Invasion of Ukraine Opens a New Era in Europe, Restores US to Its Role as Continental Sentinel
Russian military aggression forces the allies to return to the Cold War strategy of containment against Moscow. The anticipated rearmament of the continent once again makes Washington a key player in European defense.
"America is back." The phrase so often repeated by U.S. President Joe Biden finally makes sense. The Russian invasion of Ukraine has restored the United States to its central role in the defense of a European continent still perplexed by the brutal challenge posed by Vladimir Putin. He has not only pulverized international law with his military aggression, but also put in check the European order that has served to maintain peace among its great powers since the collapse of communism. The advance of Russian troops toward Kyiv, with the avowed intention of overthrowing its government at gunpoint, is beginning to shape a new era on the continent, marked by policies of containment toward Moscow very similar to those that prevailed during the half-century of the Cold War.
"Putin has made it clear that he wants to overthrow the European order of the last 30 years, take control of his neighborhood, and destabilize democratic societies wherever they may be. Hence this crisis goes far beyond Ukraine," said Daniel Hamilton, the State Department's former No. 2 for European affairs, in an interview.* In the coming weeks there will be much speculation as to whether this is the beginning of a new cold war in Europe, which has seen the Kremlin invade a sovereign country of 44 million inhabitants, the second largest on the continent and second only to Russia itself, under all sorts of pretexts.
The contours of the new geopolitical framework have already begun to be drawn with the response adopted by NATO, the EU and the U.S., which has recovered its raison d'être in Europe, where it had 90,000 military personnel permanently stationed before the crisis. The eastern borders of the continent have been reinforced; the first steps have been taken to block the Russian economy from the international market with the most draconian sanctions against Moscow in history. These are the first sketches of a containment policy that, in the worst-case scenario, could lead to something similar to a new Iron Curtain, the unofficial border that divided the continent into two ideological blocs after the end of World War II.
Strategy of Containment
"The strategy then was to wear Russia down so that it was unable to compete with the vibrant Western economies. It's going to take time, but we'll see it again," Hamilton believes.* One of the costs of that strategy will be the militarization of Europe, forced by Putin's determination to create puppet states along its borders to serve as a buffer against NATO, an organization that has for years cultivated cooperation with Russia while expanding eastward, ignoring Russia's protests. The Russian interventions in Georgia, Ukraine and Belarus in recent years cannot be explained otherwise. None of those interventions, however, match the current invasion in its severity.
Biden has already announced the additional deployment of 7,000 U.S. troops to Europe, alongside those deployed by the United Kingdom in the Baltic countries and by France in Romania. The paradigm shift is not a bad short-term deal for the U.S., despite the president's intention to focus his efforts on rebuilding the American middle class after decades of foreign interventions. The U.S. arms industry is set to be the biggest beneficiary of rearmament — the same fate that has befallen its energy sector, as Europe seeks to reduce its dependence on Russian hydrocarbons. Last year, the U.S. became the leading exporter of liquefied natural gas to the continent.
US Presence in Europe
Washington's ascendancy should also be strengthened among those countries that have questioned, in one way or another, its massive presence in Europe. "This threat will expose some of the misconceptions that have prevailed over the past 30 years," says Peter Fever,** a former security council adviser in the Clinton and Bush administrations.* "Such as the naiveté shown by Germany in thinking it could make money with Russia without contributing to creating a monster, or that shown by France in believing it can handle world problems without counting on the U.S."*
But these short-term benefits may eventually turn into a burden; the world is returning to a dangerous struggle between great powers. Until now, the U.S. was almost exclusively focused on containing China, but it will no longer be able to dismiss Russia as a minor nuisance after seeing its willingness to blow up its neighbor’s borders and regain the imperialist trappings of the Soviet era. Three years ago, Congress concluded that, based on a Pentagon report, the U.S. "could be overwhelmed if forced to fight on two or more fronts simultaneously."*
What it now faces are two authoritarian regimes willing to change the rules of the game and undermine democracy. Ukraine is a good example. "Its potential NATO membership has no substance. It's not on the table; hence it's nothing more than a pretext for Putin," Hamilton says. "What he can't stand is for Ukraine to become an alternative model to his regime in Russia, a prosperous and democratic country. That's why he wants to subjugate it, to reintegrate it into Greater Russia or turn it into an obedient puppet state."*
*Editor's Note: These quotations, accurately translated, could not be verified.
**Editor's Note: This individual's name could not be verified.
"America is back." The phrase so often repeated by U.S. President Joe Biden finally makes sense. The Russian invasion of Ukraine has restored the United States to its central role in the defense of a European continent still perplexed by the brutal challenge posed by Vladimir Putin. He has not only pulverized international law with his military aggression, but also put in check the European order that has served to maintain peace among its great powers since the collapse of communism. The advance of Russian troops toward Kyiv, with the avowed intention of overthrowing its government at gunpoint, is beginning to shape a new era on the continent, marked by policies of containment toward Moscow very similar to those that prevailed during the half-century of the Cold War.
"Putin has made it clear that he wants to overthrow the European order of the last 30 years, take control of his neighborhood, and destabilize democratic societies wherever they may be. Hence this crisis goes far beyond Ukraine," said Daniel Hamilton, the State Department's former No. 2 for European affairs, in an interview.* In the coming weeks there will be much speculation as to whether this is the beginning of a new cold war in Europe, which has seen the Kremlin invade a sovereign country of 44 million inhabitants, the second largest on the continent and second only to Russia itself, under all sorts of pretexts.
The contours of the new geopolitical framework have already begun to be drawn with the response adopted by NATO, the EU and the U.S., which has recovered its raison d'être in Europe, where it had 90,000 military personnel permanently stationed before the crisis. The eastern borders of the continent have been reinforced; the first steps have been taken to block the Russian economy from the international market with the most draconian sanctions against Moscow in history. These are the first sketches of a containment policy that, in the worst-case scenario, could lead to something similar to a new Iron Curtain, the unofficial border that divided the continent into two ideological blocs after the end of World War II.
Strategy of Containment
"The strategy then was to wear Russia down so that it was unable to compete with the vibrant Western economies. It's going to take time, but we'll see it again," Hamilton believes.* One of the costs of that strategy will be the militarization of Europe, forced by Putin's determination to create puppet states along its borders to serve as a buffer against NATO, an organization that has for years cultivated cooperation with Russia while expanding eastward, ignoring Russia's protests. The Russian interventions in Georgia, Ukraine and Belarus in recent years cannot be explained otherwise. None of those interventions, however, match the current invasion in its severity.
Biden has already announced the additional deployment of 7,000 U.S. troops to Europe, alongside those deployed by the United Kingdom in the Baltic countries and by France in Romania. The paradigm shift is not a bad short-term deal for the U.S., despite the president's intention to focus his efforts on rebuilding the American middle class after decades of foreign interventions. The U.S. arms industry is set to be the biggest beneficiary of rearmament — the same fate that has befallen its energy sector, as Europe seeks to reduce its dependence on Russian hydrocarbons. Last year, the U.S. became the leading exporter of liquefied natural gas to the continent.
US Presence in Europe
Washington's ascendancy should also be strengthened among those countries that have questioned, in one way or another, its massive presence in Europe. "This threat will expose some of the misconceptions that have prevailed over the past 30 years," says Peter Fever,** a former security council adviser in the Clinton and Bush administrations.* "Such as the naiveté shown by Germany in thinking it could make money with Russia without contributing to creating a monster, or that shown by France in believing it can handle world problems without counting on the U.S."*
But these short-term benefits may eventually turn into a burden; the world is returning to a dangerous struggle between great powers. Until now, the U.S. was almost exclusively focused on containing China, but it will no longer be able to dismiss Russia as a minor nuisance after seeing its willingness to blow up its neighbor’s borders and regain the imperialist trappings of the Soviet era. Three years ago, Congress concluded that, based on a Pentagon report, the U.S. "could be overwhelmed if forced to fight on two or more fronts simultaneously."*
What it now faces are two authoritarian regimes willing to change the rules of the game and undermine democracy. Ukraine is a good example. "Its potential NATO membership has no substance. It's not on the table; hence it's nothing more than a pretext for Putin," Hamilton says. "What he can't stand is for Ukraine to become an alternative model to his regime in Russia, a prosperous and democratic country. That's why he wants to subjugate it, to reintegrate it into Greater Russia or turn it into an obedient puppet state."*
*Editor's Note: These quotations, accurately translated, could not be verified.
**Editor's Note: This individual's name could not be verified.
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