Proceed to a US-Russia Nuclear Disarmament Based on the Summit Agreement

Published in Nishinippon Shimbun
(Japan) on 25 June 2021
by (link to originallink to original)
Translated from by T Kagata. Edited by Elizabeth Cosgriff.
The two nuclear powers, which are said to have the worst relationship since the end of the Cold War, have confirmed that they will hold a dialogue on arms control. They should use this opportunity as a stepping-stone to restore a stable relationship.

U.S. President Joe Biden and Russian President Vladimir Putin met for the first time as leaders and agreed to begin a Strategic Stability Dialogue to discuss nuclear disarmament and risk reduction measures. While disagreeing fiercely over human rights issues and cyberattacks, they explored areas where they could possibly cooperate and halt the deterioration of their relationship.

The joint statement read, “Nuclear war cannot be won and must never be fought.” This is the principle set out in 1985 at a meeting between then-U.S. President Ronald Reagan and General Secretary of the Communist Party of the Soviet Union Mikhail Gorbachev. The U.S. and the Soviet Union then proceeded with arms control negotiations, which led to the end of the Cold War four years later. It is significant that the leaders of the U.S. and Russia reaffirmed this principle in Geneva, which had been the setting for the historic meeting.

In February, the U.S. and Russia extended the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty, the only agreement on nuclear disarmament, by five years. The strategic stability dialogue will be centered around the implementation of this treaty.

The two countries, which possess 90% of the world’s nuclear warheads, have a responsibility to take the lead in nuclear disarmament. According to an estimate by the Nagasaki University Center for Nuclear Weapons Abolition Research, the total number of warheads has decreased due to the disposal of aging warheads, but the number of warheads already deployed or in reserve in Russia has increased since last year. In recent years, both countries have been improving the performance of their weapons, and the reality is that the nuclear arms race is starting up again.

We should take the current situation seriously, in which the stagnation of nuclear disarmament threatens the security of the world. It has allowed China to rapidly expand its nuclear arsenal, and North Korea to increase its nuclear capability. The U.K., which has been steadily reducing its nuclear warheads, announced its new nuclear strategy in March of this year and raised its limit on the number of warheads it possesses because of the growing threat.

The agreement between the U.S. and Russian leaders is only a starting point. It is necessary to take steps to reduce the number of weapons, including those that are not covered by the New START, and to have the conceptual ability to reduce the risk of the use of nuclear weapons in the world while drawing in China as well.

Although it will be difficult to achieve, there are many lessons to be learned from the time when leaders shared the same understanding of the nuclear threat and ended the Cold War.

During the summit, the points of conflict also became clear. Putin responded to the claim that Russia was responsible for cyberattacks on U.S. government agencies by saying that more cyberattacks originate in the U.S. He turned a deaf ear to criticism of the crackdown on dissident leaders.

It is hard to predict whether or not their relationship can be restored. The role of the U.S. and Russia is important not only for nuclear disarmament but also for solving global issues such as infectious diseases and global warming. The two leaders should exercise their leadership in advancing nuclear disarmament while keeping an eye on global stability.




米ロの核軍縮 首脳合意を土台に進めよ
2021/6/25 6:00

 冷戦後最悪の関係といわれる核大国同士が軍備管理について対話することを確認した。これを足掛かりに、安定した関係を取り戻してほしい。
 米国のバイデン大統領とロシアのプーチン大統領が首脳として初めて会い、核軍縮やリスク軽減措置を話し合う「戦略的安定対話」の開始で合意した。人権問題やサイバー攻撃を巡って激しく対立しながらも、協力可能な分野を探り、関係の悪化に歯止めをかけた。
 共同声明では「核戦争に勝者はなく、決して行われてはならない」と約束した。これは1985年に当時のレーガン米大統領とソ連のゴルバチョフ共産党書記長の会談で打ち出した原則である。その後、米ソは軍備管理交渉を進め、4年後の冷戦終結をもたらした。その歴史的会談の舞台となったジュネーブで今回、米ロ首脳が再び、この原則を確認した意義は大きい。
 米ロ両国は今年2月、核軍縮に関する唯一の取り決めである新戦略兵器削減条約(新START)を5年延長した。戦略的安定対話は、この条約の扱いを軸に進めることになる。
 世界の核弾頭の9割を所有する両国には率先して核軍縮に取り組む責任がある。長崎大核兵器廃絶研究センターの推計では老朽化などによる廃棄で総数は減ったが、ロシアで配備済みや予備の核弾頭が昨年より増えたという。近年は双方とも兵器の高性能化を進めており、実態は核軍拡競争が再燃している。
 核軍縮の停滞が世界の安全を脅かしている現況を深刻に捉えるべきだろう。中国の著しい核軍拡や北朝鮮の核戦力増強を許す結果を招いた。これまで着実に核弾頭を削減してきた英国も今年3月に発表した新たな核戦略で、脅威の増大を理由に保有数の上限引き上げに転じた。
 米ロ首脳の合意は出発点にすぎない。新STARTの対象外となる兵器も含めた削減に踏み出し、中国まで引き込みながら世界の核使用リスクを低減させる構想力が求められる。
 実現は難航するだろうが、首脳同士が核の脅威に対する認識を共有し、冷戦終結を実現させた歴史に学ぶ点は多いだろう。
 首脳会談では対立点も鮮明になった。プーチン氏は米政府機関へのサイバー攻撃でロシアの責任を問う指摘に、サイバー攻撃は米国発が多いと反発した。反体制派指導者に対する弾圧への批判には耳も貸さなかった。
 関係修復は予断を許さない。核軍縮のみならず感染症や温暖化など地球規模の課題解決にも米ロの役割は重要だ。両首脳には世界の安定を見据えながら、核軍縮を前進させる指導力を発揮してもらいたい。
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