Can Biden Spark Economic Recovery by Throwing Money Around?

Published in UDN
(Taiwan) on 11 April 2021
by Bert J. Lim (link to originallink to original)
Translated from by Jennifer Sampson. Edited by Michelle Bisson.
The big question worldwide is whether President Joe Biden’s stimulus plan can once more return the U.S. to the role of a global economic driver and speed up recovery.

On March 31, Biden proposed a second stimulus package, broadly focused on infrastructure. This plan reflects Biden’s vision and path for comprehensively revitalizing the economy. At the same time, he also announced an increase in the corporate tax rate from 21% to 28%, which would inject funding into his revitalization plan. To those observing from the outside, this plan can be described as printing currency twice as fast so the market can be rescued by throwing money at it.

Before it’s determined whether the new plan can even be implemented, a few issues must be clarified. First, this plan, unprecedented in size, would be implemented in steps that would take a minimum of eight years to complete. Everyone is skeptical about the project’s chances of completion during Biden’s term of office.

In actuality, what Biden announced is only the first part, costing $2.6 trillion — less than the projected $3 or $4 trillion. However, Reuters reported that Biden will announce the second part of the plan toward the end of April, which will add at least another $2 trillion. While Congress may not have problems passing the first part, whether it will completely accept the second part remains unknown.

Second, the grand objective of the new plan is to utilize big government to rebuild a better future for a new American dream. While the plan will focus on pandemic recovery in the short run, hopefully it will fix much criticized long-term problems, such as lagging infrastructure and racial injustice and inequality, as well as addressing issues such as climate change. Moreover, Biden also plans to implement a “one-time capital investment” to increase America’s global competitiveness.

Overall, the policy objectives of the plan’s first part are so complex that it will be difficult to see results quickly.

Third, multinational think tanks believe that the infrastructure spending during the first part of the plan will further raise the federal budget deficit and exacerbate America’s fiscal cliff. In turn, the U.S. may go the way of countries with severe debt crises, such as Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain. In addition, Biden’s plan to raise corporate taxes will further worsen domestic investment and the business environment, resulting in an absence of international investment and the overseas relocation of domestic manufacturers. This will negatively affect the actual growth of economic sectors.

A huge plan such as this will surely spark a new round of political struggles, domestic divides and upheaval, in which case the U.S. will have a difficult time returning to its place as a global leader.


拜登大撒幣 能刺激經濟復甦嗎

美國總統拜登新刺激計畫,能不能再度讓美國扮演世界經濟火車頭,加速全球復甦,是國際頭條大事。

三月卅一日,拜登提出第二套基礎建設一攬子計畫。這個計畫反映拜登全面振興經濟願景和路線。他同時將公司稅率,從廿一%上調至廿八%,挹注振興計畫資金來源。這項計畫外界稱為「兩倍速印鈔救市大撒幣」。

新刺激計畫究竟可不可能落實,有幾個問題須先釐清。第一,規模龐大力度空前的計畫,乃採「分步走策略」,全程必須耗時八年以上,各方懷疑在其任內,無實現的可能。

實際上,拜登宣布的祇是第一部分,規模僅二點六兆美元,低於此前預測的三至四兆美元;不過,路透報導拜登應會在四月下旬提第二部分,至少再加二兆美元。固然,第一部分國會通過不至有罣礙,但第二部分國會能不能全盤接受,尚屬未定之天?

第二,新計畫的宏大目標,是為發揮大政府作用,「重建新美國夢的更美好未來」;既要聚焦於短期內加快從疫情中復甦步伐,也希望借此改變飽受詬病的長期問題,包括:基建設施落後、族群不公不義不平等加劇,及應對氣候變遷等課題。同時,拜登也計畫進行「一次性資本投資」,提高美國全球競爭力。

整體看,即便是第一部分計畫政策目標都嫌龐雜,不易立竿見影。

第三,跨國智庫認為,第一部分基建支出,將進一步推高聯邦預算赤字,惡化美國的「財政斷崖」,美國可能「歐豬五國化」。另外,拜登加徵企業稅做法,將更加惡化國內投資營商條件,導致國際投資不來,本土廠商將業務向海外遷移,對實體經濟部門成長,產生負向影響。

如此龐大計畫,必將引發新一輪政治角力,肇致國內更加撕裂動盪;是則,遑論重返全球領袖地位。

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