Unable To Break with Trumpism: Too Few Republicans Join Impeachment Revolt

Published in Nihon Keizai Shimbun (Nikkei)
(Japan) on 15 February 2021
by Mikio Sugeno (link to originallink to original)
Translated from by Eric Stimson. Edited by Michelle Bisson.
The occupation of Congress on Jan. 6 was a dark day in the history of American democracy. The impeachment trial of former President Donald Trump for inciting the mob ended in acquittal. The Republican Party is at loose ends, but it cannot make a decisive break with Trumpism. A resolution of the deep divides within American society remains far off.

The Senate trial, which took place where the ghastly incident occurred a month before, ended in only five days in order to focus on emergency measures like COVID-19 relief. Impeachment conviction requires two-thirds approval in the Senate. The hurdle was high, since the Democratic and Republican Parties each have 50 votes. So it is no surprise that Trump was acquitted for a second time, after the first impeachment in 2020 for the Ukraine scandal.

What is important is what this trial means for the future of American democracy.

First, there is a strong possibility that Trump will return to the political stage in the 2024 election with momentum from the acquittal. Even with an atrocity committed by right-leaning extremists who were driven by support for Trump, the former president’s unshakeable hold on the Republican Party was reaffirmed. Only seven “rebel” Republicans voted to convict, 10 short of the number of Republicans needed for an impeachment conviction.

“In the months ahead, I have much to share with you, and I look forward to continuing our incredible journey together to achieve American greatness for all of our people.” Trump issued this statement on Feb. 13; his Twitter megaphone has been taken away, and his ability to communicate has fallen sharply.

Although he was defeated by Democratic President Joe Biden, Trump garnered over 74 million votes in the presidential election. More than 80% of Republicans support his acquittal. Their support of Trumpism, which seized its adherents’ hearts through distinguishing enemies from allies and inciting division, remains undiminished. “Yet another phase in the greatest witch hunt in the history of our Country,” Trump said in a statement after his acquittal. His way of criticizing Democrats remains unchanged.

Trump did not recognize the election results and rejected a smooth transfer of power to the Biden administration until the last minute. If he gains momentum again, the wound to American democracy will probably grow a little bigger.

On the other hand, there were developments that cannot be ignored. There was a backlash from mainstream Republicans against Trump for not accepting democratic rules and not trying to stop the mob.

At 2:12 p.m. on the day that Congress was occupied, Vice President Mike Pence started to evacuate with his family and aides. They barely escaped members of the mob shouting, “Hang Mike Pence!” At 2:24 p.m., Trump tweeted that Pence “didn’t have the courage.”

Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, head of the Republicans in the Senate, harshly criticized Trump immediately after the acquittal verdict. “He watched television happily — happily — as the chaos unfolded. … Even after it was clear to any reasonable observer that Vice President Pence was in serious danger, even as the mob carrying Trump banners was beating cops … the president sent a further tweet attacking his own vice president.” His words that Trump “bears responsibility for inciting lawlessness and violence” could come out of the Democrats’ prosecution documents.*

McConnell supported acquittal based on the constitutional argument that a president who had already left office cannot be impeached. The opportunity to draw a line against Trump, whose actions shook the ideals of democracy, is emerging even within the Republican Party. But for now, they are only talking behind his back.

A Republican Party unable to break with Trump contains a great degree of instability. This is because, going forward, it is necessary to keep an eye on Trump supporters. The next presidential election in four years time could lead to a turn, with the Republican Party paying the price.

Biden supports the healing of America’s divisions. Yet in actuality, he is rapidly reversing the Trump administration’s policies, which is strengthening Republican backlash.

How can American democracy be restored? Both parties have the will to act, but the partisan divide is too severe. I cannot see a departure from the politics of division that Trump has deepened.

*Editor’s Note: This quote, though accurately translated, cannot be verified.
*Editor’s Note: The original language publication of this article is accessible with a paid subscription.


米国の民主主義に暗黒の歴史を刻んだ1月6日の連邦議会占拠事件。暴徒を扇動した罪を問うトランプ前大統領の弾劾裁判は早々と無罪評決を下した。野党・共和党には迷いもあるが、頑健な「トランプ主義」との決別はできない。米社会の深刻な分断の解消はなお遠い。

1カ月前に凄惨な事件の現場となった米議会上院での実質審理は、新型コロナウイルス対策など緊急課題への配慮から、わずか5日間で終わった。弾劾は上院で3分の2を超す賛成を要する。50対50で与野党の議席が拮抗するなか、ハードルは高かった。2020年のウクライナ疑惑に続くトランプ氏の2度目の無罪に驚きはない。

重要なのは、この裁判が米国の民主主義の将来にもたらす余波だ。

まず、トランプ氏は無罪を弾みに、24年の大統領選挙もにらんで政治の表舞台に戻る可能性が高い。トランプ支持を名乗る極右勢力の蛮行があっても、前大統領が共和党内で揺るぎない影響力を握ることが再確認された。共和党議員で有罪を支持した「造反」は7人にとどまり、弾劾の成立には10人不足した。

「これから皆さんにたくさんお伝えすることがある。全ての人に米国の偉大さを達成するための素晴らしい旅をご一緒するのが楽しみだ」。ツイッターというメガホンを奪われ、発信機会が激減していたトランプ氏は13日の声明でこう語った。

民主党のバイデン大統領に敗れたとはいえ、7400万を超す票を大統領選で獲得したトランプ氏。共和党支持者の8割以上はトランプ氏の無罪を支持する。敵と味方を区別し、分断をあおることで支持者の心をつかんだトランプ流への共感は衰えない。「米史上最大の魔女狩りの新たな段階」と民主党を非難する手法は不変だ。

選挙結果を認めず、バイデン氏への円滑な政権移行もぎりぎりまで拒否したトランプ氏が再び勢いづけば、米民主主義の傷口は一段と広がりかねない。

一方で無視できない動きもあった。民主主義のルールを受け入れず暴徒を止めようとしなかったトランプ氏に対する、共和党主流派からの拒否反応だ。

ペンス副大統領は議会占拠事件当日の午後2時12分、家族や側近と避難を開始。「ペンスを処刑しろ」と連呼する暴徒の攻撃を辛うじて免れた。トランプ氏はその後も2時24分に「ペンス氏は勇気がない」と非難するツイートをした。

共和党上院トップのマコネル院内総務は無罪確定の直後、トランプ氏を強烈に非難した。「彼(前大統領)はテレビで混乱を楽しそうに見ていた。ペンス氏が深刻な危機に直面しても、トランプの横断幕を持つ暴徒が警官を殴打していても、自分の副大統領をツイートで攻撃していた」。トランプ氏に「無法と暴力をあおった責任がある」という言葉は、民主党の訴追文を読むかのようだ。

マコネル氏が無罪を支持したのは、すでに退任した大統領は弾劾できないという憲法判断による。民主主義の理念を揺るがす行動に出たトランプ氏と一線を画す機運は共和党内にも芽生える。だが、現時点では「遠ぼえ」の域を出ない。

トランプ主義と決別できなかった共和党は大きな不安要素を抱えた。今後もトランプ支持者に目配りし続ける必要が生じたからだ。4年後の次期大統領選でそのツケが回ってきかねない。

バイデン大統領は米国の分断の修復を掲げる。だが実際には矢継ぎ早にトランプ政権の政策の転換を打ち出し、共和党の反発を強めている。

米国の民主主義をいかに立て直すか。与野党ともその意識はあるが、党派間の隔たりは激しい。トランプ氏が深めた「分断の政治」の出口はみえない。
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