Chaos in Afghanistan: Fear of a Chain of Retaliation

Published in Kyoto Shinbun
(Japan) on 31 August 2021
by (link to originallink to original)
Translated from by Dani Long. Edited by Gillian Palmer.
Confusion in Afghanistan is widespread as U.S. troops are set to fully withdraw.

It is reported that, in retaliation for the suicide bombings near Kabul airport, U.S. military forces bombed Islamic State-Khorasan, resulting in civilian casualties. This “chain of retaliation” makes it difficult to bring the situation under control.

The suicide bombings by the Islamic State group’s Afghanistan and Pakistan arm killed 13 U.S. service members and about 170 Afghans gathered at the airport in hopes of leaving the country. Many more were wounded.

This is a despicable act of terrorism that took advantage of the confusion surrounding the collapse of the Afghanistan government and the withdrawal of U.S. troops and cannot be tolerated. On the other hand, the United States should also be held accountable for dismissing the threat of terrorism and hastily removing troops.

Twenty years have passed since the 9/11 terrorist attacks on the U.S.; Afghanistan is once again in the midst of chaos with no end in sight.

The Islamic State group views the Taliban, the Islamic organization that seized power in Afghanistan, as “renegades” and American and European powers as “Crusades.” It seems that their goal was to make their presence known by carrying out terrorist attacks while the world was focused on the withdrawal of U.S. troops.

In response, President Joe Biden proclaimed that he will continue counterterrorism operations and, addressing the perpetrators of the attack, said, "we will hunt you down and make you pay."

However, because troops have been withdrawn, intelligence on the actual location of Islamic State-Khorasan is scarce and it is doubtful if search and destroy operations can continue.

The U.S. and Great Britain have stated that evacuation efforts will continue for the many remaining people who hope to leave Afghanistan.

The U.S. Department of State said in a joint statement with more than 90 countries, including Japan, that the Taliban has guaranteed that all foreigners and Afghan people with travel permits can move abroad.

But as the possibility of another terrorist attack increases, it is uncertain whether the necessary safety around Kabul and the airport can be ensured. Every country’s activities in Afghanistan, including Japan’s, are likely to be terminated.

The Taliban will effectively maintain domestic security after the withdrawal of the U.S. military, but some U.S. experts have pointed out that "Islamic State-Khorasan cannot be controlled without the cooperation of the U.S. military."* It is feared that harsh Islamic policies such as restrictions on women's education and employment will be reinstated from the previous terrorist administration.

Afghanistan should not be a hotbed of terrorism. The international community must unite and respond.



米軍の駐留がきょう撤退期限を迎えるアフガニスタンで混乱が拡大している。

 首都カブールの空港付近で起きた自爆テロの報復として米軍が過激派組織「イスラム国」(IS)勢力の「ISホラサン州」に対する空爆を行い、市民に犠牲が出たと報じられた。

 「報復の連鎖」が事態の収拾を困難にしている。

 ISホラサン州による自爆テロでは米兵13人のほか、出国を希望して空港に集まっていたアフガン人約170人が亡くなり、多数が負傷した。

 テロはアフガン政権の崩壊と駐留米軍の撤収という混乱に乗じた卑劣な行為であり、断じて許されない。一方でテロの脅威を軽視し、軍の撤収を拙速に進めた米国の責任も問われよう。

米中枢同時テロ後の米軍の攻撃から20年の駐留を経て、アフガンは再び出口の見えない混迷の中にある。

ISホラサン州は、アフガンの実権を握ったイスラム主義組織タリバンを「背教者」、欧米を「十字軍」としてそれぞれ敵視していた。米軍撤退で世界が注目する中でテロを実行し、自らの存在感を示す狙いがあったとみられる。

 これに対し、バイデン米大統領は「凶悪な攻撃に関与した人物を追い詰め、代償を払わせる」として対テロ作戦を継続すると宣言している。

 ただ、地上部隊が撤退し、現地の情報が乏しくなる状況で掃討作戦を続けられるのかは疑問だ。

 現地には出国を望む人たちがまだ多く残っており、米英は退避作戦の継続を明言する。

 米国務省は、日本など90カ国以上が名を連ねる共同声明で、全ての外国人と渡航許可を持つアフガン人が国外に移動できる保証をタリバンから得たとしている。

 だが、現地で再びテロが起きる可能性が高まる中、退避活動の前提となるカブールや空港周辺の安全が確保できるのかは見通せていない。日本を含む各国の活動も終了を余儀なくされそうだ。

 米軍撤収後の国内の治安維持は事実上、タリバンが担うとみられるが、「米軍の協力なしにISホラサン州を制圧できない」と指摘する米専門家もいる。旧政権時代のようにイスラム法を厳しく解釈し、女性の教育や就労などを制限する恐怖政治の復活も危惧されている。

 アフガンをテロの温床にしてはならない。国際社会は結束して対応する必要がある。
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