New START Treaty Extension: China’s Participation in Multilateralism

Published in Ryukyu Shimpo
(Japan) on 30 January 2021
by (link to originallink to original)
Translated from by Dorothy Phoenix. Edited by Michelle Bisson.
In the first phone call between U.S. President Joe Biden and Russian President Vladimir Putin, the leaders were able to secure a five-year extension for the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty, which was due to expire on Feb. 5. The treaty, which is the only remaining legal framework between the two countries regarding nuclear disarmament, is seen as a compromise to prevent the world from slipping back into the arms race of the Cold War.

But under former president Donald Trump's administration, nuclear disarmament as a whole trended backward. In order to reconstruct a new framework for regulations on nuclear development for the countries with nuclear weapons, building trust between the countries must deepen. China's participation in nuclear disarmament talks is particularly essential, so instead of remaining between just the U.S. and Russia, the New START agreement must become multilateral.

The pillar of the New START is reduction in the number of deployed strategic nuclear warheads in Russia and the U.S. to fewer than 1,550, a goal that both countries have already achieved. However, last year, the Trump administration rejected Putin's call to extend the agreement "without any preconditions."

As a condition for the extension, the U.S. wanted a public declaration of the number of tactical nuclear weapons each country possesses, restrictions on the quantity of weapons and agreement on a framework that includes China's participation in disarmament discussions, but Russia was not responsive, and the discussions were difficult.

Because of the U.S. change in administration, the treaty expiration was barely avoided. The new Biden administration touts its intentions to move toward "a world without nuclear weapons." But it is difficult to envision a path forward to nuclear curtailment for the U.S. and Russia, which account for 90% of the world's nuclear weapons.

In addition to canceling the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty between Russia and the U.S. in 2018, there are plans to build up tactical weapons that are not subject to the New START agreement. Upon the INF treaty's expiration, the U.S. steered back toward resuming the development of intermediate-range weapons. Increasingly, the viewpoint is that the U.S. will deploy its newly developed missiles, capable of bearing nuclear warheads, to Japan and especially to the Nansei islands, as a frontline against China. Okinawa must absolutely not be dragged into a missile war.

Had the New START lapsed, not only would an arms race between superpowers have become unavoidable, but there would also have been backlash from non-signatory countries, as well as a negative influence on North Korea's denuclearization. The hopes for an extension of New START were just barely preserved.

On the other hand, outside of the U.S. and Russia, which are linked by the treaty, China is building up its nuclear forces, centered around intermediate-range ballistic missiles, leading to mutual distrust and an arms race. Negotiations with China are essential, but even under the Biden administration, improvement of the deteriorating U.S.-China relationship does not seem likely. If China is aware of its power as a large nation, it ought to proactively join in on establishing a framework for nuclear disarmament discussions.

On January 22, the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons came into effect, completely banning the development, possession and use of nuclear weapons. Nations that possess nuclear weapons and other nations, such as Japan, that fall under the "nuclear umbrella" have not yet ratified it, but there is a growing recognition that nuclear weapons violate international law.

The "Doomsday Clock," which likens the time until the day of Earth's destruction due to nuclear war to midnight, is, at "100 seconds," the shortest ever. We would like to hasten the trend of international cooperation toward nuclear disarmament and the elimination of nuclear weapons.


新START延長 多国間化へ中国も参加を

米国のバイデン大統領とロシアのプーチン大統領が初の電話会談で、2月5日の期限切れが迫っていた米ロの新戦略兵器削減条約(新START)の5年延長で合意した。

 両国間に唯一残った核軍縮の法的枠組みを維持したことは、冷戦期の軍拡競争に世界を逆戻りさせないための歩み寄りとして評価したい。

 しかし、トランプ前政権下で核軍縮の流れは全体としては後退している。保有国の核開発を規制する新たな枠組みを再構築するため、国家間の信頼醸成を深めていかなければならない。特に中国の核軍縮交渉参加は不可欠で、新STARTも米ロ2カ国にとどまらない多国間化が必要だ。

 新STARTは、米ロで配備する戦略核弾頭数を1550発以下に削減することが柱で、両国は既に達成している。だがトランプ前政権は昨年、プーチン大統領が呼び掛けた「無条件の延長」を拒否した。

 延長の条件として、ロシア戦術核の数量公表と制限、核軍縮交渉への中国の参加などを盛り込んだ枠組み合意を求めたが、ロシアは応じず、協議は難航していた。

 米国の政権交代によって、かろうじて失効を回避した。バイデン新政権は「核兵器なき世界」を掲げる。だが世界の9割を占める米ロの核兵器削減の道筋は見えていない。

 米ロ間で18年に中距離核戦力(INF)廃棄条約が破棄されたほか、新STARTの対象とはならない戦術核の増強を図っている。

 米国はINF廃棄条約の失効により、中距離ミサイルの開発再開にかじを切った。新たに開発する核弾頭搭載可能なミサイルを、対中国の前線として日本に、中でも南西諸島に配備させる見方が強まっている。沖縄がミサイル戦争に巻き込まれることは断じて許してはいけない。

 新STARTが失効すれば、大国間の軍拡だけでなく非保有国の反発も避けられず、北朝鮮の非核化などにも負の影響は避けられなかった。新STARTの延長はぎりぎりで望みをつないだ。

 一方、条約で縛られる米ロをよそに、中国は中距離弾道ミサイルを中心に核戦力を増強させ、相互不信と軍拡競争を招いている。中国との協議は不可欠であるが、悪化した米中関係はバイデン政権になっても改善が見通せない。中国は大国を自覚するならば、核軍縮交渉の枠組みづくりに積極的に加わるべきだ。

 22日には、核兵器の開発や保有、使用を全面的に禁じた核禁止条約が発効した。核保有国や、日本など保有国の「核の傘」の下にある国々は批准していないとはいえ、核兵器は国際法違反だという認識が広がっている。

 核戦争などによる地球滅亡の日を深夜0時に見立てた「終末時計」は、過去最短の「100秒」である。核軍縮・廃絶に向けた国際協調の機運を、より大きなものへと高めていきたい。
This post appeared on the front page as a direct link to the original article with the above link .

Hot this week

Taiwan: The Beginning of a Post-Hegemonic Era: A New Normal for International Relations

Russia: This Can’t Go On Forever*

Australia: America’s Economic and Political Chaos Has Implications for Australia

Topics

Mexico: Migration: A Political Crisis?

Poland: Los Angeles Riots: Battle for America’s Future

Germany: Donald Trump Is Damaging the US

Canada: President Trump, the G7 and Canada’s New ‘Realistic’ Foreign Policy

Taiwan: The Beginning of a Post-Hegemonic Era: A New Normal for International Relations

Canada: Trump vs. Musk, the Emperor and the Oligarch

Russia: Trump Is Shielding America*

Germany: Peace Report 2025: No Common Ground with Trump

Related Articles

Hong Kong: Amid US Democracy’s Moral Unraveling, Hong Kong’s Role in the Soft Power Struggle

Russia: Trump Is Shielding America*

Hong Kong: The Lessons of World War II: The Real World Importance of Resisting Hegemony

Japan: Trump’s 100 Days: A Future with No Visible Change So Far