Mexico, the US and an Unrestrained Trump?

Published in El Heraldo de México
(Mexico) on 13 May 2022
by José Carreño Figueras (link to originallink to original)
Translated from by Adam Wambeke. Edited by Gillian Palmer.
The relationship between Mexico and the United States is complicated because it's asymmetrical.

The relationship between Mexico and the United States is complicated because it's asymmetrical. So much so that, according to some former U.S. officials, sometimes the most extreme actions are dismissed because of legal objections and domestic political reasons.

One basis for the bilateral relationship is that, for national security reasons, the U.S. wishes to avoid actions that would lead to the destabilization of Mexico, given the economic and political consequences of a crisis in a neighboring country.

But what if there was an American government that didn't care?

That's one message in the book "A Sacred Oath," by former Secretary of Defense Mark Esper, who claims that if Donald Trump did not order the bombing of illegal drug laboratories in Mexico, or the sending of 250,000 troops to the border to prevent the arrival of Central American immigrants, it was because of the objections of his collaborators.

As for being capable of bombing illegal laboratories in Mexico, they could have and can do it, Esper wrote. But that is illegal and is not done to friendly countries; the troops on the border would have been a domestic political and legal problem.

But with only a little more than two years before the next presidential election in the United States, the Mexican government might wonder what it would be like to live, or coexist, with a country where it seems to have fewer and fewer friends, and a regime where conspiracies and immediate political frustrations guide decision-making.

According to current estimates, it's possible that the Republican Party will win the midterm elections in November, when control of Congress is at stake, as well as the presidential election in 2024.

The problem is that this is a Republican Party dominated by conspiracy theorists. Those who, like Texas Gov. Greg Abbott, talk about "invasions" of undocumented immigrants, that the Mexican administration does not control its territory and that a large cabal of pedophiles made up of Democrats and liberals is based in the nonexistent basement of a Washington pizzeria.

Or about election fraud with no evidence.

The predominance of conspiracy theories among Republicans is largely due to Donald Trump, who managed to amalgamate around himself already existing trends and seeks to return to power with the same notions of nationalism, xenophobia and racism.

It is the same man who, in addition to inquiring about the possibility of bombing drug laboratories in Mexico, began the construction of a fence on the border and pressured the government of President Andrés Manuel López Obrador to use the military to stop the caravans of Central American immigrants and to accept that thousands of presumed asylum seekers in the United States should be crammed in together on the Mexican side.

Many actions of the Trump administration were stopped by collaborators with a clear vision of legal, legislative and political situations, but a second Trump — or Trumpist — administration may not have that restraint.


La relación entre México y Estados Unidos es complicada porque es asimétrica. Tanto que, según algunos exfuncionarios estadounidenses, a veces sus acciones más extremas son descartadas por objeciones legales y razones políticas internas.


Una de las bases en la relación bilateral es que por seguridad nacional, EU desea evitar acciones que lleven a la desestabilización de México, ante las consecuencias económicas y políticas de una crisis en un país vecino.


Pero, ¿y si hubiera un gobierno estadounidense que no se preocupara?


Ese es un mensaje en el libro A Sacred Oath, del exsecretario de Defensa Mark Esper, quien afirma que si Donald Trump no ordenó el bombardeo de laboratorios de drogas ilegales en México, o el envío de 250 mil soldados a la frontera para prevenir la llegada de migrantes centroamericanos, fue por las objeciones de sus colaboradores.


De poder bombardear laboratorios ilegales en México podían y pueden hacerlo, indica Esper. Pero eso es ilegal y no se hace a países amigos; las tropas en la frontera habrían sido un problema político y legal interno.


Pero... A poco más de dos años de las próximas elecciones en Estados Unidos, el gobierno mexicano podría preguntarse cómo sería vivir, o convivir, con un país donde parece tener cada vez menos amigos, y un régimen donde las conspiraciones y las frustraciones políticas inmediatas guíen la toma de decisiones.


De acuerdo con las actuales estimaciones, es posible que el Partido Republicano gane los comicios de noviembre próximo, cuando esté en juego el control del Poder Legislativo, y las elecciones presidenciales de 2024.


El problema es que se trata de un Partido Republicano dominado por teóricos de la conspiración, de esos que como el gobernador de Texas, Greg Abbott, hablan de "invasiones" de migrantes indocumentados, de que la administración mexicana no controla su territorio, de que una gran cábala de pedófilos integrada por demócratas y liberales se basa en el inexistente sótano de una pizzería de Washington.


O en una trampa electoral sin pruebas.


El predominio de tesis conspirativas entre los republicanos se debe en buena medida a Trump, que logró amalgamar a su alrededor tendencias ya existentes, y busca regresar al poder con las mismas nociones de nacionalismo, xenofobia y racismo.


Es el mismo hombre que amén de preguntar sobre la posibilidad de bombardear laboratorios de drogas en México, comenzó la construcción de una barda en la frontera y presionó al gobierno del presidente Andrés Manuel López Obrador a usar las Fuerzas Armadas para detener las caravanas de migrantes centroamericanos y aceptar que miles de presuntos peticionarios de asilo en EU se apiñaran en el lado mexicano.


Muchas acciones del gobierno de Trump fueron detenidas por colaboradores con una visión clara de situaciones legales, legislativas y políticas, pero un segundo gobierno Trump, o trumpista, puede no tener esos frenos...
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