The US Announces New Talks with Russia. Will Dialogue Dissuade It from Attacking Ukraine?*

In January, Washington will conduct a series of talks with the Russians in various formats, including through the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe, being chaired by Poland from the beginning of 2022. What does this mean for our region?

A spokesman for the U.S. National Security Council informed Agence France-Presse that the new talks with Moscow are to be held in the second week of January. This was confirmed by Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs Sergei Ryabkov.

For weeks now, U.S. intelligence has been warning its allies about a potential new Russian attack on Ukraine, which could take place at the end of January. Due to the gathering of Russian troops at the Ukrainian border, the U.S. is currently conducting a diplomatic offensive to prevent this from happening. It consists of, on the one hand, consultations with allies and warnings for Vladimir Putin, and on the other, readiness to enter into dialogue with the Kremlin.

Putin denies the accusations that he is preparing for the attack and argues that he is the one who feels threatened by the “aggressive” actions of the West. He demands a guarantee that Ukraine will not join NATO and that there will be no “offensive weapons” in the countries bordering Russia.

US: No Arrangements without Our Allies

Commentators emphasize that it is hard to imagine that NATO would allow Russia to decide how it conducts its military policy. But they also note that, although it did not officially slam the door on the Ukrainians, it lost its desire to expand following the 2014 Russian invasion.

The spokesman of the U.S. National Security Council stated that the talks with the Russians would be guided by the principle of “nothing about our Allies and partners without our Allies and partners, including Ukraine.”

"President Biden's approach on Ukraine has been clear and consistent: Unite the alliance behind two tracks: deterrence and diplomacy. We are unified as an Alliance on the consequences Russia would face if it moves on Ukraine. But we are also unified in our willingness to engage in principled diplomacy with Russia," the spokesman said.

During a video conference with Putin on Dec. 7, President Joe Biden warned that an attack would lead to new economic sanctions by the West, the strengthening of NATO’s eastern flank and additional U.S. military equipment for Ukraine.

The Americans have been supporting the Ukrainian army for years. The U.S. defense budget, signed on Monday by Biden, provided $300 million for this purpose (as well as $4 billion for American forces in Europe under the European Deterrence Initiative, and $150 million for supporting the Baltic states).

The Plan of Talks with Russia

Despite the hopes of the commentators, the abovementioned video conference did not result in a de-escalation.

The next U.S.-Russia negotiations are to take place on Jan. 10 (it is not yet known on what level). They will be organized as part of the strategic security talks initiated by Biden and Putin at their meeting last June in Geneva. They are intended mainly to address arms control, but as the spokesman pointed out, in the current situation they will also concern Ukraine.

On Jan. 12, a meeting between NATO and Russia is planned, and on Jan. 13, talks between Russia and the OSCE. The latter format includes Ukraine, which, together with the U.S. and Poland, is one of the 57 members of the OSCE. In 2022, Warsaw is taking over the rotating chairmanship of the organization.

The Kremlin does not hide the fact that it would prefer to negotiate the issues of Ukraine and NATO only with Washington. It dreams of returning to the times when the fate of smaller countries was decided by superpowers.

However, the Biden administration has repeatedly asserted that this will not be the case. Another matter is that some of its decisions have raised concerns in our region: waiving the sanctions on Nord Stream 2; the very fact of conducting a dialogue with Moscow and listening to its objections regarding NATO; and finally, the unclear — although no longer applicable, it seems — announcement of talks with Russia conducted only by selected countries of the Alliance.

The latter was interpreted in Poland as attempts to negotiate with Russians involving the U.S., Great Britain, France, Germany and Italy (Biden called the leaders of these countries shortly before and after the conversation with Putin). Washington drew a veil of silence over this idea after criticism from the so-called Bucharest Nine — that is, the nine countries of NATO’s eastern flank. In any case, this shows that there are clashing ideas within the White House on how policy toward Russia should be conducted.

There Are Reasons for Concern

“It seems to me that the current, extended format of the three-day talks with the Russians should be reassuring. This is a signal that the voice of other countries has been taken into account,” said Mateusz Piotrowski from the Polish Institute of International Affairs, in an interview with Wyborcza.

“It is also important that the format will include the OSCE. Until now, the U.S. has not been that active in this forum. Considering that Poland will be leading the organization starting next year, it can be expected that the voice of NATO’s eastern flank countries, which are more concerned about the Kremlin’s policy, will be taken into account to a greater extent,” the expert added.

However, he warned that in the current situation the talks with Russia may themselves be disturbing. “Once again, Russia caused a crisis that led to the need for talks. We have come to the point where this makes demands upon NATO, but we will continue to discuss this matter,” Piotrowski said.

“As long as NATO signals that Russia’s demands are unacceptable, that it is a defense alliance and that its extension stems from states’ fear of Russia’s policy — it makes sense. However, if it were to refer to the actual Russian proposals, it would turn out that Moscow may have a greater influence on NATO’s defense policy than some of its members. This would be a tragedy,” Piotrowski claimed.

Duda Calmed the US Down a Bit

According to many other commentators, Poland could play a bigger role in the current situation, but the obstacle is the destruction of our rule of law by the Law and Justice government, which weakens our relations with established democracies. After President Andrzej Duda vetoed the “Lex TVN” bill, which would have threatened media pluralism in Poland (and the interests of the American company Discovery Inc.), at least one American cause for concern was removed.

In a conversation with Duda’s representatives on Monday, U.S. National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan conveyed Biden’s appreciation for his vetoing the media law. He also guaranteed American support under Article 5 of the NATO treaty, and the readiness to support the countries of the eastern flank. The interview was attended by the secretaries of state in the Chancellery of the President of the Republic of Poland: Head of the National Security Bureau Paweł Soloch and Head of the International Policy Bureau Jakub Kumoch.

According to Piotrowski, the timing of these consultations is not accidental. “If it had spread over five or seven days, it would have been different. But on the same day that the president vetoed the media bill? American statements assess it as a positive signal. This is a sign that the administration really perceived it that way. This call would probably happen anyway, especially in the face of the upcoming Polish OSCE chairmanship, but not necessarily on this day,” he commented.

*Editor’s Note: The original language version of this article is available through a paid subscription.