The Biden Administration, Europe and the Regional Rivals of Iran

During the U.S. presidential election, Iran announced its official stance was that the U.S. election, whoever the winner, was a domestic issue and actions are what matter to Iran. But the Iranian government, and even the people, still envisioned that Donald Trump’s opponent would return the U.S. to the nuclear agreement, thereby removing one of the barriers to improving the economy and quality of life in Iran. Joe Biden, the Democratic nominee for president, had announced America's return to the nuclear deal, known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, as one of his official campaign promises. In the past decade or two, Democrats have shown fewer aggressive tendencies than Republicans, though we still must not forget that the Iran issue in the U.S. is linked to numerous other factors. However, just the fact that trade with other nations could face fewer hurdles was enough to transform the potential threat into a sort of opportunity.

At that point, this writer reminded readers that even if Biden did win and chose to fulfill his promise of returning to the JCPOA, he would certainly set conditions for Iran. The United States' return to the deal would not occur overnight with a simple presidential statement. Although Biden spoke of a stricter policy toward Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, and even suspended weapons sales to them, he nonetheless knows that these two U.S. partners in the Middle East believe a U.S. return to the JCPOA would reduce the pressure that Trump’s sanctions brought on Iran, and would consequently increase Iran’s power and influence in the region. Biden’s America will be stricter with Saudi Arabia, but this strictness does not mean a severing of the strategic relationship between Riyadh and Washington. Despite this, Biden had a very strong reaction to the Khashoggi incident and even held the current Saudi crown prince responsible for it. It is likely he will increase the pressure on Riyadh from a human rights standpoint.

The Arab nations of the Persian Gulf, under Saudi leadership, knew that the JCPOA aimed to reduce tension between Iran and the West, especially the U.S. They believed that the nuclear deal would lead to the evaporation of pressure against Tehran, the suspension of sanctions and an increase in investment in Iran, while also repairing the hostile relationship between Washington and Tehran after nearly four decades. To prevent this, these nations tried to ensure that the agreement would fail. With Biden’s victory and Trump’s defeat in the election, they now know that the pressure against Iran seen under the Trump years cannot continue. This is particularly true because of Biden, his foreign policy advisers’ support for a return to the agreement and their opposition to the regional approach of countries like Saudi Arabia.

This shift in policy is illustrated by the fact that Biden refrained from speaking with the Israeli prime minister for nearly a month, consulted with America's European partners about interaction with Iran and announced Trump’s "maximum pressure" campaign against Iran as a failure. In any event, attempts by the JCPOA parties to carry out their commitments could allow a renewed foreign investor presence in Tehran and decrease the costs of international trade. The suspension of sanctions, facilitation of trade and an increase in economic cooperation could lead to the growth of Iran’s economic and political power, which worries Iran’s regional rivals.

Of course, the situation is not the same for all of these countries. Turkey’s position on Iran is different from Saudi Arabia’s, since on the one hand, it is also a member of NATO, and on the other, Ankara has in recent years tried to position itself closer to Moscow and Tehran. The rivalry between Ankara and Tehran is not like the rivalry between Saudi Arabia and Iran, because Turkey, in fact, benefits from this rivalry. Additionally, Ankara is not currently on the best of terms with Riyadh, Abu Dhabi and Cairo. Both Saudi Arabia and Israel tried their hardest in the months prior to the U.S. election, and particularly in the last weeks of the Trump administration, to get the U.S. to take steps that would make reducing or even managing tensions between Tehran and Washington impossible, but this attempt was thwarted by Iran’s smart handling of the situation. Now, they will try to steer U.S. regional policy in a direction that benefits them.

However, they face the reality that in the beginning, Trump also tried to compromise with Iran to repair his reputation, to no avail. He intended to use economic pressure to force Iran into negotiations, particularly by trying to extend the weapons embargo against Iran through the U.N. Security Council, but just as was predicted, his plan went nowhere. Similarly, the agreement with North Korea remained unfinished because of actions by the Koreans, meaning that the Trump White House’s diplomatic policy was unsuccessful across the board. Trump's insistence on U.S. individualism caused trouble for the entire international community. For this reason, even the important European countries considered him a problem and welcomed the end of his term, seeing that it would prevent a further schism across the two sides of the Atlantic.

Now, the side that left the JCPOA, meaning the USA, needs to make the right decision regarding its formal commitment under this deal and under U.N. Security Council Resolution 2231, and make respect for international agreements a principle of its diplomatic behavior. According to Iran’s formal position, if the U.S. does this, the stalemate will be broken.