US-Chinese Antagonism: Is Japanese Deterrence Alone Enough?

Published in Nishinippon Shimbun
(Japan) on 28 October 2021
by (link to originallink to original)
Translated from by Dorothy Phoenix. Edited by Gillian Palmer.
The antagonism between the U.S. and China grows increasingly vehement, and tensions in East Asia are deepening. What course of action should Japan take? The Japanese House of Representatives election is a good opportunity to examine the foundational stance of each party.

Regarding public commitments on diplomacy and national security, all the parties generally share a sense of wariness toward China. The reason for the caution is that in the past 10 years, China's national defense budget has swelled by about two to three times, which cannot be overlooked.

Recently, China has become an increasing military threat toward Taiwan, emphasizing its focus on unification, which has prompted fears from related nations about a possible crisis in Taiwan. Furthermore, since September, North Korea has continued developing new models of missiles; instability in East Asia has certainly been mounting.

Given these circumstances, many voices inside and outside of Japan are calling for Japan to strengthen its defense capabilities.

Defense costs have been limited to 1% of the national gross domestic product, but Japan's Liberal Democratic Party has publicly committed to increasing that amount to 2%. The party is also mindful of the target defense budget rates of other NATO member countries.

However, we can say that the numbers for this increase in defense spending have been determined without doing a detailed estimation of the necessary equipment, and the heavy-handed approach of taking advantage of citizens' uneasiness is plain to see. The country's budget deficit is significant, so this spending must also be balanced with social security and other expenses. The Komeito Party, a member of the ruling coalition, seems justified in its criticism that the plan has not gained "the people's understanding."

Another point to consider is the pros and cons of possessing capabilities to attack enemy bases, which calls into question the plan's consistency with Japan's national policy of nonaggressive defense. The core of the LDP's pledge is to "maintain the ability to obstruct ballistic missiles within enemy territory."

Considering North Korea's and China's advancements in missile technology, along with the Japan Self-Defense Force's current equipment, realizing these goals would be quite difficult, and would also possibly require a vast increase in cost. The Komeito Party and the opposition parties are pessimistic, calling the plan "unrealistic."

The administrations of both Prime Ministers Shinzo Abe and Yoshihide Suga prioritized a strengthened alliance with the U.S., purchasing large amounts of defensive equipment from the U.S. with an inclination toward strengthening deterrence ability. The assumption is that henceforth, the U.S. will want Japan to incur even more costs.

We hope that the defense budget will be used efficiently, with an aim toward improving necessary deterrence ability, while at the same time, not launching an arms race with nearby nations.

Opposition parties, such as the Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan, that insist on a "commitment to nonaggressive defense" based on the U.S.-Japan alliance ought to also address the public's anxiety about the threat of China and discuss more concrete measures.

As the debate on deterrence ability continues, we also hope to discuss a diplomatic call to ease tensions. It is difficult to say that an election campaign debate is the right time for such a discussion. In particular, we must seek a diplomacy that cultivates trust through repeated dialogue with closely neighboring countries. Leadership discussions with neighboring nations have not progressed.

How can we break free from this stagnation? Many citizens are waiting to see a positive, constructive message from the government.


米中対立と日本 「抑止力」だけでよいのか

米国と中国の対立が激しさを増し、東アジアの緊張も高まっている。日本はいかなる針路を取るべきか。衆院選は各党の基本姿勢を見極める好機である。

 外交・安全保障の公約で各党におおむね共通するのは中国への警戒感である。この10年で中国の国防予算は約2・3倍に膨らみ、看過できないからだ。

 中国は最近、台湾に対し「統一」へ向けた軍事的威嚇を強めており、関係国に台湾有事の懸念が生じている。さらに北朝鮮が9月以降、多様な新型ミサイルの発射を続け、東アジアの不安定さは確実に増してきた。

 このため、日本の防衛力増強を求める声が国内外にある。

 防衛費は国内総生産(GDP)比1%程度に抑えられてきたが、自民党は公約で「2%以上も念頭に増額を目指す」とした。北大西洋条約機構(NATO)加盟国の国防予算で目標とする比率も念頭に置いたという。

ただこの数字は必要な装備の細かな積算もなく、防衛費増額ありきで設定されたと言え、国民の不安に便乗した強引さが際立つ。国の財政赤字は深刻で、社会保障など他分野とのバランスもある。連立与党の公明党が「国民の理解を得られない」と批判するのも当然だろう。

 国是としてきた「専守防衛」との整合性が問われる「敵基地攻撃能力」保有の是非も争点である。自民党の公約は「相手領域内で弾道ミサイル等を阻止する能力の保有」と踏み込んだ。

 北朝鮮や中国のミサイル技術の向上と自衛隊装備の現況を考えると、実現はかなり困難で、膨大なコストがかかる可能性もある。公明党や野党は「現実的でない」などと否定的だ。

 安倍晋三、菅義偉両政権は日米同盟深化を優先させ、米国から巨額の防衛装備品を購入し、抑止力強化に傾斜してきた。今後、米国がさらなる負担増を求めることも想定される。

 防衛費を効率的に使い、必要な抑止力の維持を目指すにしても、かえって周辺国の軍拡競争を招くような事態は避けたい。

日米同盟を基軸にして「専守防衛に徹する」と主張する立憲民主党など野党も、中国の「脅威」に対する国民の不安をすくい取り、より具体的な政策を語るべきだろう。

 抑止力論議と同時に、緊張緩和を促す外交について論じてほしい。選挙戦の議論が熟したとは言い難い。特に近隣国とは対話を重ね、信頼を醸成する外交こそ求められる。隣国同士の首脳対話も進まないままだ。

 この停滞をいかに抜け出すのか。政治の前向きなメッセージを待つ国民は少なくない。
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