Biden’s Budget Proposal Will Test the Concept of ‘Big Government’

Published in Mainichi Shimbun
(Japan) on 4 June 2021
by (link to originallink to original)
Translated from by Joseph Santiago. Edited by Gillian Palmer.
With increased public spending aimed at helping America recover from COVID-19, it’s make-or-break time for the idea of “big government.”

President Joe Biden has released his first budget proposal since taking office, which would cover fiscal year 2022 starting this October. Government spending would increase to three times what it was pre-pandemic, reaching an unprecedented $6 trillion over 10 years. Since the Reagan administration of the 1980s, the low taxes and laissez faire policies of “small government” have been the standard. The Trump administration was a perfect example of this practice, favoring large tax cuts for corporations and the wealthy.

This budget proposal, though, is a complete reversal of America’s economic policies. The reason for this shift is to mend the economic gaps that have worsened in America. Low-income earners neglected by the Trump administration have borne the brunt of the pandemic, many of them losing their jobs. As such, they've spent less, striking an immediate blow to the economy.

This is why employment assistance and child care assistance must be strengthened for the middle class, in addition to redistributing wealth by raising taxes on the rich and corporations. If the economy is healed, we can look forward to more balanced growth that will also work in favor of international economies. For example, Japan is currently dealing with low consumption, but if exports to the United States were to increase, economic recovery would become that much easier.

Caution must be taken, though, to avoid overstimulating America’s economy. With the rapid progress made on vaccinations, the standard of economic growth will soon reach 6%. Pork barrel politics has also become a worry in regard to next year’s midterm elections. Overstimulation can very well lead to inflation. Through quantitative easing, stock prices and the economy are staying alive, but inflation would cause a credit crisis. A sudden drop in stocks would shake the world economy.

Public finance would also suffer. Even if taxes are raised, if this huge amount of spending can’t be covered, the government will continue running a deficit of over $1 trillion a year, giving America the largest national debt in its history. Uncertainty, interest rates and debts will rise as faith in the dollar will fall, causing chaos in numerous economies.

The U.S. budget will soon be brought up for debate in Congress. With the Republican Party’s aversion to raising taxes, though, America’s reliance on loans may strengthen. A superpower’s actions can shape the world. America must keep this in mind and strive for policies that account for the risks that come with its position.


米新政権の予算教書 「大きな政府」が試される

巨額の財政出動で新型コロナウイルス禍からの再生を図る「大きな政府」の成否が試される。

 バイデン米大統領は、政権発足後、初の予算教書を発表した。今年10月から始まる新年度の予算編成方針である。

 歳出をコロナ前より3割も増やし、過去最大の約660兆円とする。積極財政は今後10年続ける。

 1980年代のレーガン元政権以来、減税や規制緩和を柱とした「小さな政府」が主流となってきた。トランプ前政権も大型減税で富裕層や大企業を優遇した。

教書は、米国の経済政策を大きく転換するものだ。

 目的は、深刻化した格差の是正である。前政権で取り残された低所得者はコロナ禍に直撃され、相次いで職を失った。消費が冷え込み、景気が一気に悪化した。

 このため、中・低所得者向けの雇用対策や子育て支援を充実させる。富裕層や大企業には増税を実施し、所得再分配を進める。

経済が底上げされると、安定した成長が見込める。世界の景気にもプラスに働く。日本は消費が低迷しているが、米国向けの輸出が増えれば、経済が下支えされる。

 気がかりなのは、米国の景気を過熱させる恐れがあることだ。

 ワクチン接種の進展で成長率は既に6%と高い水準にある。来年の議会中間選挙をにらんだ「ばらまき予算」との指摘もある。景気を過度に刺激すると、インフレを起こしかねない。

今は金融緩和で景気や株価を支えているが、インフレになってしまえば、金融引き締めを余儀なくされる。米国の株価が急落すると世界に動揺が広がる。

 財政の悪化も心配だ。増税しても巨額の歳出は賄えず、年100兆円超の赤字が続く。借金残高は過去最悪の水準になる見通しだ。

財政の先行きに不安が広がって金利が跳ね上がると、借金がさらに膨らみドルの信用が低下する。世界で使われるドルの価値が急落すれば、各国の経済が混乱する。

 米国の予算は、教書をたたき台にして議会が策定する。ただ与野党には増税反対論が根強く、借金頼みがさらに強まりかねない。

 超大国の政策は世界を左右する。責任を自覚し、リスクに目配りした財政運営に努めるべきだ。
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