Renaming Office of Representative Will Divert Attention from Biden-Xi Hotline

Published in UDN
(Taiwan) on 12 September 2021
by Yang-Ming Sun (link to originallink to original)
Translated from by Pinyu Hwang. Edited by Gillian Palmer.
Just one day after President Joe Biden spoke with Chinese President Xi Jinping, the Financial Times reported that the Biden administration was considering allowing the Democratic Progressive Party to change the name of its representative office in the United States to the Taiwan Representative Office. Naturally, the DPP government was overjoyed with the news, but this message is problematic no matter from what angle it is viewed.

According to the White House statement, Biden had a "broad, strategic discussion" with Xi and "discussed the responsibility of both nations to ensure competition does not veer into conflict." Strictly speaking, this points to a broad framework for the setting up of marginal conversations.

Given the focus of the Chinese Communist Party's current negotiations with the United States, it is clear that Taiwan-related issues are of the utmost importance; given that Biden and the officials concerned have been through the Taiwan Strait Crisis in 1996 and the cross-strait tensions in 1999, they are naturally aware of the seriousness of Taiwan-related issues. This is the issue that will possibly become the trigger for a war between the two sides.

Hence, it is impossible that issues related to sovereignty and territorial integrity, such as that regarding Taiwan, were not addressed in this conversation. This is obvious if we recall the process of reengagement and strategic dialogue between Washington and Beijing after the Taiwan Strait Crisis in March 1996.

In the current political situation facing Biden and the Democratic Party, it is indeed in Biden's best interest to have a conversation with Xi. According to the press release issued by the Chinese Communist Party, several important issues set forth by the Biden administration and the Democrats were addressed in the dialogue between the two nations. This benefits the Biden administration's domestic political struggle in the United States, and indicates that that its policies have been effective.

Because the U.S. — or rather, both the U.S. and China — have such an understanding, it does not seem responsible to continue to indulge the DPP, which has already become like a wild horse galloping toward Taiwan independence, and to give it more encouragement.

It is very clear that such a self-contradictory act has not been done with any assessment of the consequences. Given the Biden administration's current situation, if Beijing does not cooperate with the Biden administration on other important issues (such as the economy and international affairs) while the disaster of withdrawing troops from Afghanistan is still fresh, it will be a disaster that the Biden administration cannot afford and will have a significant impact on next year's midterm elections, perhaps even make Biden an early lame duck.

As such, this is obviously not being arranged by someone with a holistic view of the situation, not to mention any high-level official on the White House National Security Council. Any call at the head-of-state level, if not an emergency, must be scheduled beforehand. In the process of arranging such a call, then, how could one approve a plan that would clearly create a conflict of interest?

It is more likely that there was a group of people in Washington who did not understand the issue surrounding the Taiwan Strait and had simply gone along with the anti-China political mainstream in the capital. A similar idea was circulated among this small group, but did not develop further. After learning of Biden's call with Xi, someone leaked the information to the media, arranging it so that the media got the news the day after the call. Of course, in Taiwan, the expected media effect may divert attention from the meeting between Biden and Xi.

And, of course, there is then the possibility that these people may end up reaping a great deal of personal gain from this arrangement. They are well aware that such an outcome is impossible, and yet they continue to charge bullheadedly down the path. This is the real tragedy of the Taiwanese people!


就在美國總統拜登與中共國家主席習近平兩人通話的後一天,英國金融時報就報導,美國拜登政府正考量讓民進黨政府把駐美代表處更名為「台灣代表處」。這訊息一出,高興萬分的自然是民進黨政府,但這個訊息怎麼看都是有問題的。

拜登與習近平熱線,在白宮公布文檔中,拜登是與習近平進行了一場「廣泛的戰略討論」,並且「討論了兩國的責任,以確保雙方的競爭不會轉為衝突」。嚴格而論,這是一個廣泛的設定架構邊際式的對話。

以中共對美國當前交涉的重點來看,與台灣相關的議題,顯然是重中之重;以拜登和相關官員都是經過九六年台海危機與九九年兩岸戰爭邊緣背景看,對台灣相關議題的嚴重性自然清楚;這是雙方之間真正會引爆一場戰爭的議題。

所以如果說,有關台灣這類主權與領土完整的相關議題,沒有在這次對話中被論及,那是不可能的事。只要想一想九六年三月台海危機後,華府與北京再接觸並開啟「戰略對話」過程就知道了。

就當前拜登,乃至民主黨政治利益看,拜登與習近平這次對話,的確是最有利的。從中共發布的新聞稿來看,若干被拜登政府/民主黨所設定的重要議題,在雙方對話中都已論及;這就拜登政府在美國國內的政治鬥爭中是有利益的,也表示其政策是有效的。

在美方,甚至是美中雙方都有如此認知的背景之下,再放任已經是脫疆野馬衝向台獨的民進黨,並給予鼓勵,怎麼看都不像是「負責任」的樣子。

一個非常清楚的圖像是,這種自相矛盾的作為,明顯沒有做過任何後果評估。以拜登政府當前的形勢,在阿富汗撤軍的災情未過之際,如果在其它重大(如財經、國際等)議題上得不到北京合作,這對拜登政府將會是一個無法承擔的災難,對於明年的期中選舉,乃至提前跛鴨都會是重大的影響。

所以這明顯不是一個具有統盤全局考量的人安排的,更不用說是會到白宮國安會高層了。任何一個元首級別的通話,如果不是緊急事態,都需要經過時間安排,在安排此一通話的過程中,怎會同意同時進行個一明顯會造成本身利益衝突的計畫?

比較有可能的是,華府有一批較缺乏台海問題概念的人,順著華府反中的政治主流,提出了打擦邊球的類似想法後,在某一個小圈圈當中流轉,但是並未向上發展。在得悉拜登與習近平通話事態之後,就丟給媒體,所以可安排在拜習通話後一天就見諸媒體。當然,其中所期待的媒體效應在台灣或許不無沖淡拜習會重要性的可能。

當然,更等而下之的,就是這些人可能會在這樣種明知不可能但硬幹的安排中,從中撈取大量私利。這才是真正的台灣人的悲哀!
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