What Card Is Xi Most Worried about Biden Playing?

Published in UDN
(Taiwan) on 14 May 2021
by Yixin Chen (link to originallink to original)
Translated from by Pinyu Hwang. Edited by Michelle Bisson.
Chinese leader Xi Jinping is not happy with President Joe Biden playing the "Iran card," nor is he pleased with the "North Korea card," not to mention the "Taiwan card." But right now he is most concerned about Biden playing the "Russia card."

The reason? First, Xi does not care that Biden is playing the "Iran card" because Beijing and Tehran are hard-core allies, and China has only recently signed a 50-year deal to buy crude oil from Iran.

Second, Xi is not afraid of Biden playing the "North Korea card" because not only does Pyongyang rely heavily on Beijing's economic assistance, but North Korea's nuclear and missile development have also been supported to a certain extent by mainland China.

Third, although Xi is not happy with Biden playing the "Taiwan card," Beijing is reassured by the fact that Biden's play of the "Taiwan card" is still within control, not violating the "One-China policy," and that Biden has not publicly stated that the U.S. is returning to strategic ambiguity.

Fourth, Russia is the most important country in the 16-nation alliance* led by mainland China. Once relations between Moscow and Washington improve, giving a higher position for Russia between the U.S. and China than it currently occupies, China may have to pay a very high price to keep Russia in the Beijing-dominated alliance.

Fifth, Russia has always considered itself a Western or European nation that is similar to the West or Europe in terms of history, culture, civilization, human development, music, art and religion — and far from being like China.

Sixth, the collapse of the Soviet Union and the disintegration of the Communist Party in 1991 became the most important event of the 20th century. This alone is a striking difference between Russia and mainland China.

Seventh, not only has Russia abandoned communism, but more importantly, it has universal suffrage and a democratically elected president chosen by universal suffrage. Although Russia now has elections, the United States and other democracies do not consider Russia to be a democracy.

Last, Russia is indeed not yet a truly democratic nation. Interestingly, during the recent U.N. meeting of foreign ministers, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov was dismissive toward Biden's proposed "Democracy Summit," and criticized the U.S. for holding a Democracy Summit that would only cause a split in multilateralism. In actuality, Lavrov's intention was likely to get Russian President Vladimir Putin invited to participate in the summit.

If President Biden can make a big breakthrough and make an exception to invite Putin to the Democracy Summit, it may not only subtly influence the Kremlin to promote real democratization, but would also change the current strategic triangle among the U.S., Russia and China.

*Editor’s Note: The Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership is a 16-nation trade pact that includes the Association of Southeast Asian Nations along with China, Australia, India, Japan, South Korea and New Zealand.


中國領導人習近平不高興美國總統拜登打「伊朗牌」,也不樂見他打「北韓牌」,更不喜歡他打「台灣牌」,但現在卻最擔心他打「俄羅斯牌」。

原因何在?首先,習近平不在乎拜登打「伊朗牌」,因爲北京與德黑蘭是鐵桿盟友的關係,前不久才簽了一項為期50年向伊朗採購原油的協議。

其次,習近平也不怕拜登打「北韓牌」,因為不僅平壤高度仰賴北京的經濟援助,北韓的核武與飛彈發展也得到中國大陸一定程度的支持。

第三,雖然習近平很不樂見拜登打「台灣牌」,但由於拜登打「台灣牌」還在可控範圍內、迄未違反「一中政策」並公開聲明回到「戰略模糊」,都讓北京感到放心。

第四, 俄羅斯是中國大陸主導的16國聯盟中最重要的國家。一旦莫斯科與華府改善關係,讓俄羅斯在美、中之間取得較目前更高的地位,中國為讓俄羅斯留在北京主導的聯盟之內,可能不知道要付出多少代價。

第五,俄羅斯一直以西方或歐洲國家自居,無論從歷史、文化、文明、人文發展、音樂、藝術、宗教都與西方或歐洲相近,而與中國相遠。

第六,1991年蘇聯崩解,共產黨解體,成為20世紀最重要的事件。光是這一點,俄羅斯就與中國大陸大相徑庭。

第七,不僅俄羅斯揚棄共產主義,更重要的是,俄羅斯還有普選以及透過普選產生的民選總統。雖然俄羅斯有普選,但美國與其他民主國家都不認為俄羅斯是民主政體。

最後,俄羅斯的確還談不上是一個民主國家。有意思的是,最近聯合國外長會議期間,俄羅斯外長拉夫羅夫對拜登倡議的「民主峰會」不以為然,批評美國舉行「民主峰會」將會造成多邊主義的分裂。其實,拉夫羅夫的本意應是希望俄羅斯總統普亭能夠獲邀參加。

拜登總統如能大破大立,破格邀請普亭參加「民主峰會」,不僅可能讓克里姆林宮潛移默化,推動真正的民主化,也可改變目前美、俄、中的戰略三角格局。
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