Staying out of the US-China Arms Race

Published in China Times
(Taiwan) on 20 October 2021
by Chuan-i Tan (link to originallink to original)
Translated from by Pinyu Hwang. Edited by Gillian Palmer.
In response to foreign media reports that China launched a hypersonic missile in August, Taiwanese Ministry of National Defense spokesman Shih Shun-wen said, "The national military is closely monitoring and will further evaluate the situation, in order to develop corresponding strategies and capabilities to safeguard national security." What's amusing is that U.S. website Defense News reported on Aug. 5 that the U.S. Missile Defense Agency had announced the termination of a previously launched project on hypersonic missiles. If even the U.S. Army couldn't do anything about the People's Liberation Army's DF-17 or Russia's Pioneer and Dagger missiles, how could the Taiwanese military?

If we don't have the capability, we should admit it. This game has too high a price and is not something we can afford to play. Why not just say that the national army will not be part of the U.S.-China arms race?

The development of hypersonic missiles is extremely difficult. What makes it difficult? First, the speed of hypersonic missiles ranges from Mach 6 to Mach 20. The missile's trajectory can change while in flight. Coupled with concealment design and the application of stealth coatings, tracking becomes extremely difficult. Second, there is no appropriate interceptor missile.

In the past, U.S. military development was incorrectly directed at the pursuit of hypersonic cruise missiles. This goal required an extremely wide range of technical knowledge and advancement, and ultimately ended in failure. The Russian and Chinese hypersonic missiles belong to the category of boost-glide hypersonic weapons. Its supersonic engine boosts it out of the atmosphere, and then it glides back into the atmosphere at high speed, relying on aerodynamic lift to glide — as though on water — to deliver long-range strikes.

It is extremely difficult to develop hypersonic missiles and even more difficult to intercept them, with only two ways to do so. The first is to improve existing anti-missile systems, especially for diversified near-space detection and tracking capabilities so that they become a means of intercepting hypersonic missiles. The second form of interception is laser weapons.

Lasers are currently the most promising weapons. All military powers are investing considerable resources in their research and development. The U.S. Army, for instance, has been equipping the Arleigh Burke-class destroyers with laser weapons. Current laser weapons can intercept only small targets at close range, such as drones or small aircraft. Intercepting large missiles is not yet possible, but it is not far off.

Two main factors limit the performance of laser weapons: For one, laser power is insufficient, and two, it rapidly decays in the atmosphere due to the presence of air, water vapor and impurities. Therefore, major powers are trying to figure out how to deploy laser weapons in space, thus eliminating the atmospheric effects. Although this has not yet been achieved, it will be soon.

Our national military does not have anti-ballistic missile capability, nor do we have robust space detection capability, and of course we do not have any laser weapon capability. It is enough to guard well our own acre of land; hypersonic missiles really have nothing to do with us.


國防部發言人史順文針對外媒大陸8月份發射極音速飛彈的報導表示:「國軍嚴密掌握,並將進一步研判,研擬發展相對應的策略及能力,維護國家安全。」搞笑的是,美國《Defense News》網站8月5日報導,美國導彈防禦局(MDA)宣布終止了此前開展的極音速飛彈專案。連美軍都拿解放軍的東風-17和俄羅斯的先鋒與匕首飛彈沒辦法,難道國軍就行?

不行就說不行,這個賽局太昂貴,根本就不是該我們玩得起的,何不直接說:國軍不加入美中軍備競賽。

研發極音速飛彈非常困難,難在哪兒呢?第一,極音速飛彈速度極快,從6馬赫到20馬赫都有,如果末端乘波飛行、可變軌,再加上彈體匿蹤設計和塗覆隱身塗料,追蹤極為困難。第二,沒有合適的攔截飛彈。

過去美軍發展方向錯誤,一味追求巡弋飛彈的極音速,這個技術跨度極大,最終以失敗告終。而中俄極音速飛彈屬於助推-滑翔的高超音速武器,它的超然衝壓引擎助推到大氣層之外,然後以滑翔姿態高速返回大氣層、並依靠氣動升力,以打水漂姿態滑翔,進行遠距離打擊。

研發極音速飛彈極困難,要想攔截更是難上加難。只有兩種方式可以攔截:第一,改善現有的反導系統,特別是針對近太空的多元化偵測與追蹤能力,使其成為攔截極音速飛彈的手段。第二,雷射武器。

雷射武器是最具發展前景的武器,各軍事強國也都在投入大量的資源研發,美軍就把雷射武器裝備到伯克級驅逐艦上。目前的雷射武器只能在近距離攔截小型目標,例如無人機或小型飛機等,攔截大型飛彈還不行,但已經不遠了。

限制雷射武器性能的主要因素有兩個:第一,雷射功率不足。第二,雷射光在大氣中受到空氣、水蒸氣及雜質的影響而快速衰減。因此,太空強國研究如何把雷射武器部署在太空,就可消除大氣的影響,目前還沒有實現,但快了。

國軍既不具備反彈道飛彈能力、也不具備太空偵測能力、更不具備雷射武器能力,守好自己的一畝三分地就已經功德圓滿了,極音速飛彈真的與我們無關。
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