I Want To Believe in the Resilience of American Democracy

Published in Seiron
(Japan) on 7 September 2021
by Tatsuhiko Yoshizaki (link to originallink to original)
Translated from by Max Guerrera-Sapone. Edited by Gillian Palmer.
Thoughts on the 20th Anniversary of 9/11

It will soon be 20 years since that day. That day, Sept. 11, 2001, when two airliners were hijacked by terrorists and crashed into the World Trade Center in New York. To help refresh our memory of that time, I would like to review a few keywords from my notes.

First, there were people who referred to the attacks as the “second Pearl Harbor.” This is an analogy: On a clear morning, a sudden tragedy changed the course of history. However, this was not Hawaii, far from the mainland, but America’s economic heart, Manhattan, which was attacked. For better or for worse, the memory of Pearl Harbor has faded since 9/11. December of this year will mark the 80th anniversary of that attack, but it is unlikely that much attention will be paid to its commemoration.

The Economist referred to 9/11 as “the day that changed everything.” Certainly, when as much as happened on 9/11 happens in one day, it is hard to believe that things could go on without changing.

In America, structural reform to prevent terrorism was carried out, including the establishment of the Department of Homeland Security. Intelligence activities were reviewed, and government surveillance of its citizens’ everyday lives was strengthened. For us, too, there was change. That it became such a fuss to board a plane was, of course, because awareness of “security” in every possible environment became the norm.

Another phrase I often heard was “clash of civilizations.” There were numerous optimistic theories in the 1990s. The Cold War had ended, and peace would visit the world. The global economy would keep growing, and the spread of the internet and the IT revolution would change people’s understanding of the world. The power of the individual would expand, the role of the state would contract and multinational corporations and international institutions would come to play a critical role in international affairs.

What occurred instead, however, was a clash of religious and ethnic groups that could not understand each other. Humanity was not as wise as was presumed, and conflict did not end. The role of the state expanded as we became forced to grapple with a number of issues, from aging societies to economic security, climate change and the prevention of pandemics.

The Development of the Internet and the Division It Wrought

The development of the internet certainly brought about numerous new products and services that changed our way of life. However, at the same time, internet spaces have served as a breeding ground for hate speech and conspiracy theories. They have even become a new method for recruiting terrorists. Rather than promoting the increased consciousness of the world’s diversity, the internet has brought about the polarization of public opinion and division. That democracy has a surprising fragility is indeed, one of the lessons of these past 20 years.

Security experts have explained terrorism as an “asymmetrical threat.” If this were a conflict between two countries, the threat of mass reprisals could serve as a deterrent. In other words, if one is attacked, one must attack back. This is the history of war. However, if one’s adversary is a terrorist network, it becomes unclear against just whom one should retaliate. Therefore, it is hard to completely wipe out the threat.

America first attacked Afghanistan, and then Iraq. As per the oft-quoted words of George F. Kennan, “Democracy fights in anger.”

At the time, the neoconservatives, who were proud of American prosperity, argued that to wipe out terrorism, it would be necessary to democratize the Middle East. On the left, liberal hawks proclaimed that it was necessary to focus on nation-building in failed states like Afghanistan. It may be hard to believe now, but at the time, the American military intervention received bipartisan support.

Ten years later, in May 2011, the leader of the al-Qaida group that planned the 9/11 attacks, Osama bin Laden, was killed by the U.S. Army in Pakistan. This did not, however, end the threat of terrorism. In the Middle East, the Islamic State Sunni radical Islamist group, which is even more brutal than al-Qaida, emerged.

In spite of this, America withdrew from Afghanistan at the end of last month. As if to abandon all it had worked for, it ended 20 years of fighting in what was the longest war in American history.

With an End to Arrogance, a Fresh Start

Afghanistan has once again fallen into the hands of the Taliban. There are concerns that it may once again become a failed state, and a hotbed of terrorism. Despite this, I think President Joe Biden’s decision was the correct one. To make a fresh start, he had to put an end to the arrogance of the past.

Twenty years on from the 9/11 attacks, I am reminded of the words of James Bryce. While future Japanese Prime Minister Kijūrō Shidehara was serving as counselor to the Japanese Embassy in Washington, he became friends with Bryce, the British ambassador to the United States. Bryce offered the following advice to Shidehara, who was struggling to improve Japanese American relations:

“If we review American history, we can see that there are many examples where America has committed what could be considered wrongdoings against other countries. However, America has always corrected these mistakes of its own volition. It does not yield to the pressure of even fierce foreign public opinion.”

I would like to believe that, even now, American democracy possesses that kind of resilience.


20年目の9・11から思うこと

間もなくあの日から20年目を迎える。テロリストにハイジャックされた2機の民間航空機が、ニューヨークの世界貿易センタービルに激突した2001年9月11日のことである。当時のノートをひもとき、あの事件を思い起こさせるキーワードを拾い出してみよう。

まずは「第2の真珠湾」という声があった。ある晴れた朝、突然訪れた悲劇が歴史を変えたというアナロジーである。しかも本土から遠く離れたハワイでなく、アメリカ経済の心臓部ともいうべきマンハッタンがテロリストに攻撃されたのだ。良くも悪くも、「9・11 米中枢同時テロ」以降は真珠湾の記憶が薄れる。今年12月は真珠湾攻撃80周年となるが、そのことはあまり注目されないだろう。

英『エコノミスト』誌は、「すべてが変わった日」だと称した。これだけのことが起きて、変わらずにいられることなどあるだろうかと。

アメリカではテロ対策のために、「国土安全保障省」が創設されるなど機構改革が進んだ。インテリジェンス活動が見直され、国民の日常生活への監視も強化された。われわれの身の回りでも変化があった。航空機の搭乗手続きが煩雑になったのはもちろん、あらゆる場面で「セキュリティー」が意識されるようになった。

それからよく耳にしたのは「文明の衝突」という言葉である。1990年代にはさまざまな楽観論があった。冷戦は終了し、世界は平和の配当を手にするだろう。グローバル経済は成長を続け、インターネットの普及とIT革命が人々の意識を変えるだろう。個人のパワーが拡大して国家の役割は縮小し、多国籍企業や国際機関が存在感を強めるであろうと。

ところが21世紀に生じたのは、互いに理解し合えない民族や宗教間の衝突だった。人類はそれほど賢明ではなく、争いは絶えなかった。国家の役割は増え、高齢化問題から経済安全保障、気候変動対策にパンデミックへの防疫体制まで多くの課題に追われている。

分断招いたネット空間の発展

インターネットの発展は、確かに幾多の新商品や新サービスを生み出し、われわれの暮らしを変えた。ただし同時にネット空間では、ヘイトスピーチや陰謀論がはびこることもわかった。それは新たなテロリストをリクルートする手段にさえなり得る。ネットは意識の多様化を促すどころか、むしろ世論の両極化や分断を招いている。民主主義の意外な脆弱(ぜいじゃく)性が明らかになったことも、この20年間の学習のひとつである。

安全保障の専門家たちは、テロリズムは「非対称型の脅威」だと説明した。これが国と国との関係であれば、大量報復によって抑止が可能になる。だから、やられたらやり返す。それが戦争の歴史であった。ところが相手がテロ・ネットワークの場合は、報復すべき対象が見当たらない。ゆえに脅威を根絶することが難しい。

アメリカはアフガニスタンへ、次にイラクへと侵攻した。「民主主義国は怒って戦争をする」との米外交官、ジョージ・ケナンの言葉がたびたび引用されたものだ。

当時、隆盛を誇ったネオコン派は、世界からテロを根絶するために中東を民主化せよと論じた。左派ではリベラルホークが、アフガニスタンのような失敗国家における国家建設の必要性を説いた。今では忘却のかなたかもしれないが、アメリカの軍事行動は少なくとも国内的には超党派の支持を得ていたのである。

それから10年後、「9・11」を首謀した国際テロ組織アルカーイダの指導者、ウサマ・ビンラーディン容疑者は、2011年5月にパキスタンで米軍によって殺害された。ところが、それはテロの脅威の終わりを意味するものではなかった。中東ではイスラム教スンニ派過激組織「イスラム国」(IS)というアルカーイダ以上に残虐なテロ集団も登場している。

それでも先月末をもって、米軍はアフガニスタンから撤収した。全てを投げ出すかのようにして、20年というアメリカ史上最長の戦争を終わらせたのだ。

傲慢に終止符で新たな一歩

アフガニスタンは再びタリバンの手に落ちた。再び失敗国家となりテロリストの温床となる恐れもある。それでもバイデン大統領の決断は正しかったと思う。新しい一歩を踏み出すために、過去の傲慢さに終止符を打ったのだと。

20年後のいま、あらためて思い浮かぶのは「ブライスの教え」である。外交官時代の幣原喜重郎が駐米参事官であった当時、駐米英国大使のジェームズ・ブライスの知己を得た。対米関係に悩む幣原に対し、ブライス大使はこんなアドバイスを与えたという。

「アメリカの歴史を見ると、外国に対して不正と思われるような行為を冒した事例が相当あります。ですが、その不正はアメリカ人自身の発意でそれを矯正しています。激しい外国世論の圧力に屈するわけではないのです」

アメリカの民主主義には、今もそんな復元力があると信じたい。
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