示,台灣民眾主張「台獨」的比率,不但超過主張「統一」,而且直逼主張「永遠維持現狀」者。

面對上述中美和兩岸關係的變化,中共將同時進行「圍堵和反圍堵」,以及「分裂和反分裂」的鬥爭。這兩場鬥爭彼此相互牽連,都攸關中共政權的統治權力,也都影響台灣的生存與發展。

在「反圍堵」部分,中共將以經濟作為獎懲工具,對美國的盟國實施「區別對待」。以最近中共與澳洲的衝突為例,澳洲西澳大學教授陳傑指出,中共一方面以「殺一儆百」告誡美國的盟友,如在外交上一直尾隨美國,則中共將採報復措施;另一方面則以「殺雞儆猴」告誡美國本身,即中共並不軟弱,可以通過摧毀美國盟友的經濟,使美國在強化遏制中共的聯盟時有所顧慮。

在「反分裂」部分,中共將持續對台伸出「軟硬兩手」:即經濟示惠、外交施壓和軍事威懾。蔡總統強調「不挑釁、不冒進」,固然使兩岸關係在她第一任期內維持相對的和平與穩定,但卻無法因應美國選後台灣內外形勢的急遽變化。至少,台灣無法從中共上述的兩場「鬥爭」中置身事外。

當前兩岸形勢嚴峻,如果「合久必分,分久必合」是兩岸關係的終局發展,則如何建構一個「合則兩利」的模式,應是趨吉避凶之道。澳門大學社會學榮休教授郝志東最近在《中國評論》撰文指出,若兩岸不把對方視為敵人,在雙方基本利益都不受到損害的情況下,或可回歸到《國統綱領》、「九二共識、一中各表」的原則上面來,合作共建一個世界主義的、歐盟式的中華聯邦,即他所說的「邦聯式的聯邦」。

郝教授的說法值得借鏡,所謂「勿恃敵之不來,恃吾有以待之。」台灣安全不能寄希望於他人的善意之上,我們必須有能力、更要有智慧,解除台海危機的引信。如果對岸選擇「談判代替對抗」,則台灣在拒絕對岸所提「一國兩制」模式的同時,應該自問:我們是否已研擬好對策,以備不時之需?(作者為淡江大學大陸所榮譽教授

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