Is There Anyone To Trust? The Deterrence Test for the United States and Biden
Published in Mako
(Israel) on 14 January 2022
by Efrat Lechter (link to original)
(Israel) on 14 January 2022
by Efrat Lechter (link to original)
Translated from
by Charles Railey.
Edited by Helaine Schweitzer.
If the United States capitulates and gambles on the future of Ukraine, what will Israel and Iran think? America’s crumbling status as policeman of the world is up for discussion.
On Thursday, another round of talks between the United States and Russia on issues including the future of Ukraine ended without making progress. Russia arrived at the talks prepared with 100,000 soldiers on the border with Ukraine waiting for a command. In fact, since Russia invaded the island of Crimea in 2014, sniper fire and demonstrations on both sides of the border have become routine. Just as it was in the trenches of World War I, Ukrainian soldiers and citizens are digging in every month, fearing a sudden conflagration.
Is Vladimir Putin really about to invade Ukraine as he threatened a month ago if Ukraine joins NATO? Perhaps not, but it could very well happen. What is certain, according to senior officials in Ukraine, is if Putin wishes to invade Ukraine, he cannot be stopped. Russia holds a huge military advantage over Ukraine, which has the ninth largest army in the world but suffers from a large technology gap. This is not an accident. Israel, for example, refuses to sell advanced defense technology to Ukraine for fear it will anger Putin.
Russia’s justification for invading Ukraine apparently is to “defend” pro-Russia separatists in the Donbass region who claim they are the victims of discrimination by the pro-West government in Kyiv.
At the end of an eight-hour meeting on Sunday in Geneva, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov told U.S. Deputy Secretary of State American Wendy Sherman that Russia “has no intention of invading Ukraine.” Today, in contrast, after another round of talks that failed to lead to any agreement, Sherman said, “There was no commitment to de-escalation, no.”
Russia initially came to the talks with a long list of demands, which the United States considered to be illegitimate and which were aimed at frustrating any chance of finding resolution. Demands include a commitment that no additional former Soviet republics can become NATO members. Putin’s position is that NATO seeks to restrain Russia and therefore seeks to eliminate this alliance, and for it to prevent any countries bordering Russia to be admitted as members. The demand that Ukraine not become a member of NATO, which maintains an “open door” policy toward any country that wants to join, would in fact undermine the foundation of this important alliance. Apparently, this is Putin’s actual goal.
Ukraine Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba said this week in reaction to the Geneva discussions that “talks cannot be held about Ukraine without Ukraine.” But this, in fact, is what happened. The United States pledged to update Ukraine about everything, but it is not surprising that Ukraine fears there is no one to trust. One need only look at recent history.
America’s weak foreign policy in the region, which began in 2008 when Russia invaded and occupied territories in Georgia without intervention by the George W. Bush administration, continued in 2012 when Barack Obama reduced the American presence in Eastern Europe to a minimum, and again in 2014 when he allowed Russia to invade the Crimean peninsula and two other provinces in Ukraine, responding with minimal sanctions for Russia and a refusal to arm Ukraine.
Donald Trump finally approved a limited sale of weapons to Ukraine in exchange for political gain, which resulted in his first impeachment. Now Joe Biden, who pledged to take a much stronger line toward Russia during his presidential campaign, is in fact showing weakness in foreign policy on every front. When Putin watched the failed American withdrawal from Afghanistan last summer along with the rest of the world, he understood that he could threaten invasion of Ukraine and also, apparently, that he could carry it out. The United States has lost its deterrence capability and this should greatly concern us.
When the American administration is so weak in the international arena and is losing its power every minute, how can we trust that Israel’s “best friend” will stop the Iranian nuclear program? The Ukraine test case, which lies at America’s doorstep, will also affect us. What will the United States decide to do if Russia invades Ukraine when it is clear that the last thing Biden wants is to send American soldiers to the region and engage in a war with Russia? Biden’s believes the true threat lies further east in China.
For years we have depended on the United States to be the world’s good cop, but for two decades it has failed to fulfill that role. Biden now has the opportunity to restore America’s deterrence force, to arm Ukraine and to strengthen the tough line against Russia. If this does not happen, not only will Ukraine pay the price, but so will all of America’s allies. They will all understand that the United States is no longer the world’s superpower.
On Thursday, another round of talks between the United States and Russia on issues including the future of Ukraine ended without making progress. Russia arrived at the talks prepared with 100,000 soldiers on the border with Ukraine waiting for a command. In fact, since Russia invaded the island of Crimea in 2014, sniper fire and demonstrations on both sides of the border have become routine. Just as it was in the trenches of World War I, Ukrainian soldiers and citizens are digging in every month, fearing a sudden conflagration.
Is Vladimir Putin really about to invade Ukraine as he threatened a month ago if Ukraine joins NATO? Perhaps not, but it could very well happen. What is certain, according to senior officials in Ukraine, is if Putin wishes to invade Ukraine, he cannot be stopped. Russia holds a huge military advantage over Ukraine, which has the ninth largest army in the world but suffers from a large technology gap. This is not an accident. Israel, for example, refuses to sell advanced defense technology to Ukraine for fear it will anger Putin.
Russia’s justification for invading Ukraine apparently is to “defend” pro-Russia separatists in the Donbass region who claim they are the victims of discrimination by the pro-West government in Kyiv.
At the end of an eight-hour meeting on Sunday in Geneva, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov told U.S. Deputy Secretary of State American Wendy Sherman that Russia “has no intention of invading Ukraine.” Today, in contrast, after another round of talks that failed to lead to any agreement, Sherman said, “There was no commitment to de-escalation, no.”
Russia initially came to the talks with a long list of demands, which the United States considered to be illegitimate and which were aimed at frustrating any chance of finding resolution. Demands include a commitment that no additional former Soviet republics can become NATO members. Putin’s position is that NATO seeks to restrain Russia and therefore seeks to eliminate this alliance, and for it to prevent any countries bordering Russia to be admitted as members. The demand that Ukraine not become a member of NATO, which maintains an “open door” policy toward any country that wants to join, would in fact undermine the foundation of this important alliance. Apparently, this is Putin’s actual goal.
Ukraine Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba said this week in reaction to the Geneva discussions that “talks cannot be held about Ukraine without Ukraine.” But this, in fact, is what happened. The United States pledged to update Ukraine about everything, but it is not surprising that Ukraine fears there is no one to trust. One need only look at recent history.
America’s weak foreign policy in the region, which began in 2008 when Russia invaded and occupied territories in Georgia without intervention by the George W. Bush administration, continued in 2012 when Barack Obama reduced the American presence in Eastern Europe to a minimum, and again in 2014 when he allowed Russia to invade the Crimean peninsula and two other provinces in Ukraine, responding with minimal sanctions for Russia and a refusal to arm Ukraine.
Donald Trump finally approved a limited sale of weapons to Ukraine in exchange for political gain, which resulted in his first impeachment. Now Joe Biden, who pledged to take a much stronger line toward Russia during his presidential campaign, is in fact showing weakness in foreign policy on every front. When Putin watched the failed American withdrawal from Afghanistan last summer along with the rest of the world, he understood that he could threaten invasion of Ukraine and also, apparently, that he could carry it out. The United States has lost its deterrence capability and this should greatly concern us.
When the American administration is so weak in the international arena and is losing its power every minute, how can we trust that Israel’s “best friend” will stop the Iranian nuclear program? The Ukraine test case, which lies at America’s doorstep, will also affect us. What will the United States decide to do if Russia invades Ukraine when it is clear that the last thing Biden wants is to send American soldiers to the region and engage in a war with Russia? Biden’s believes the true threat lies further east in China.
For years we have depended on the United States to be the world’s good cop, but for two decades it has failed to fulfill that role. Biden now has the opportunity to restore America’s deterrence force, to arm Ukraine and to strengthen the tough line against Russia. If this does not happen, not only will Ukraine pay the price, but so will all of America’s allies. They will all understand that the United States is no longer the world’s superpower.
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