US and Taiwan’s Public Opinion War Is No Use against Mainland China

Recently, the U.S. and Taiwan have resorted to a public opinion war centered on the tense situation in the Taiwan Strait. On Sunday, Secretary of State Antony Blinken criticized mainland China for taking "increasingly aggressive actions" against Taiwan, and stated that “it would be a serious mistake for anyone to try to change the existing status quo by force." When asked if the U.S. would respond militarily to mainland Chinese action against Taiwan, he refused to comment on hypothetical questions.

Recently, the U.S. Navy released a photo on its website of the commander of the USS Mustin and his assistant observing a Chinese Liaoning aircraft carrier a few miles away. Taiwanese media particularly focused on the U.S. commander's feet resting on the ship's side rail, claiming the posture demonstrated that the U.S. Navy "doesn't take the People's Liberation Army seriously." This demonstrates the intense level of faith some Taiwanese people have placed in the hands of the U.S. military.

In the past few days, the Taiwanese military and media jointly staged a leak about the existence of a secret radar vehicle that can trace the mainland's Chengdu J-20 fighter aircraft. It is an attempt to use intelligence war tactics to make the mainland believe the island has the ability to counter the J-20. The Taiwanese military also revealed to foreign media that Taiwanese airspace is split into three zones: "monitor," "warn" and "destroy." Mainland military aircraft are prevented from nearing the red line 30 nautical miles from the Taiwanese shoreline, and the island can fire on mainland military aircraft that enter this "destroy" zone.

First of all, mainland China will never accept Blinken's "warning." The status quo in the Taiwan Strait was definitively broken by the Democratic Progressive Party after it came to power in 2016. It abandoned the One China consensus and pushed the region into turmoil. Both the Donald Trump and Joe Biden administrations have allowed the DPP to engage in adventurist policies, breaking the original One China policy framework and changing the status quo in the Taiwan Strait. The Chinese mainland's firm commitment to the One China policy is a countermeasure to this disturbance of the status quo.

China's Anti-Secession Law requires the use of military force to stop any severe separatist actions when necessary. What's certain is that, if Taiwanese authorities, under the tacit consent of the U.S., continue to thinly slice their way toward secession, then the mainland will undoubtedly increase its military pressure on the island. If false signals from the U.S. give the Taiwanese government a false sense of security, and the latter stubbornly sticks to its own way, then a war in the Taiwan Strait is likely to erupt eventually.

It may be that the U.S. is adopting a policy of strategic ambiguity, but if the U.S. openly announces that it will use military force in the Taiwan Strait, mainland China's determination to protect its sovereignty and territorial integrity will not be shaken. Should the situation get out of control and the mainland resolve to use military force to unite Taiwan, we will make ample preparations to counter any possible military interference on the part of the U.S. We have faith that our determination to respond to extreme cross-Strait conflict is far greater than that of the U.S.

The U.S. military has two goals in releasing the photo of the USS Mustin's commander. The first is to highlight the tension in the Western Pacific, and the second is to emphasize the United States' military presence in the region in order to placate and encourage its allies. Looking at the public response in Taiwan, this transparent message seems to have had some effect.

However, off Chinese shores, the U.S. military arrogance that Taiwanese media see in this photo crumbled long ago. The waters around China are no longer a place where the U.S. military can do as it wills. China’s People’s Liberation Army has the capability to substantially suppress any of the U.S. military's impulses in these areas. The U.S. is rather hoping that its allies will rush to the fore and challenge China in the region, and that it can act as a deterring force to maintain this state of affairs. However, both Taiwan and Washington can tell that this tactic is becoming harder and harder to keep up.

The Taiwanese military claims that its defensive “red line” is 30 nautical miles from the island's shores, a laughable claim. Should the Taiwanese authorities engage in further disreputable conduct, the PLA has already made preparations to fly military aircraft over Taiwan to declare its national sovereignty. It is also prepared to thoroughly punish the Taiwan independence movement if the island’s military opens fire when the time comes. What we are saying is this: if the Taiwanese military, under any circumstances, dares to fire the first shot against the PLA, that shot will become the DPP's funeral bell, and will mark the arrival of an era of national unification.

Both the people and the government of the mainland have a powerful love of peace. In the eight years before the DPP took office, the cross-Strait relationship eased up greatly, and we achieved a period of shared and peaceful growth. The DPP pursued extremist policies after it came to power, forfeiting that favorable state of affairs. The Tsai Ing-wen administration is the main culprit behind the destabilization of the Taiwan Strait region.

Up to today, the situation has been growing worse, and there is an increasing risk that a minor accident will set off an all-out war in the Taiwan Strait. The only way to eliminate this risk is for the DPP to change its course, and for the U.S. to abandon its scheme to use Taiwan as a pawn for keeping China in check. If the U.S. and Taiwan choose not to change, and keep trying to play games that overwhelm and exhaust the mainland's willpower, then they will have miscalculated. They must each accept the consequences of a sudden paradigm shift in this uncertain, complex, and risky game.