Distributing Oil Stockpiles: Will Unprecedented Measures Contain the Rise in Prices?

Published in Yomiuri Shimbun
(Japan) on 25 November 2021
by (link to originallink to original)
Translated from by Owen Hester. Edited by Elizabeth Cosgriff.
Will coordinated action by the major oil consuming countries lead to stable prices? Governments should carefully explain the necessity of such action to their citizens and also try to engage in dialogue with oil-producing countries.

President Joe Biden has announced that the U.S. government will release its oil reserves in cooperation with other major countries, including Japan. Over the next few months, the U.S. will supply a total of 50 million barrels, enough for about three days of domestic consumption.

In response to the U.S. request, Prime Minister Fumio Kishida announced that it will release its national [oil] stockpile for the first time along with China, India, South Korea and the U.K., for a total of six countries. It is highly unusual for major countries to release their national stockpiles at the same time.

The soaring price of crude oil has become a major risk to the global economy; we can understand why they are trying to ease the situation.

In the U.S., which is a car-oriented society, people are becoming increasingly dissatisfied with the rising price of gasoline. Rising prices are one of the reasons for the decline in Biden's approval ratings, and the release of oil stockpiles is expected to help him recover his approval ratings.

In Japan, the government intends to sell a few days' worth of domestic demand to oil wholesalers and other companies.

Also, the price of gasoline in Japan is at a seven-year high of nearly 170 yen per liter (approximately $5.69 per gallon). However, the price is hardly critically high enough to warrant the release of the national stockpile for the first time in history. This move is most likely a sign of cooperation with the United States.

The 1975 Oil Stockpiling Act, which was enacted in response to the oil crisis of the 1970s, was designed to prepare for disasters and supply disruptions from overseas, not to suppress prices. Therefore, the policy is to maintain the amount of stockpiled oil as stipulated by the law and to withdraw a portion of the excess.

The law stipulates that the national stockpile must be at least 90 days’ worth and the private stockpile must be at least 70 days’ worth. As of the end of September, the national stockpile was 145 days' worth and the private stockpile was at 90 days.

The release of crude oil must be kept to a minimum in case of disaster to avoid concern about supply.

However, it is unclear whether the coordinated release of crude oil will drive down the market price of crude oil. The price of U.S. crude oil futures, a benchmark, rose slightly after the announcement of the stockpile release.

On the other hand, some observers believe that oil-producing countries may slow down the current pace of increasing production to counteract this. If the confrontation between oil-consuming countries and oil-producing countries intensifies, the market could become even more unstable.

If the global economy stalls and demand plummets due to prolonged high oil prices, the oil-producing countries will be hit hard. The oil-consuming countries need to explain that stability in the crude oil market is in the interest of the oil-producing countries and persist in urging them to increase production.


原油の主要消費国による協調行動が、価格の安定につながるのか。各国政府は、その必要性について丁寧に国民に説明するとともに、産油国との対話にも努めるべきだ。
米国のバイデン大統領は、日本を含めた主要国と連携し、政府の石油備蓄を放出すると発表した。米国は今後数か月かけて、国内消費量の約3日分にあたる計5000万バレルを供給するとしている。
米国の要請を受け、岸田首相は国家備蓄を初めて放出すると表明した。中国、インド、韓国、英国と共に6か国で行うという。主要国が歩調を合わせて国家備蓄を放出するのは、極めて異例だ。
原油価格の高騰は世界経済の大きなリスクになっており、その沈静化を図る狙いは理解できる。
車社会の米国では、ガソリンの値上がりで国民の不満が高まっている。物価上昇がバイデン氏の支持率低下の一因になっており、備蓄放出を支持率の回復につなげる思惑があるとみられる。
日本では、石油元売り会社などを対象に、国内需要の数日分を売却する意向だという。
日本でも、ガソリン価格は1リットルあたり170円近くと、7年ぶりの高水準にある。ただ、初の国家備蓄の放出に踏み切るほど危機的な高値とは言い難い。対米協調の意味合いが強いのだろう。
1970年代の石油危機を受けて制定された石油備蓄法は、災害時や海外からの供給途絶に備えるもので、価格抑制は本来の目的ではない。そのため、法律で決めた備蓄量は確保し、それを超える余剰分の一部を取り崩す方針だ。
石油備蓄法では、国家備蓄は90日分以上、民間備蓄は70日分以上などと定めている。9月末時点で国家備蓄は145日分、民間備蓄は90日分あるという。
災害時などのために放出は最低限にとどめ、供給への不安が生じないようにせねばならない。
一方、協調放出が原油相場を押し下げるかどうか、効果のほどははっきりしない。指標となる米国の原油先物価格は、備蓄放出の表明後、やや値上がりした。
逆に、産油国が対抗上、現在の増産ペースを落とすのではないかとの観測も出ている。消費国と産油国の対立が激化すれば、市場はさらに不安定になりかねない。
原油高騰の長期化で世界経済が失速し、需要が急減すると、産油国側の打撃も大きい。消費国は、原油市場の安定こそが産油国の利益になることを説明し、粘り強く増産を働きかける必要がある。
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